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4 Geoethics Ethical Challenges and Case Studies in Earth Sciences Max Wyss International Centre for Earth Simulation, Geneva, Switzerland Silvia Peppoloni INGV Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy; IAPG International Association for Promoting Geoethics, Rome, Italy AMSTERDAM BOSTON HEIDELBERG LONDON NEW YORK OXFORD PARIS SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO SINGAPORE SYDNEY TOKYO

5 Elsevier Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, The Netherlands The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, UK 225 Wyman Street, Waltham, MA 02451, USA Copyright 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Details on how to seek permission, further information about the Publisher s permissions policies and our arrangements with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the Copyright Licensing Agency, can be found at our website: This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the Publisher (other than as may be noted herein). Notices Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical treatment may become necessary. Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility. To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein. ISBN: Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Geoethics : ethical challenges and case studies in earth sciences / [edited by] Max Wyss, Silvia Peppoloni. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN (hardback) 1. Geology Research Moral and ethical aspects. 2. Geophysics Research Moral and ethical aspects. 3. Research Moral and ethical aspects Case studies. I. Wyss, Max, editor. II. Peppoloni, Silvia, editor. QE40.G dc British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library For information on all Elsevier publications visit our web site at iv

6 Contents Contributors Preface Acknowledgements xvii xxi xxiii Section I Philosophical Reflections 1. The Meaning of Geoethics Silvia Peppoloni and Giuseppe Di Capua The Birth of Geoethics 3 What Is Geoethics? 4 Issues with the Development of Geoethics 5 An Etymological Starting Point: Individual and Social Responsibility 6 Responsibility of Geoscientists 8 An Ethical Commitment: The Geoscientist s Promise 8 Outlook and Strategies for the Future 10 Conclusions: Questions for a Public Debate on Geoethics 11 References Geoethics: Reenvisioning Applied Philosophy Ingrid Leman Stefanovic Part I: The Place of Ethics 16 Part II: Geoethics, Risk Assessment, and Environmental Decision Making 19 Part III: A New Role for Ethicists 21 References The Imperative of Sustainable Development: Elements of an Ethics of Using Georesources Responsibly Armin Grunwald Challenge 26 Making the Vision of Sustainable Development Work 27 v

7 vi Contents Sustainability Principles Relevant to Geoethics 29 Protection of Human Health 29 Securing the Satisfaction of Basic Needs 30 Sustainable Use of Renewable Resources 30 Sustainable Use of Nonrenewable Resources 31 Sustainable Use of the Environment as a Sink 31 Avoidance of Unacceptable Technical Risks 32 Conservation of Nature s Cultural Functions 32 Participation in Societal Decision-making Processes 33 Equal Opportunities 33 Sustainability Assessments for Geotechnologies and Geosciences 34 References Ethics of Disaster Research Ilan Kelman Outline of the Problem 37 Interference with Disaster-Related Activities 39 Disaster Research Outcomes 41 Discussion 43 Conclusions 46 References Toward an Inclusive Geoethics Commonalities of Ethics in Technology, Science, Business, and Environment Thomas Potthast Domain and Challenges of Geoethics 50 Interdisciplinary Application-Oriented Ethics and the Tübingen Approach to Ethics in the Sciences 50 Cases and Fields of Geoethics 51 Professional Ethics of Scientific and Engineering Geosciences 51 Ethical Evaluation Procedures for Specific Projects 52 Respect for (Religions of) Nature and Dimensions of Land Ethics 54 Outlook: Geoethics and Sustainable Development 54 References Humans Place in Geophysics: Understanding the Vertigo of Deep Time Telmo Pievani Denialism in Science 57 Discussion: Counterintuitive Science and Our Teleological Minds 60

8 Contents vii How Can One Answer Denialism in Science? 63 Conclusions 65 References 66 Section II Geoscience Community 7. Research Integrity: The Bedrock of the Geosciences Tony Mayer Introduction 71 Some Famous Geoscience Cases 74 The World Conferences on RI and their Outcomes 75 The Singapore Statement 76 Conclusions 80 References Formulating the American Geophysical Union s Scientific Integrity and Professional Ethics Policy: Challenges and Lessons Learned Linda C. Gundersen and Randy Townsend Introduction 84 Building the AGU Scientific Integrity and Professional Ethics Policy 85 Charge to the Task Force and Foundational Documents 85 Structure of the Policy 86 Challenges and Lessons Learned in Evaluating and Resolving Scientific Misconduct Allegations 88 Importance of Education and a Positive Research Environment 90 Conclusions 91 References Ethical Behavior in Relation to the Scholarly Community: A Discussion on Plagiarism Stefano Solarino Introduction 95 Definition of Plagiarism 97 The Legal Aspects of Plagiarism 98 The Different Forms of Plagiarism 99 Detecting Plagiarism 100 Self-plagiarism 101 The Roles of Ethics and the Scientific Community 103 References 106

