Global Tsunami Risk Modelling & Rapid Earthquake Impact Assessment
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1 Global Tsunami Risk Modelling & Rapid Earthquake Impact Assessment Andreas M. Schäfer, James E. Daniell, Friedemann Wenzel CENTER FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND RISK REDUCTION TECHNOLOGY KIT National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
2 Global Tsunami Risk Model Global Megathrust Earthquake Hazard Model Probable M max 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6, Return Period Explorer Gorda Mexico Central America Lesser Antilles Hispaniola Panama Peru Chile Fireland Sandwich Hellenic Arc Makran Sumatra Timor Sulawesi Sangihe Philippine Sth Ryukyu Honshu Kuriles Aleutian West Alaska Kermadec Puysegur Bougainville Nth New Hebrides Mariana Palau Negros Cotobato Manus New Guinea West Mussau Jamaica Trough Algeria Goringe Hjort Wetar Cascadia Rivera Nicaragua Cocos Puerto Rico Venezuela Colombia North Chile Patagonia Shetland Ionian Sea Cyprus Arc Andaman Java Seram Halmahera Philippine Nth Manila Nankai Hokkaido Kamchatka Aleutian East Tonga Hikurangi New Britain Solomon Islands Vanuatu Yap Izu-Bonin Sulu North Sulu South East Bismarck New Guinea East Muertos Trough Adria Horseshoe East Luzon Panama South Flores Likelihood Source Propagation Loss 2
3 Global Tsunami Risk Model Global Megathrust Earthquake Hazard Model Event Variability Likelihood Source Propagation Loss 3
4 Global Tsunami Risk Model Global Megathrust Earthquake Hazard Model Event Variability Shallow Water Wave Equation Solver (GPU): TsuPy Likelihood Source Propagation Loss 4
5 Global Tsunami Risk Model Global Megathrust Earthquake Hazard Model Event Variability Shallow Water Wave Equation Solver (GPU): TsuPy Work in Progress: Global Inundation & Propagation Modelling for years Global Coastal Exposure Assessment Socio-Economic Risk Assessment Likelihood Source Propagation Loss 5
6 Global Tsunami Risk Model Global Megathrust Earthquake Hazard Model Event Variability Shallow Water Wave Equation Solver (GPU): TsuPy Work in Progress (by end of 2017): Global Inundation & Propagation Modelling for years Global Coastal Exposure Assessment Socio-Economic Risk Assessment Outlook: Storm Surge & Flash Flood Modelling Landslide Multi-hazard integration 6
7 Global Tsunami Risk Model - Status Global Megathrust Earthquake Hazard Model Event Variability Shallow Water Wave Equation Solver (GPU): TsuPy Work in Progress (by end of 2017): Global Inundation & Propagation Modelling for years Global Coastal Exposure Assessment Socio-Economic Risk Assessment Outlook: Storm Surge & Flash Flood Modelling Landslide / Mass Movement Multi-hazard integration CEDIM Integration (FDA): Rapid Tsunami Modelling 7
8 Rapid Earthquake Impact Earthquakes: Hand-calibrated shake maps for intensity and ground motion Based on a global database of intensity and ground motion prediction equations 8
9 Rapid Earthquake Impact Status: Active online activity people Reached engagements 35 shake maps since March Work in Progress (by 2017): Hiwi working on background functions Automatisation of processes 9
10 Rapid Earthquake Impact Status: Active online activity people Reached engagements 35 shake maps since March Work in Progress (by 2017): Hiwi working on background functions Automatisation of processes Outlook: Better quality in shorter time (than USGS) Extendend exposure correlation Hotels Critical Infrastructure Aftershock Modelling 10
11 Rapid Earthquake Impact Status: Active online activity people Reached engagements 35 shake maps since March Work in Progress (by 2017): Hiwi working on background functions Automatisation of processes Outlook: Better quality in shorter time (than USGS) Extended exposure correlation Hotels Critical Infrastructure Aftershock Modelling CEDIM Integration (FDA): Earthquake Modelling on steroids 11
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