CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas

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1 CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas October 15 A Tale of Two Utica s Paul Kralovic Canadians tend to first think of the vast potential of the Utica Shale located in Québec while those south of the border consider the fastest-growing shale play in the United States, located in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Both are correct, the Utica Shale is connected by geology but separated by two nations. This article reviews both. The Utica Shale is among the oldest and most widespread of black shales in North America, stretching from Pennsylvania and New York to Québec. While the southern portion of the Utica is located in the Appalachian Basin, the northern part is located between Québec City and Montreal, along the St. Lawrence Lowlands, as shown in the top right corner of Figure 1. Utica Shale (Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio) As of October 15, the Utica Shale is producing 3.1 billion cubic feet a day (Bcfd) of dry shale gas, up dramatically from 1.5 Bcfd in September 1. The initial production started in June 11 and it is now the fourth largest shale play, behind the Marcellus Shale (15.5 Bcfd), East Texas Eagle Ford Shale (. Bcfd), the Haynesville Shale (3. Bcfd) and the Barnett Shale (3.5 Bcfd). 3 Figure demonstrates the rapid production of shale gas in the US from January 1 to October 15. The rise of the Marcellus (dark red line) and the Utica Shale (dark green line) is dramatic. Figure : US Dry Shale Gas Production (Bcfd) Figure 1: The Utica Shales Source: EIA Source: Utica Shale News website 1 CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas Editorial Committee: Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Jon Rozhon, Allan Fogwill About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at or contact us at info@ceri.ca. The Utica Shale is the fastest growing shale on the continent and is increasingly drawing attention. Right now, all eyes are on the Marcellus Shale, the largest producing shale gas basin in North America; one doesn t have to stray very far to see additional significant potential because the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale are both located in the enormous Appalachian Basin. The Utica Shale, located in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, is older than the Marcellus Shale and underlies the Marcellus in much of West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and western New York. The Marcellus is a Devonian-aged shale that lies at a depth range of 5,-,5 ft., 5 while the Utica Shale is Ordovician-aged shale that lies at a depth range of, to 1, ft.

2 Page In 1, the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) mean estimates of undiscovered, technically recoverable unconventional resources indicate that the Utica Shale contains about 3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas, about 9 million barrels of oil, as well as million barrels of natural gas liquids (NGLs), such as ethane, butane and propane. 7 More recently, however, estimates suggest that the potential for recoverable natural gas is higher than expected. West Virginia University (WVU) estimates the Utica Shale contains technically recoverable resources of 7 Tcf of natural gas and around 1.9 billion barrels of oil. And these estimates do not include the overlying vast potential of the Marcellus Shale in the area. While industry pundits suggest that Marcellus and Utica production could reach 3 Bcfd by 1, 9 the short-term outlook, however, is less optimistic. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expecting declines in the Marcellus, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Niobrara, Permian and the Utica, making it four consecutive months of decreases in the six plays. 1 Figure illustrates these declines in production, with the exception of the Utica where production challenges the expectations and remains at record-levels. With the decrease in crude oil prices, drilling activity has shifted from wet gas, or natural gas liquids-rich regions, to the dry gas regions of the Utica, in eastern Ohio. 11 Utica Shale (Québec) While the first oil drilling in Québec dates back to the 1s, the province s oil and gas exploration and production have been minimal to date. Québec s hydrocarbon resources are, however, attracting more attention particularly shale gas in the Utica Shale in the St. Lawrence Lowlands, between Montreal and Québec City, extending up the St. Lawrence River. Exploration and production companies (E&Ps) draw comparisons between Québec s Utica to the Barnett Shale, one of the most prolific shale formations in North America, and the Utica Shale in the Appalachians. Wellington West Capital Markets suggest that initial estimates of the resource potential play could be 5 Tcf of recoverable resources, with the best prospects lying within a corridor that runs parallel with the St. Lawrence River southeast of Montreal up to Québec City. 1 Questerre Energy Corporation, an E&P company with just under one million acres, has its original gas-in-place (OGIP) for the Utica Shale estimated between 135 Tcf and 3 TCF. Junex, the largest net acreage landholder in the Utica Shale play, estimates total undiscovered OGIP resources of approximately 9 Tcf and net recoverable unrisked resources of 3.5 Tcf. 13 Table 1 summarizes the various resource estimates of the St. Lawrence Lowlands by sedimentary basin. The oil and gas potential of the Utica play can be divided into three separate basins: Lower Ordovician Hydrothermal Dolomites, Middle to Upper Hydrothermal Dolomites and Upper Ordovician Utica Shale. 1 The Upper Ordovician Utica Shale is both gas- and oil-rich and is located near Québec City. 15 Table 1: Summary of the Estimates of the St. Lawrence Lowlands Play type Lower Ordovician Hydrothermal Dolomites Middle to Upper Ordovician Hydrothermal Dolomites Upper Ordovician Utica Shale Nature of the resource Source: National Institute for Scientific Research 1 Estimated median volume (Bcf or barrels) Gas Gas 11 Gas 17,73 Oil 1,7,, Given the Utica s proximity to US Northeast markets, the shale gas is expected to command a premium to NYMEX, whereas the more developed and active shale plays in northeastern British Columbia and Alberta are located far from consuming markets. Currently, the Québec government is assembling knowledge with the objective of providing suitable conditions for developing its oil and gas resources. 17 The Government have stated that they are introducing a new law that will address issues of resource economics and regulatory processes. To facilitate the completion of the environmental assessment of shale gas and further studies, in 11, the Government of Québec introduced Bill 1 that exempted holders of oil and gas exploration licenses from performing their work obligations until such time as determined by the government. Bill 1 was replaced by Bill 5 in 1, extending the Act beyond June 13, 1. 1 The Québec Government plans to introduce its new energy policy in the coming months, as well as the results of its strategic environmental assessment for oil

