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1 !"#$%&'()*+%,-#$%.*&,/0*1)$2,0$3, %4#,5#2607)0%)8$,89,/#+%#*$,-0$030, F07)G7,-6)10%#,H1A07%+,-8$+8*%).1, C$)D#*+)%&,89,I)7%8*)0, :0**&,-60*;#, H7#60$3)7,L#%#8*8682)706,>M7#, N#&;O0D);=,H7#60$3, I06#$%)$0,N03)Q, C$)D#*+)%&,89,,E-, E*)0$,L#$8.$8+, P0%.*06,N#+8.*7#+,?, <$D)*8$1#$%06,B%.3)#+, C$)D#*+)%&,89,,P8*%4#*$,E-,

2

3 Glacier Overview for 2005 Region Number Area (km 2 ) SE NC CC SC VI NI SI NR CR SR St Elias North Coast Central Coast South Coast Vancouver Island North Interior South Interior North Rockies Central Rockies South Rockies , Totals 17,595 26,728.3 Bolch, Menounos & Wheate, Remote Sens. Environ., 2010.

4 Mean Ice Thickness (2005) and Average Thinning Rate ( )* Region <H>** (m) Rate (m/yr) SE NC CC SC VI NI SI NR CR SR St Elias North Coast Central Coast South Coast Vancouver Island North Interior South Interior North Rockies Central Rockies South Rockies *Schiefer, Menounos & Wheate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2007 **Clarke, et al. J. Climate, 2013.

5 Mean Ice Thickness (2005) and Average Thinning Rate ( )* Region <H>** (m) Rate (m/yr) Lifetime (yr) SE NC CC SC VI NI SI NR CR SR St Elias North Coast Central Coast South Coast Vancouver Island North Interior South Interior North Rockies Central Rockies South Rockies *Schiefer, Menounos & Wheate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2007 **Clarke, et al. J. Climate, 2013.

6 B81#,H1A07%+,

7 !"#$%&' ()*'+,-.'/'

8 !"#$%&' ()*'+0..'/'

9 !"#$%&' ()*'+0-.'/'

10 !"#$%&' ()*'+1..'/'

11 !"#$%&' ()*'+1-.'/'

12 !"#$%&' ()*'+2..'/'

13 Percentage Change in Area and Volume of Ice vs. Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA)

14 Percentage Change in Area and Volume of Ice vs. Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA)

15 Percentage Change in Area and Volume of Ice

16

17 Evaluation of IPCC (2007) GCMs Radi! & Clarke, Evaluation of IPCC models performance in simulation twentieth century climatologies and weather patterns over North America. Journal of Climate.

18 IPCC CLIMATE PROJECTIONS Alley et al. (2007)

19

20 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission C-band radar Sampling: 3 arcsec (~90m) Ice Mask Shape files Prepared at University of Northern BC from various sources Glaciation Model Inputs CELL SIZE 200 m x 200 m (standard mode)

21 -6)10%#,(8*7)$2,

22 Representation of Past and Future Climate

23 North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Time span 1977-present Spatial coverage North America, Greenland & Iceland (parts of Asia, South America, Europe) Grid scale 32 km x 32 km Vertical layers 45 Fields (3-hourly) Pressure Temperature Precipitation Moisture content Ice content Wind " and much else

24 58"$+706)$2,89,!#1A#*0%.*#,0$3, Jarosch, A.H, F.S. Anslow & G.K.C. Clarke High-resolution precipitation and temperature downscaling for glacier model. Climate Dynamics, 38,

25 NARR Topography Southwestern Canada

26 DEM Topography Southwestern Canada (200 m)

27 NARR Temperature (southwest Canada)

28 Downscaled Temperature (southwest Canada)

29 Linear Theory of Orographic Precipitation WIND Smith, R.B J. Hydrol. 282, 2-9. Smith, R.B., & I. Barstad J. Atmos. Sci., 61, Crochet, P., T. Jóhannesson, et al J. Hydrometeorol. 8,

30 Linear Theory of Orographic Precipitation WIND Smith, R.B J. Hydrol. 282, 2-9. Smith, R.B., & I. Barstad J. Atmos. Sci., 61, Crochet, P., T. Jóhannesson, et al J. Hydrometeorol. 8,

31 Linear Theory of Orographic Precipitation WIND Smith, R.B J. Hydrol. 282, 2-9. Smith, R.B., & I. Barstad J. Atmos. Sci., 61, Crochet, P., T. Jóhannesson, et al J. Hydrometeorol. 8,

32 NARR Precipitation: Southwest Canada (2000 AD)

33 Downscaled Precipitation: Southwest Canada (2000 AD)

34 Precipitation Bias Factor Based on analysis of glacier outlines

35 Representation of Past and Future Climate

36 Delta Method

37 L0++,E060$7#,0$3,H7#,(68",L83#6+,

38 Melt Model Modified degree-day model which includes potential direct solar radiation Hock, R J. Glaciol., 45,

39 Snowfall Model 32 km

40 Snowfall Model SNOW 2 C RAIN 32 km

41 South Coast :#"#72&(B&"89'(,><77<7;($#,&9'(#78(#(:&8(9,$&99(648&"(!"#$%&'()"$*"+),-(./'(84<C(/.*//DEFG!H1IJI/-I..E/0*/*(

42 South Coast Ice

43 South Coast dot(b)

44 F*8O#7%)8$+,

45 Modelled Mean Balance Rate : MPI-ESM-LR

46 Modelled Mean Balance Rate : MPI-ESM-LR

47 Modelled Mean Balance Rate : MPI-ESM-LR

48 Modelled Mean Balance Rate : MPI-ESM-LR

49 Modelled Mean Balance Rate : MPI-ESM-LR

50 Ice Dynamics Model Vertically-integrated velocity fields Energy transport Mass conservation equation Debris transport

51

52 St Elias region

53 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 1980

54 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 1980

55 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 1990

56 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 2000

57 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 2010

58 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 2020

59 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 2030

60 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 2040

61 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 2050

62 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 2060

63 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 2070

64 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 2080

65 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 2090

66 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 2100

67 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 2000

68 St Elias Region ECHAM A1B 2100

69

70

71

72

73 Projected Loss of Glacier Volume BC Coast (SE + NC + CC + SC + VI) Scenario A1B

74 Projected Loss of Glacier Volume BC Interior (NI + SI) Scenario A1B

75 Projected Loss of Glacier Volume Rockies (NR + CR + SR) Scenario A1B

76 Projected Loss of Glacier Volume All regions (BC + AB) Scenario A1B

77 Projected Loss of Glacier Volume All regions (BC + AB) Scenario A2

78 Projected Loss of Glacier Volume All regions (BC + AB) Scenario B1

79 Projected Loss of Glacier Volume All regions (BC + AB) ECHAM Scenarios A1B, A2, B1

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