Earthquake and Tsunami Modeling in Japan. Renee Lee Product Manager, RMS

Transcription

1 Earthquake and Tsunami Modeling in Japan Renee Lee Product Manager, RMS

2 RMS JAPAN EARTHQUAKE MODEL HISTORY

3 2011 GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE M9.0

4 SCOPE OF JAPAN EARTHQUAKE MODEL UPDATE (2012) Event Rate Reassessment Updates to stochastic event rates Inclusion of long-term event rates Seismic Source Considerations New subduction interface sources Additional large megathrust events on the Nankai Trough Tsunami Accumulation Footprints Inundation from the 2011 Great East Japan (Tohoku) Earthquake Inundation from scenarios on the Nankai Trough Ground Motion Footprint Ground motion footprint for the 2011 Great East Japan (Tohoku) Earthquake ALM Profile Update ALM profiles recompiled to reflect new stochastic event rates ILC Update Industry Loss Curves (ILCs) to reflect updated stochastic event rates 2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential

5 UPDATES TO THE JAPANESE NATIONAL SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS ERC 2012 map: Probability for seismic intensity 6 Lower or More within 30 years (average case)

6 COMBINING RESEARCH WITH NEW SCIENCE AND DATA Hazard Maps and Lessons Learned Methodological Improvements RMS RESEARCH NEW DATA AND SCIENCE Geocoding/ Hazard Vulnerability Financial Exposure

7 SECONDARY HAZARDS

8

9 ENHANCING LANDSLIDE MODELING Friction Cohesion Slope Rainfall Vegetation Landslides

10 Source:

11 ENHANCING LIQUEFACTION MODELING Source: NBC News

12 SUBPERIL TSUNAMI

13 TSUNAMI Ref:

14 TSUNAMI MODELING OVERVIEW Event Generation Wave Propagation Coastal Inundation

15 EVENT GENERATION Generalized representation of a M9 Japan Trench Image: C. Williams (2013) Image: S. Astill et al (2013)

16 WAVE PROPAGATION Initial condition is the surface deformation Maximum wave height (meters) over mean sea level (MSL Image: R. Farahani et al (2013)

17 COASTAL INUNDATION High resolution DTMs Friction coefficients based on global land cover characteristics Images: Shuangcai Li, Fahad Mohammed, and Rozita Farahani (2014)

18 VALIDATION 2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential

19 TSUNAMI IMPACTS OF A M9 ON NANKAI TROUGH

20 NANKAI TROUGH M9.0 - SCENARIO Surface Deformation Source Characterization Image: C. Williams (2013) Image: S. Astill et al (2013)

21 NANKAI TROUGH M9.0 - SCENARIO Basin-wide Wave Propagation

22 NANKAI TROUGH M9.0 - SCENARIO Coastal Inundation Tanabe, Japan Nagoya, Japan

23 NANKAI TROUGH M9.0 - SCENARIO Konan, Kochi Prefecture Inundation Depth m m m m m > 9.0m

24 VULNERABILITY

25 VULNERABILITY for Liquefaction and Landslide New Vulnerability Functions for Tsunami

26 DEVELOPING ROBUST VULNERABILITY CURVES Data Vulnerability Function Expert Opinion Simulation Based on Science & Engineering

27 damage ratio DEVELOPING ROBUST VULNERABILITY CURVES MDR mean vulnerability function MDR EDP Engineering Demand Parameter aa FFFF Updating Contents Functions IFM Updating BI Functions Add Builders Risk to HD EQ Add new classifications, e.g. Cargo SS dd TT 1 = ss dd hazard intensity measure uu gg IM EDP Intensity Measure

28 NEXT GENERATION OF JAPAN EARTHQUAKE MODEL Data Driven Approaches & Enhanced Modeling Capabilities