3 Page 3 and gas development in the province. It is expected that a new hydrocarbon legislation should be presented in 1. CERI s latest report, An Assessment of the Economic and Competitive Attributes of Oil and Natural Gas Development in Québec, examines the unconventional oil and gas resources in Quebec (including the Utica Shale, the Macasty Shale on Anticosti Island and the Gaspe Peninsula) and considers the potential for resource development in the province under three scenarios (a Reference Case Scenario, a Québec Emissions Plan Scenario and an International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook (WEO) 5 Scenario). For additional information, visit Endnotes 1 Utica Shale News website, Maps, EIA website, Energy in Brief, Shale in the United States, US dry shale gas production figure data, energy_in_brief/article/shale_in_the_united_states.cfm 3 ibid EIA website, Energy in Brief, Shale in the United States, shale_in_the_united_states.cfm 5 From Shale to Shining Shale, Deutsche Bank, July,, pp. 35. Marcellus Center for Outreach and Research (MCOR), Utica Shale Depth Map, UticaDepth.gif 7 United States Geological Survey (USGC), USGS Releases First Assessment of Shale Gas Resources in the Utica Shale: 3 trillion cubic feet, Release Date, 1//1, A Geological Play Book for Utica Shale Appalachian Basin Exploration, Final Report, July 1, 15, wp-content/uploads/final_utica_report_7115.pdf, pp. xv. 9 Oilandgasinvestor.com website, Utica Shale bulks Up, Leslie Haines, Platt s Gas Daily, EIA expects Marcellus declines, Haynesville gains, September 15, 15, P=m&e= / GD_15915.xml?artnum=cebbbf95-e7-9b5-a3e _ 11 Platt s Gas Daily, Dry gas Utica has vast potential, players say, August 17, P=m&e= / GD_1517.xml?artnum=caaadd1-31--b979- e1cebe39_3 1 Energy Strategy The Utica Shale Gas Play, Part II, May,. 13 Petroleum & Natural Gas Resource Potential of Québec Shales - Exploration & Production, Junex, Presented by Peter Dorrins, January, 1, p Stephan Séjourné & Michel Malo, Geology and Hydrocarbon Potential of Southern Québec Sedimentary Basins, National Institute for Scientific Research, Water Earth Environment Centre, Research Report R155, January 15, pp ibid 1 Stephan Séjourné & Michel Malo, Geology and Hydrocarbon Potential of Southern Québec Sedimentary Basins, National Institute for Scientific Research, Water Earth Environment Centre, Research Report R155, January 15, pp Québec Government, Highlights of Hydrocarbon Option, 1 National Assembly, Bill 5 (1, Chapter, An Act to amend the Act to limit oil and gas activities and other legislative provisions, Assented to June13, 1, telecharge.php?type=5&file=1ca.pdf

4 Page Henry Hub/AECO-C Beginning of Next Month Spot Price (US$/MMBtu) Henry Hub/Chicago Beginning of Next Month Spot Price (US$/MMBtu) 1 Differential Henry Hub AECO-C 1 15 Differential Henry Hub Chicago Jan-5 Jul- Jan- Jul-9 Jan-11 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-15-7 Jan-5 Jul- Jan- Jul-9 Jan-11 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-15 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide. Henry Hub/Rockies Beginning of Next Month Spot Price (US$/MMBtu) Henry Hub/Southern California Beginning of Next Month Spot Price (US$/MMBtu) 15 Differential Henry Hub Rockies Differential Henry Hub Southern California Jan-5 Jul- Jan- Jul-9 Jan-11 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul Jan-5 Jul- Jan- Jul-9 Jan-11 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-15 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide. CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

5 SOURCE: Canadian Gas Association. SOURCE: CERI, Canadian Gas Association, Statistics Canada. Page , Canadian Heating Degree Days 5-Year Avg US Heating Degree Days 5-Year Avg SOURCE: NOAA. SOURCE: CERI, NOAA, EIA. Canadian Heating Degree Days vs Residential and Commercial Consumption Degree Days BCFPD 1, 7 Degree Days Consumption 1, Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 US Heating Degree Days vs Residential and Commercial Consumption Degree Days 1, BCFPD Degree Days Consumption 1, Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15

