2014 SCEC Annual Meeting!

Transcription

1 2014 SCEC Annual Meeting! Palm Springs, California! 7-10 September 2014!

2 Welcome Back to Palm Springs!

3 AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD am/SCEC2014Program.pdf

4 Goals of the Annual Meeting! Discuss SCEC collaborative research Learn about new advances in earthquake science Share research results and collaboration plans Assess progress on key SCEC4 objectives Six fundamental problems of earthquake science Special Fault Study Areas Community Geodetic Model & Community Stress Model Communication, Education & Outreach Gear up for the SCEC5 proposal To be submitted to NSF & USGS by Oct 1, 2015 Have some fun in the sun or rain!

5 SCEC Member Institutions (Sept 1, 2014)! 17 For those of you attending this meeting who don t see your institution on this list, please note that it s easy to apply. We just need a letter from a cognizant official (e.g., your department chair or dean) that requests this status and appoints an institutional representative who will act as the point-of-contact with SCEC

6 Core Institutions " & " Board of Directors! Judi Chester (TAMU)" Roland Burgmann (UCB)"

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8 " External Advisory Council!

9 SCEC4 Science Plan" " Six Fundamental Problems in Earthquake Science! 1. Stress transfer from plate motion to crustal faults: long-term fault slip rates 2. Stress-mediated fault interactions and earthquake clustering: evaluation of mechanisms 3. Evolution of fault resistance during seismic slip: scale-appropriate laws for rupture modeling 4. Structure and evolution of fault zones and systems: relation to earthquake physics 5. Causes and effects of transient deformations: slow slip events and tectonic tremor 6. Seismic wave generation and scattering: prediction of strong ground motions

10 Science Working Groups & Planning Committee! Deputy Director Greg Beroza

11 SCEC Staff!

12 SCEC Leadership Evolution! Search for a new SCEC director has not delivered a candidate in time to lead the SCEC5 proposal process USC has agreed that an international search for a new director will resume after a brief strategic pause I have recommended modifications to the SCEC leadership structure with two goals: Strengthen the SCEC5 proposal process Facilitate the leadership transition process Structural modifications have been accepted by the SCEC Board of Directors SCEC by-laws has been changed to recognize these modifications The BoD is contemplating further changes

13 SCEC Leadership Evolution! Greg Beroza is appointed as the SCEC Co-Director effective at this meeting Responsibilities of the Co-Director Chair of the Planning Committee Principal Investigator on some SCEC special projects Co-Principal Investigator on the SCEC5 proposal In addition, the Co-Director will work with the Director on long-range planning and proposal formulation enforcing the SCEC dress code

14 SCEC Leadership Evolution! New leadership position, Vice-Chair of the Planning Committee (PC-VC) The PC-VC will work with the Co- Director to facilitate the drafting of the annual science plan and the SCEC5 proposal review submitted proposals and formulate the annual collaboration plan plan the annual meeting prepare the annual report to the funding agencies Judi Chester has been appointed as the first PC-VC!

15 SCEC Leadership Evolution! New SCEC position: Executive Science Director for Special Projects (ESD-SP) Ph.D. with 5 or more years of research experience. The ESD-SP will work with the Director and Co-Director to formulate and manage the science plans of SCEC special projects coordinate special projects with the core program develop new special projects Now taking nominations and applications!

16 SCEC Base Program! $3.3M $3.0M $1.3M

17 All SCEC Programs! Total SCEC funding

18 SCEC Special Projects! Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) Community Modeling Environment (CME) BroadBand platform CyberShake platform F3DT platform High-F platform

19 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2013)" " Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)! Time-independent forecast (UCERF3-TI) incorporated into NSHMP Long-term forecast (UCERF3-TD has been finalized and submitted to BSSA Short-term component (UCERF3-ETAS) is still under development UCERF3 Model >200,000 different rupture types (Field et al. 2013)