9 viii Contents Section III The Ethics Of Practice 10. When Scientific Evidence is not Welcome Paul G. Richards 11. M max : Ethics of the Maximum Credible Earthquake Roger Bilham Introduction 120 Right and Wrong: Gut Decisions and Approaching Danger 121 Earthquake Prediction and Forecast, and a Vulnerable Public 122 A Hypothetical Case of Nuclear Power Involving Ethical Decisions 125 Quantifying Future Earthquakes where Few Have Occurred Historically 127 Societal Pressures and Moral Principles 128 The Planned Jaitapur Nuclear Power Plant in India 130 Is M max Appropriate for Public Consumption? 131 M max in the New Madrid Seismic Zone 132 M max for the Himalaya 134 Discussion 136 Conclusions 137 Postscript 138 References Geoethics: Tenets and Praxis Two Examples from India Vinod K. Gaur Perspective 141 Tehri 142 Jaitapur 147 The Critique 150 The Epilogue 151 Appendix: The Context of Geoethics 152 Notes 156 References Corporate Money Trumps Science William Gawthrop (Retired) Introduction 161 Where the Trouble Began 162 The Larger Study 164 The Fallout from These Studies 167

10 Contents ix Conclusions 167 References Shortcuts in Seismic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Power Plants are Not Acceptable Max Wyss Introduction 169 The Assignment 170 A Compendium of Errors 171 The Resolution 173 Conclusions 173 References Geoethical and Social Aspects of Warning for Low-Frequency and Large-Impact Events like Tsunamis Stefano Tinti, Alberto Armigliato, Gianluca Pagnoni and Filippo Zaniboni Introduction 176 Measurement Errors and Prediction Uncertainties 177 Accurate, Successful, Useful Predictions 178 Sources of Uncertainties in Tsunami Forecast Science 180 Tsunami Warnings 182 Tsunami Hazard 183 Tsunami Predictions and Tsunami Warning 185 The Optimal TWS 188 Conclusions 190 Acknowledgments 191 References What Foreign Rescue Teams Should Do and Must Not Do in Muslim Countries Mohamad amin Skandari Introduction 194 What First Responders Should Do and Respect Generally 194 Humanity 194 Impartiality 194 Neutrality 195 Fair Allocation of Resources 195 Making Decisions under Fire 195 Meeting the Special Needs of Vulnerable Populations 195 What Humanitarian Workers and First Responders Should Do and Respect, When They Are Working in an Affected Muslim Community 196 Islam 196

11 x Contents Note 197 Conclusion 200 References 201 Section IV Communication with The Public, Officials and The Media 17. Some Comments on the First Degree Sentence of the L Aquila Trial Marco Mucciarelli What Should Have Been Predicted 206 The Role of Site Effects 207 The Benefit of Hindsight 207 Who Reassured Who 208 Is Earthquake Engineering Pointless? 209 Conclusions 209 References Risk Management: Roles and Responsibilities in the Decision-making Process Mauro Dolce and Daniela Di Bucci Introduction 212 Scientists and Decision-makers 213 Other Actors Influencing Decisions and Their Responsibilities 217 Final Remarks 220 References Communicating to the General Public Earthquake Prediction Information: Lessons Learned in Greece Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos Introduction 223 The VAN Predictions 227 Two Prediction Episodes 227 Prediction Episode 1: The September 7, 1999 Lethal Earthquake of Athens 228 Prediction Episode 2: The 2008 Storm of Earthquakes and Predictions 230 Concluding Remarks 235 References 236

12 Contents xi 20. Do Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps Address the Need of the Population? Max Wyss Introduction 240 The Need of the Population in Highly Seismic Regions to Know Their Risk 241 The Assumption Underlying the Probabilistic Method to Estimate Seismic Hazard and Risk 242 The Arbitrariness Governing the Probabilistic Method to Estimate Seismic Hazard and Risk 243 Testing the Probabilistic Method to Estimate Seismic Hazard and Risk 244 The Deterministic Approach to Assist the Population in Understanding Their Earthquake Risk 247 Conclusions 248 References Reflections on Ethics in Mapping as an Instrument and Result of Disaster Research Jessica Heesen, Daniel F. Lorenz, Martin Voss and Bettina Wenzel Part I: The Concepts of Risk, Vulnerability, and Resilience 252 Concepts of Risk 252 Concepts of Vulnerability 252 Concepts of Resilience 252 Part II: Mapping as Selective Representations 253 Forms of Selection 253 Reduction from Qualitative Processes to Quantitative Data 254 Selections as Origins of Interpretation 256 Part III: Ethical Questions of Risk Management and Interpretation of Maps 257 Conclusions 260 References Geoethics, Risk-Communication, and Scientific Issues in Earthquake Science Robert J. Geller Introduction 264 L Aquila-like Hypothetical Case 264 Funding and Ethics 266 Earthquake Prediction in Japan 266 The Fukushima Nuclear Accident 268

13 xii Contents Conclusions 270 References Extreme Sea Level Events, Coastal Risks, and Climate Changes: Informing the Players Eduardo Marone, Juliane C. Carneiro, Marcio M. Cintra, Andréa Ribeiro, Denis Cardoso and Carol Stellfeld Introduction 274 Coastline Changes in Response to Sea Level Rise 277 The Area Studied 277 The Local Dynamic 279 Method 280 IPCC Scenarios 282 Scientific Results 283 Discussion 297 Conclusions 298 Final Remarks 299 Acknowledgments 301 References 301 Section V Natural and Anthropogenic Hazards 24. Thoughts on Ethics in Volcanic Hazard Research Jurgen Neuberg Appropriate Method for Forecasting and Volcanic Risk Assessment 306 Biases in Communicating Volcanic Hazard and Risk 308 Volcanic Research Assets: Hoarding or Sharing 310 Conclusions 311 References 312 Further Reading Ethical Issues in the Decision-making for Earthquake Preparedness, Prediction, and Early Warning: A Discussion in the Perspective of Game Theory Zhongliang Wu Introduction 314 The Seismo-Illogical Cycle 314 The Ethical Paradox 316 Policy Selection Related to Earthquake Prediction 317 Concluding Remarks and Discussion 320

14 Contents xiii Acknowledgments 320 References Geoethics and Risk-Communication Issues in Japan s Disaster Management System Revealed by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Megumi Sugimoto Japan s Tsunami Countermeasures before the Tohoku Earthquake 324 Official Warning Information in Field Reports from Disaster Areas 329 Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station Accident 331 Japanese Research System 332 Dissemination of Information on Radioactive Particle Dispersion 332 Conclusions 332 Acknowledgment 333 References When Will Vesuvius Erupt? Why Research Institutes Must Maintain a Dialogue with the Public in a High-Risk Volcanic Area: The Vesuvius Museum Observatory Maddalena De Lucia Introduction 336 Previous Studies and Analysis on Public Communication of Volcanic Hazard 338 The Case Study of the Museum of Vesuvius Observatory 342 Analysis by/of the Public of the Museum of Vesuvius Observatory 343 Categories 344 Temporal Distribution 345 Origin of Visitors 346 Conclusions 347 References Voluntarism, Public Engagement, and the Role of Geosciences in Radioactive Waste Management Policy-Making Nic Bilham Failure of the Technocratic Approach to Radioactive Waste Management 352 Developing a New RWM Framework for the UK 353 Discussion and Conclusions 356 References 358

15 xiv Contents 29. Nuclear Waste Repositories and Ethical Challenges Peter Hocke Introduction 360 The Specific Complexity 360 Normative Ethics and Spaemann s Contradiction 362 Responsibility in Late-Modern Societies 364 Conclusions 365 References 367 Section VI Low Income and Indigenous Communities 30. Mining in Indigenous Regions: The Case of Tampakan, Philippines Daniel Hostettler Increasing Demand for Natural Resources 372 Indigenous Peoples Right to Determine Their Own Development 373 Diverging Interests between Investors and Affected Communities in Mining Projects 375 The Case of the Tampakan Copper Gold Project in the Philippines 376 Free 377 Prior 378 Informed 378 Consent 379 Conclusions 379 References On the Vulnerability of the Indigenous and Low-Income Population of Mexico to Natural Hazards. A Case Study: The Guerrero Region F. Ramón Zúñiga, Janette Merlo and Max Wyss Introduction 382 Some Basic Demographics of the State of Guerrero, Mexico 384 The SOVI from Ethnic Factors 384 Discussion 385 Estimating the Relative Impact of Earthquakes on Large and Small Communities 387 Conclusions 389 Acknowledgments 390 References 390

16 Contents xv 32. Ethics and Mining Moving beyond the Evident: A Case Study of Manganese Mining from Keonjhar District, India Madhumita Das Introduction 394 The Missing Ethics of Mining 394 Mining and Health 395 Living in the Midst of Manganese Dust and Contaminated Sewage 396 Mining in Odisha 397 A Case Study of Manganese Mines 397 Manganese Toxicity 399 Air and Noise Quality 400 Chemical Quality of Water 401 Results and Discussion 401 Mining Laws and Regulations: Are They Implemented? 402 Conclusions 404 References Geoethics and Geohazards: A Perspective from Low-Income Countries, an Indian Experience Shrikant Daji Limaye Introduction 410 Historical Background of Geoethics 410 Geohazards and Application of Geoethics 412 Creating Preparedness or Awareness in the Society 412 Mitigating Geohazards 415 Discussion and Conclusions 416 References 417 Index 419