Calculating Catastrophe Downloaded from by on 11/20/17. For personal use only.

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2 f(λ1/ λ3) = f(λ1/ λ2) f(λ2/ λ3) Gordon Woo ICP P tp.indd 2 Imperial College Press 6/6/11 9:42 AM

3 Published by Imperial College Press 57 Shelton Street Covent Garden London WC2H 9HE Distributed by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. 5 Toh Tuck Link, Singapore USA office: 27 Warren Street, Suite , Hackensack, NJ UK office: 57 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9HE British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. CALCULATING CATASTROPHE Copyright 2011 by Imperial College Press All rights reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without written permission from the Publisher. For photocopying of material in this volume, please pay a copying fee through the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA. In this case permission to photocopy is not required from the publisher. ISBN ISBN ISBN (pbk) ISBN (pbk) Printed in Singapore.

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5 Dedicated to the memory of C.K.W.

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7 Contents Cover photograph of Anak Krakatau xi Prologue: CHAOS, CRISIS AND CATASTROPHE 1 1 NATURAL HAZARDS Causation and Association Extra-Terrestrial Hazards Meteorological Hazards Geological Hazards Geomorphic Hazards Hydrological Hazards 27 2 SOCIETAL HAZARDS Political Violence Infectious Disease Pandemics Industrial and Transportation Accidents Fraud Catastrophe 55 3 A SENSE OF SCALE Size Scales of Natural Hazards Hazard Spatial Scales The Human Disaster Toll Models of a Fractal World 85 vii

8 viii Calculating Catastrophe 4 A MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY The Concept of Probability The Meaning of Uncertainty Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty Probability Ambiguity The Weighing of Evidence A MATTER OF TIME Temporal Models of Hazards Long-Term Data Records Statistics of Extremes CATASTROPHE COMPLEXITY Emergent Catastrophes Financial Crashes Ancillary Hazards TERRORISM A Thinking Man s Game Defeating Terrorist Networks Counter-Radicalization 183

9 Contents ix 8 FORECASTING Earthquake Forecasting Verification River Flows and Sea Waves Accelerating Approach to Criticality Evidence-Based Diagnosis DISASTER WARNING Decision in the Balance Evacuation The Wisdom of Experts DISASTER SCENARIOS Scenario Simulation Footprints and Vulnerability Fermi Problems CATASTROPHE COVER Probable Maximum Loss Coherent Risk Measures The Samaritan s Dilemma 280

10 x Calculating Catastrophe 12 CATASTROPHE RISK SECURITIZATION Catastrophe Bonds The Price of Innovation RISK HORIZONS Ecological Catastrophe Climate Change War and Conflict Resolution 317 Epilogue: BLACK AND RED SWANS 322 Bibliography 325 Index 347

11 Cover Photograph Anak Krakatau The photographer, Marco Fulle, is based in Trieste, Italy. Trained as a scientist in Genoa, he is passionate about capturing on film the majestic power of one of the great forces of Nature, taking personal risks for the advancement of volcano photography. Marco s notes indicate that this picture happened by chance. He saw and quickly shot the image at 8 p.m. on 4 June 2009, as he was passing by the beach of Pulau Rakata, which is the southernmost of the three small Indonesian islands forming the rim of the caldera of Krakatau volcano. The young active volcano of Anak Krakatau lies at the centre of the caldera. The lights visible in the picture on the sea, in the front centre area of Anak Krakatau, are from the boats of the local fishermen. The beach was formed by the deposits of the catastrophic 1883 eruption, and by the subsequent landslides, and was soon colonized by a tropical jungle. The sea is eroding the new land at a rate of several metres per year, causing old trees on the shoreline to fall. During the night, stars rotate around the volcano, so that above Anak Krakatau, the Big Dipper points approximately towards the erupting vent. Special thanks to Alexandra Knaust for all her support and encouragement to write this book, for selecting the cover photograph, and her cover design and photograph of the Fiji fan palm from Tonga; to Lindsay Murray for technical assistance; and to RMS, for providing an ideal working environment for a catastrophist. xi