20 Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability! Infrastructure for automated, blind, prospective testing of forecasting models in a variety of tectonic environments and on a global scale Western Pacific 16 models SCEC Testing Center Los Angeles California 86 models Oceanic Transform Faults 1 model Global 13 models EU Testing Center Zurich Italy 48 models China Testing Center North-South Seismic Belt Beijing ERI Testing Center Tokyo Japan 217 models GNS Science Testing Center Wellington Testing Center Upcoming Testing Region Upcoming CSEP Testing Regions & Testing Centers 434 models under test in September, 2014 New Zealand 53 models

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22 SCEC Computational Pathways! Other Data Geology Geodesy Structural Representation F3DT 4! DFR 3! AWP KFR AWP NSR Ground Motions 2! FM DM ERM PM Empirical GMPE Intensity Measures 1! Earthquake Rupture Forecast TACC Stampede NCSA Blue Waters OLCF Titan ALCF Mira UCERF3 SA-3s, 2% PoE in 50 years depth = 6 km Los Angeles 1! Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) 2! CyberShake 14.2 seismic hazard model for LA region 3! Dynamic rupture model of fractal roughness on SAF 4! Full-3D tomographic model CVM-S4.26 of S. California

23 CVM-S4.26" Full-3D tomography model of crustal structure! CVM-S4 starting model 26 th iterate of a full-3d tomographic (F3DT) inversion procedure using ~ 550,000 differential waveform measurements at f 0.2 Hz 38,000 earthquake seismograms 12,000 ambient-noise Green functions

24 Comparison of 1D and 3D CyberShake Models for the Los Angeles Region! BBP-1D CVM-S lower near-fault intensities due to 3D scattering 2. much higher intensities in near-fault basins 3. higher intensities in the Los Angeles basins 4. lower intensities in hard-rock areas

25 03/28/14 La Habra Earthquake (M5.1)! Station SDD Observed in black Synthetic in red CS11: CVM S4 CVM-S4 SDD CS14.2: CVM S4.26 CVM-S4.26 SDD CS13.4: CVM H11.9 CVM-H11.9 SDD Z Z Z R R R T T T time(sec) time(sec) time(sec)

26 03/28/14 La Habra Earthquake (M5.1)! Station EDW2 Observed in black Synthetic in red CS11: CVM S4 CVM-S4 EDW2 CS14.2: CVM S4.26 CVM-S4.26 EDW2 CS13.4: CVM H11.9 CVM-H11.9 EDW2 Z Z Z R R R T T T time(sec) time(sec) time(sec)

27 03/28/14 La Habra Earthquake (M5.1)!

28 High-F Project! low-order free oscillations 1000 s mantle waves 100 s Seismic band crustal waves strongly scattered waves basin waves 10 s 1 s 0.1 s period.001 Hz.01 Hz.1 Hz 1 Hz 10 Hz frequency Earthquake engineering band tall buildings houses stiff structures SCEC simulations physics-based deterministic 2014 CyberShake empirical 0.5 Hz SCEC simulations 2018 physics-based deterministic High-F modeling must validate new physics stochastic fault roughness near-fault plasticity frequency-dependent attenuation topography small-scale near-surface heterogeneity near-surface nonlinearity physics-based stochastic 5 Hz empirical stochastic

29 High-F Project! low-order free oscillations 1000 s mantle waves 100 s Seismic band crustal waves strongly scattered waves basin waves 10 s 1 s 0.1 s period.001 Hz.01 Hz.1 Hz 1 Hz 10 Hz frequency Earthquake engineering band tall buildings houses stiff structures SCEC simulations physics-based deterministic 2014 CyberShake empirical 0.5 Hz SCEC simulations 2018 physics-based deterministic High-F modeling must validate new physics stochastic fault roughness near-fault plasticity frequency-dependent attenuation topography small-scale near-surface heterogeneity near-surface nonlinearity physics-based stochastic 5 Hz empirical stochastic

30 High-F Project! Seismic band km 10 x x x 1 low-order free oscillations 1000 s 100 s 10 s 1 s 0.1 s period.001 Hz mantle waves.01 Hz SORD dynamic rupture model nucleation center at (x1, x2) = (0 km, 12 km) rough fault surface crustal planar free surface waves ( x 2 = 0 ) strongly scattered waves basin waves km.1 Hz 1 Hz UCVM stochastic heterogeneity 10 Hz frequency tall buildings houses stiff structures Earthquake engineering band SCEC simulations physics-based deterministic 2014 CyberShake empirical 0.5 Hz SCEC simulations 2018 physics-based deterministic High-F modeling must validate new physics stochastic fault roughness near-fault plasticity frequency-dependent attenuation topography small-scale near-surface heterogeneity near-surface nonlinearity physics-based stochastic 5 Hz empirical stochastic

31 High-F Project! low-order free oscillations 1000 s mantle waves 100 s Seismic band crustal waves strongly scattered waves basin waves 10 s 1 s 0.1 s period.001 Hz.01 Hz.1 Hz 1 Hz 10 Hz frequency Earthquake engineering band tall buildings houses stiff structures SCEC simulations physics-based deterministic 2014 CyberShake empirical 0.5 Hz SCEC simulations 2018 physics-based deterministic High-F modeling must validate new physics stochastic fault roughness near-fault plasticity frequency-dependent attenuation topography small-scale near-surface heterogeneity near-surface nonlinearity physics-based stochastic 5 Hz empirical stochastic

32 SCEC/CME s use of HPC resources is growing rapidly! 200" Millions"of"Alloca6on"Core:hours" 180" 160" 140" 120" 100" 80" 60" 40" 20" 0" Service'Units'on'NSF'TeraGrid/XSEDE'Resources' CPU'Hours'on'NSF'Blue'Waters' Service'Units'on'NSF'Yellowstone' Service'Units'on'DOE'INCITE'Resources' Service'Units'on'USC'Resources' 2002" 2003" 2004" 2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014" CME"Alloca6on"Year"

33 SCEC needs extreme-scale computing! 10,000,000$TF/s$ 1,000,000$TF/s$ 100,000$TF/s$ 10,000$TF/s$ 1,000$TF/s$ RF$ 100$TF/s$ M8$ 10$TF/s$ 1$TF/s$ SO'K$ SO'D$!!!!!Sustained!SCEC!measured(performance(for( a(single(milestone(capability(simula4on( TS2$ $0.10$TF/s$ $0.01$TF/s$ TS1$ 2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$ 2013$ 2014$ 2015$ 2016$ 2017$ 2018$ Year

34 SCEC Initiatives! Extreme-Scale Computing To be supported by NSF and DOE California Crustal Structure To be supported by California utilities Earthquake Forecasting To be supported by W. M. Keck Foundation

35 SCEC Initiative in Extreme-Scale Computing! Goal: Collaborate with NSF and DOE leadership-class facilities to push the limits of extreme-scale computing by developing software for earthquake system science Develop codes that can achieve robustness, scalability, and computational efficiency on next-generation supercomputers Engage software and hardware developers in earthquake system science as a means for vertical integration of HPC cyberinfrastructure Software development plan focused on three computational pathways: large suites (> 10 6 ) of extended-source kinematic simulations to populate physics-based hazard models (CyberShake platform) moderate-sized suites (~ 10 4 ) of dynamic earthquake simulations to study the effects of material heterogeneities and nonlinearities on wave excitation and propagation (High-F platform) large suites (> 10 6 ) of compact-source kinematic simulations for full-3d tomographic inversions (F3DT platform)

36 Central California Seismic Project! Goal: to improve PSHA by reducing the epistemic uncertainties in the modeling of 3D path effects Achieving this goal will require the gathering of new seismic data Initial study phase will be focused in central California Centered on the Diablo Canyon NPP Initiated in January, 2015 Later phases could potentially extend structural studies statewide Long-term (10-yr) sponsorship by California utilities

37 Central California Seismic Project! SCEC USR J. Shaw & A. Plesch Limit of current full-3d tomography in CVM-H

38 AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD am/SCEC2014Program.pdf

39 Agenda!

40 Agenda!

41 Agenda!

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43 Agenda!

44 End!