6 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas SOURCE: Environment Canada. SOURCE: NOAA. SOURCE: Environment Canada. SOURCE: NOAA. Page

7 SOURCE: Environment Canada. SOURCE: NOAA. SOURCE: NOAA. Page 7

8 SOURCE: Statistics Canada. SOURCE: Statistics Canada, NEB. SOURCE: EIA. SOURCE: EIA. Page Canadian Consumption By Sector (Bcfpd) 1 1 Industrial & Power Commercial Residential 1 1 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 US Consumption By Sector (Bcfpd) 1 1 Industrial Electric Power Commercial Residential 1 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 Canadian Marketable Production By Province/Region (Bcfpd) 1 BC, Yukon, NWT AB SK E. Coast Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 US Marketable Production (Bcfpd) 9 US Total Louisiana GOM Federal Waters Texas Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

9 Page BC, Yukon, NWT Marketable Production (Bcfpd) Saskatchewan Marketable Production (Bcfpd) Alberta Marketable Production (Bcfpd) East Coast Marketable Production (Bcfpd) SOURCE: Statistics Canada, NEB. SOURCE: Statistics Canada, NEB. SOURCE: Statistics Canada, NEB. SOURCE: Statistics Canada, NEB.

10 Page System Field Receipts TransCanada + Westcoast; Monthly Average (Bcfpd) Canadian Gas Exports to the US By Export Point - West (Bcfpd) Kingsgate Monchy Elmore Huntingdon Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep Alberta System Deliveries (Bcfpd) Empress McNeill AB-BC Alliance Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Canadian Gas Exports to the US By Export Point - East (Bcfpd) Emerson Iroquois Others Niagara Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 SOURCE: CERI. SOURCE: CERI. SOURCE: NEB. SOURCE: NEB. CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

11 SOURCE: NEB. SOURCE: NEB. SOURCE: NEB, EIA. SOURCE: NEB. Page 11 US Imports of Canadian Gas By US Region (Bcfpd) 1 West MidWest East 1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Total US Pipeline Gas Imports (Bcfpd) 1 1 Canada Mexico 1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug Average Canadian Export Price By US Region (C$/GJ) West MidWest East Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Canadian Gas Imports By Import Point (Bcfpd) Courtright Sarnia St. Clair Other Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15

12 Page 1 Canadian Working Gas Storage (Bcf, Month-end) Canadian Storage by Region (Bcf, Month-end) 1, Year Avg West East Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. US Lower- Working Gas Storage (Bcf, Month-end) US Storage by Region (Bcf, Month-end),5,,5 East West Producing Region 5-Year Avg. 1 15, 3,5 3,5 3, 3,,5,5,, 1,5 1, 5 1,5 1, 5 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

13 Page 13 WC_IJ_WD Western Canada Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) Eastern Canadian Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) 1 5-Year Avg Year Avg SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. Canadian Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) 15 5-Year Avg SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily.

14 Page 1 US Western Consuming Region Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) 1 5-Year Avg US Producing Region Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) 5-Year Avg US Eastern Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) 5-Year Avg US Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) 5-Year Avg SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

15 Page Eastern US LNG Imports By Facility (Bcf) Cove Point Elba Island Everett NE Gateway Neptune Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 US LNG Imports By Origin (Bcf) Other Nigeria Trinidad Norway Qatar Yemen Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 US GoM LNG Imports By Facility (Bcf) Freeport Lake Charles Sabine Pass Cameron Golden Pass Gulf LNG Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Volume-Weighted Average LNG Price (US$/MMBtu) SOURCE: US DOE. SOURCE: US DOE. SOURCE: US DOE. Note: There were no LNG imports for the month of November 1. SOURCE: US DOE.

16 Page 1 Japan US LNG Exports to Japan (Bcf) Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 US LNG Re-Exports By Destination (Bcf) 7 Mexico Brazil Japan Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 SOURCE: US DOE, NEB. SOURCE: US DOE. SOURCE: EIA, US DOE. SOURCE: US DOE. CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

17 SOURCE: CERI, CAODC, Baker Hughes. SOURCE: CERI, CAODC. SOURCE: CERI, CAODC. SOURCE: CERI, CAODC. Page 17 North American Active Rigs 3, US WCSB,5, 1,5 1, 5 Jan- Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 WCSB Active Rigs by Province Weekly Average 7 SK AB BC Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 Canadian Rig Fleet Utilization Weekly Average Active Rigs 1, 9 Active Rigs Total Rig Drilling Fleet Jan- Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 Western Canada Active Rigs Weekly Average 7 5-Year Avg Week Number

18 SOURCE: CERI, Baker Hughes. SOURCE: CERI, Baker Hughes. SOURCE: CERI, Baker Hughes. Page 1 US Total Active Rigs, Oil-directed Gas-directed Gas-directed %,, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, Jan- Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 US Gulf of Mexico Active Rigs 1 Oil-directed Gas-directed 1 Jan- Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 1% 9% % 7% % 5% % 3% % 1% % US Total Active Rigs,5 Total Oil-directed GoM Gas-directed Onshore Gas-directed, 1,5 1, 5 Jan- Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas