The Global Drought Monitor Portal: The Foundation for a Global Drought Information System

Transcription

1 Paper No. 15 Page 1 Copyright Ó 2012, Paper ; 8424 wors, 18 Figures, 0 Animations, 3 Tables. The Global Drought Monitor Portal: The Founation for a Global Drought Information System Richar R. Heim Jr.* an Michael J. Brewer Climate Monitoring Branch, Climate Services an Monitoring Division, NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina Receive 2 February 2012; accepte 18 August 2012 ABSTRACT: The international scientific community has long recognize the nee for coorinate rought monitoring an response, but many factors have prevente progress in the evelopment of a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS): some of which involve aministrative issues (coorinate international action an policy) while others involve scientific, technological, an logistical issues. The creation of the National Integrate Drought Information System (NIDIS) Portal within the Unite States provie an opportunity to take the first steps towar builing the informational founation for a GDEWS: that is, a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). At a series of workshops sponsore by the Worl Meteorological Organization (WMO) an Group on Earth Observations (GEO) hel in Asheville, North Carolina, in April 2010, it was recommene that a moular approach be taken in the creation of a GDIS an that the NIDIS Portal serve as the founation for the GDIS structure. Once a NIDIS-base Global Drought Monitor (GDM) Portal (GDMP) establishe an international rought clearinghouse, the various components of a GDIS (rought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, history, research, an eucation) an later a GDEWS (rought relief, recovery, an planning) coul be constructe atop it. The NIDIS Portal is a web-base information system * Corresponing author aress: Richar R. Heim Jr., Climate Monitoring Branch, Climate Services an Monitoring Division, NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC aress: richar.heim@noaa.gov DOI: /2012EI

2 Paper No. 15 Page 2 create to aress rought services an early warning in the Unite States, incluing rought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, an eucation. This portal utilizes Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) web mapping services (WMS) to incorporate continental rought monitors into the GDMP. As of early 2012, the GDM has incorporate continental rought information for North America (North American Drought Monitor), Europe (European Drought Observatory), an Africa (African Drought Monitor evelope by Princeton University); interest has been expresse by groups representing Australia an South America; an coorination with appropriate parties in Asia is also expecte. Because of the range of climates across the worl an the iverse nature of rought an the sectors it impacts, the construction an functioning of each continental rought monitor nees to be appropriate for the continent in question. The GDMP inclues a suite of global rought inicators ientifie by experts an aopte by the WMO as the necessary measures to examine rought from a meteorological stanpoint; these global rought inicators provie a base to assist the global integration an interpretation of the continental rought monitors. The GDMP has been inclue in recent upates to the GEO Work Plan an has benefite from substantial coorination with WMO on both their Global Framework for Climate Services an the National Drought Policy efforts. The GDMP is recognize as having the potential to be a major contributor to both of these activities. KEYWORDS: Global; Drought; Monitoring 1. Introuction Drought has ha a significant impact on civilization throughout history, but it is one of the most ifficult phenomena to measure an even to efine. Numerous rought inices an inicators have been evelope in the last two centuries, base on the sector an location affecte, the particular application, an the availability of ata, among other factors. Drought can take multiple forms, incluing meteorological rought (lack of precipitation), agricultural (or soil moisture) rought, an hyrological rought (runoff or streamflow) (Heim 2002; Zwiers et al. 2011). The complexity of rought often results in a efinition that is couche in general terms, such as a marke eficiency of precipitation that results in a water shortage or hyrological imbalance that affects some activity or group (WMO 1992; AMS 1997). It is best represente by inicators that quantitatively appraise the total environmental moisture status or imbalance between water supply an water eman (Heim 2002). Civilization has struggle to evelop early warning an other response systems to aress the rought problem, but the iversity of climates, range of sectors impacte, an inconsistency in available resources an ata make even rought assessment on a continental scale, let alone on a global scale ifficult (Sivakumar 2009). This paper iscusses the evelopment of the Global Drought Monitor an Global Drought Monitor Portal, a coorinate effort to tackle the rought monitoring problem on a continental an global scale (see Table 1 for the istinction between the Global Drought Monitor, Global Drought Monitor Portal, Global Drought Information System, an Global Drought Early Warning System). Every continent has regions an climates that are susceptible to rought, incluing semiari areas that are especially vulnerable to rought. In North America an Europe toay, rought impacts are largely economic (Markanya 2010).

3 Table 1. Acronyms use in this paper. Acronym GDM GDMP GDIS GDEWS Earth Interactions Paper No. 15 Page 3 Description Global Drought Monitor: a prouct epicting rought occurring on a global basis, constructe from rought epictions prepare by the nations of each continent. Global Drought Monitor Portal: a web portal, utilizing Open Geospatial Consortium web mapping services, which provies the IT infrastructure housing the GDM an is constructe in such a way that it coul be the IT home for a Global Drought Information System. Global Drought Information System: an IT-base system (house within the GDMP) into which global rought information from originating countries is sent an mae available in a coorinate an consistent manner. The GDIS aresses mainly scientific aspects of rought an inclues informational components covering rought monitoring (the GDM), rought forecasting, rought impacts, history of rought episoes by continent, rought research, an rought eucation. Global Drought Early Warning System: an IT an aministrative system for coorinate international action an policy concerning rought issues on a global scale. The GDEWS inclues an informational component (the GDIS), action components (for rought relief, recovery, an planning), an a policy component. However, in most of the rest of the worl, rought-inuce crop failure an famine can create severe harship. In 1992, an International Conference on Climate, Sustainability an Development in Semiari Regions (ICID-I) focuse the worl s attention on the plight of rylans peoples an was influential in the negotiation of the Unite Nations (UN) Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). With 193 country parties to the convention, the UNCCD is a global mechanism to combat esertification an mitigate the effects of rought through national action programs that incorporate long-term strategies supporte by international cooperation an partnership arrangements. Since ICID-I, increasing attention has been pai to how a changing climate may affect the frequency an intensity of rought. In a globally warme worl, the warming can intensify hyrological roughts an alter runoff timing from snowmelt, affecting water management ecisions (Barnett et al. 2008; Cayan et al. 2010), an rought-affecte areas will likely increase in extent an the vulnerability of semiari regions to rought will also likely increase (Ager et al. 2007). As note by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Ager et al. 2007), some countries have mae efforts to aapt to the recent an projecte changing climate conitions, particularly through conservation of key ecosystems, early warning systems, risk management in agriculture, strategies for floo rought an coastal management, an isease surveillance systems. Local, national, an regional collaborative rought monitoring efforts have been summarize at several venues, incluing gatherings sponsore by the Worl Meteorological Organization (WMO) of experts in Lisbon, Portugal, in 2000 (Wilhite et al. 2000); Lincoln, Nebraska, in 2009 (Hayes et al. 2011); an Washington, D.C., in 2011 (Sivakumar et al. 2011b) an at the Secon International Conference on Climate, Sustainability an Development in Semiari Regions (ICID118) hel in Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2010 (see online at org/?locale=en&m=scheuling&a=view&rigth=no). However, the effectiveness of these collaborative rought monitoring efforts is outweighe by lack of basic information, observation, an monitoring systems; lack of capacity builing an appropriate political, institutional, an technological frameworks; low income; an settlements in vulnerable areas, among others (Ager et al. 2007). These shortcomings

4 Paper No. 15 Page 4 have inhibite the evelopment of an integrate Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS) (Wilhite 2005). In aition, for many ecaes attempts to manage rought an its impacts have been mae through a reactive crisis management approach. This approach has proven to be ineffective, poorly coorinate, an untimely (Wilhite et al. 2005). In the Unite States, the National Integrate Drought Information System (NIDIS) was establishe by the NIDIS Act in 2006 as a proactive mechanism for the following: eveloping the leaership an networks to implement an integrate rought monitoring an forecasting system at feeral, state, an local levels; fostering an supporting a research environment focusing on risk assessment, forecasting, an management; creating an early warning system for rought to provie accurate, timely, an integrate information; eveloping interactive systems, such as the web portal, as part of the early warning system; an proviing a framework for public awareness an eucation about roughts (NPIT 2007). It has been only in recent years that steps have been taken to construct a functional framework that coul integrate the existing regional rought monitoring efforts an buil the components of a GDEWS. The Global Drought Monitor Portal escribe in this paper serves as an informational founation upon which a GDEWS can be built. 2. Laying the grounwork for a Global Drought Early Warning System Several organizational meetings have been hel in the last few years to frame the issue an ientify the steps to make a GDEWS a reality. Much of this work has been one by or with the support or sponsorship of the WMO an the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Expressing the nee for a GDEWS At the Fourth GEO Plenary Session an Ministerial Summit hel in Cape Town, South Africa, in November 2007, representatives from more than 70 nations reaffirme their commitment to working together, at both the political an technical levels, to improve the interoperability of observation, preiction, an information systems as part of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). Recognizing the growing problem of rought an its impact on longterm sustainability of the earth s water resources, the event conclue with a U.S. proposal that technical representatives from participating countries buil upon existing programs to work towar establishing a GDEWS within the coming ecae to provie a system of systems for ata an information sharing, communication, an capacity builing to take on the growing worlwie threat of rought an regular rought warning assessments issue as frequently as possible with increase frequency uring a crisis.

5 Paper No. 15 Page Stanar global rought inicators Several workshops were hel by the WMO to etermine if agreement coul be reache on rought inices that coul be applie globally to monitor meteorological, agricultural, an hyrological roughts. The stanarize precipitation inex (SPI) was recommene by the WMO Congress to characterize meteorological roughts base on the Lincoln Declaration on Drought Inices resulting from the WMO Interregional Workshop on Inices an Early Warning Systems for Drought hel in Lincoln, Nebraska, in December 2009 (Hayes et al. 2011). The workshop participants note that the SPI shoul be use by all national meteorological an hyrological services as the stanar inex available worlwie in aition to unique local inices an inicators being use nationally within each country. The WMO/UN Strategy for International Disaster Reuction (UNISDR) Expert Meeting on Agricultural Drought Inices, hel in June 2010 in Murcia, Spain, to ientify stanar inices to monitor agricultural rought, i not reach consensus on a single rought inex to recommen for agricultural rought. However, key conclusions an recommenations inclue the following: (i) countries aroun the worl shoul move beyon the use of just rainfall ata in the computation of inices for the escription of agricultural roughts an their impacts; (ii) a composite inex, such as the U.S. Drought Monitor (Svoboa et al. 2002), shoul be consiere; (iii) there is a strong nee for establishment of soil moisture monitoring networks where they o not currently exist; an (iv) a survey shoul be conucte to compile an assess the resources (ata networks, eliverables, an inices use/calculate an isseminate), capacities, user nees, an future nees of national meteorological an hyrological services in builing common frameworks for national agricultural rought early warning systems (Sivakumar et al. 2011a). The WMO/UNISDR Expert Meeting on Hyrological Drought Inices was hel in September 2011 in Geneva, Switzerlan. As with the agricultural rought inices workshop, this meeting i not result in a consensus recommenation on an inex to be use for worlwie monitoring of hyrological rought. This is ue to the complex nature of hyrological rought, the time lag between the occurrence of meteorological rought an the occurrence of hyrological impacts, the epenence of hyrological rought on basin-specific characteristics, an how hyrological rought an associate inices are influence by watershe management practices an changes in lan use. However, several hyrological rought inices that coul be consiere inclue reservoir level, low streamflow inex, a composite hyro inex, an precipitation-base inices such as the SPI or percent of normal precipitation (Stefanski 2011). Efforts to reach a consensus continue The April 2010 Global Drought Assessment Workshop: Creating the founation for a component-base GDEWS In April 2010, a Global Drought Assessment Workshop was hel in Asheville, North Carolina, to move the coorinate global rought monitoring efforts of the WMO an GEO forwar. [This workshop was part of a series of rought workshops hel in Asheville uring the week of April The other workshops inclue the biennial North American Drought Monitor (NADM) Forum an the

6 Paper No. 15 Page 6 U.S. Canaian GEO Bilateral Technical Workshop (Heim an Brewer 2010; Brewer an Heim 2011a).] It was quickly recognize at the Asheville global workshop that no single nation or organization can affor to tackle all of the hurles involve in creating a GDEWS in its entirety. However, it was believe that small pieces of a GDEWS coul be assemble in an incremental way. If an international rought clearinghouse an web services infrastructure coul be establishe that is, if a global web portal founation coul be lai then it might be easier to construct the GDEWS builing atop it. The NIDIS rought portal managers note that the NIDIS portal was evelope to support rought monitoring, forecasting, research, an impacts assessment in the Unite States, an new web mapping services ha been evelope to istribute the information that Canaa, Mexico, an the Unite States integrate to ai in the prouction of the NADM. These new NADM web services were being house in the U.S. Drought Portal in a North American specific site. These new tools woul allow aitional accuracy in the evelopment of the NADM by allowing the overlay of information as well as increase the utility of the ata by proviing it in more accessible an useful formats. With minimal aitional effort, a prototype Global Drought Monitor Portal (GDMP) coul be evelope as an outgrowth of the NIDIS portal moifications. The workshop recommene an the portal managers agree to evelop a prototype GDMP within the NIDIS portal environment to serve as a clearinghouse for international rought information. Once the igital infrastructure was create, the GDMP coul be populate with rought information from aroun the worl an serve as the founation for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) (Heim an Brewer 2010; Brewer an Heim 2011a). Aitional policy an actionable components (rought response an mitigation) coul be ae later to the GDIS in orer to make a complete GDEWS. Builing upon the recommenations of the earlier Interregional Workshop on Inices an Early Warning Systems for Drought, the Global Drought Assessment Workshop recommene that the GDMP provie a number of ifferent epictions of rought on the global scale, evelope using ata from WMO Worl Data Centers an incluing such rought inices as the SPI at various time scales as well as satellite-base inices proviing global coverage. The workshop also suggeste that, in aition to the SPI, rought impacts information shoul be inclue globally, if available, an that categories of inices be ientifie instea of specific inices (e.g., some evapotranspiration-base inex, some soil moisture inex, an moele inices as well as satellite-base vegetation inices). The remotely sense ata shoul be use in conjunction with in situ ata, especially in parts of the worl where in situ ata are ifficult to obtain. The GDMP woul house a Global Drought Monitor (GDM) whose global rought epiction woul be constructe from continental rought epictions prepare an contribute by the nations of each continent. The experimental GDMP was emonstrate at the Seventh GEO Plenary Session an Ministerial Summit hel in Beijing, China, in November The global rought forecasting component A Worl Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Workshop on Drought Preictability an Preiction in a Changing Climate, hel in Barcelona, Spain, in March

7 Paper No. 15 Page 7 Figure 1. Conceptual esign for the GDM component of the GDIS. Continental an regional rought monitors, create by partners on the respective continents, are integrate into the GDM for a truly global picture of rought monitoring. 2011, sought to avance regional rought preiction capabilities for variables an scales most relevant to user nees on subseasonal to centennial time scales. The action plan evelope by the workshop ha applications to a GDIS, with the key recommenations incluing the following: (i) evelop a rought catalogue that summarizes our current unerstaning of the causes of rought worlwie, to inclue the important time scales (e.g., subseasonal, seasonal, ecaal, centennial) an mechanisms [e.g., ENSO, Pacific ecaal oscillation (PDO), lan feebacks, global warming] for each region; (ii) efine case stuies an carry out a coorinate analysis of the mechanisms, preictability, an preiction skill, which coul evolve into a regular annual assessment of worlwie rought; an (iii) actively contribute to the evelopment an improvement of rought early warning systems (DEWS) by taking avantage of current capabilities in rought preiction an monitoring (WCRP 2011). A follow-up workshop on further eveloping global rought forecasting capabilities within the context of a GDIS was hel in April 2012 in Frascati, Italy. In aition to the recommenation that the GDMP serve as the backbone for a GDIS, this GDIS Workshop aresse etails for eveloping the rought forecasting an rought catalog components, which will be incorporate into the GDIS.

8 Paper No. 15 Page 8 Figure 2. North America (North American Drought Monitor), Europe (Europe Drought Observatory), an Africa (Africa Drought Monitor) are represente on the GDM as of early The rought policy component Two workshops were hel by the WMO in 2011 to aress the evelopment of the policy neee for a GDEWS: the first, Towar a Compenium on National Drought Policy, was hel in July in Washington, D.C., an the secon, the International Symposium on Integrate Drought Information Systems, was hel in November in Casablanca, Morocco. Recognizing that each country is unique in its vulnerability an institutional capacity to prepare for an respon to rought an that the national rought policy for any given country will epen very much on the local circumstances an priorities, the July workshop propose several elements on national rought policy in a compenium form so that countries coul aopt those elements that will be appropriate to their local circumstances an national priorities. The 32 elements were groupe uner three main categories: (i) rought monitoring an early warning systems, (ii) vulnerability assessment an impacts, an (iii) emergency relief an response (Sivakumar et al. 2011b). The November meeting focuse on further eveloping these pieces at the national level so they coul contribute to a successful GDIS. 3. The Global Drought Monitor It has long been recognize that a global-scale rought monitoring, mitigation, an response system woul provie important benefits to all nations affecte by rought, especially to those peoples in semiari regions. National rought early warning systems have been create in many areas, incluing the Unite States (U.S. Drought Monitor an NIDIS), Australia, Brazil, Canaa, China, Hungary,

9 Paper No. 15 Page 9 Table 2. Characteristics for the creation of continental Drought Monitors for North America (NADM moel), Europe (EDO moel), an Africa (ADM moel). Drought experts In-house expertise for monitoring, forecasting, impacts, research, planning, an eucation National climate observing network NADM moel EDO moel ADM moel Extensive ata networks an near-real-time aily observations from all three countries; supplemente by continental satellite observations an moel ata National rought assessments National Drought Monitors in each country alreay routinely prouce timely (monthly or more frequently) an merge into continental rought monitor International ata exchange Station ata exchange for creation of regional or continental stanarize inicators International collaboration National experts collaborate to create regional or continental rought monitor In-house expertise for continental monitoring, forecasting, impacts, research, planning, an eucation; combine with regional, national, an local expertise Extensive ata networks proviing nearreal-time aily observations (.30 countries); supplemente by satellite observations an moele ata Continental assessment one at JRC, complemente by regional, national an local (e.g., river basin) assessments, where available; the latter are accessible through EDO Station ata from GTS an other sources an forecasting ata from ECMWF; common rought inices for multiscale assessment an mutual exchange of knowlege; local inicators accessible through EDO Continental monitoring coorinate by EDO (EC Joint Research Centre); national expert network to support evelopment IT infrastructure ArcGIS, web, an Web, interoperable OGC-compliant map servers, ArcGIS, an Oracle atabase External expertise for monitoring an forecasting, couple with in-house expertise for impacts, research, planning, an eucation Extensive ata networks an near-real-time aily observations for some nations (more satellite observations than in situ observations for most regions) No currently existing National Drought Monitor assessments (National Drought Monitor assessments o not go into the continental assessment) Station ata from GTS an CLIMAT transmissions are use for real-time ata; historical ata are from GHCN an similar compilations Nations on the continent request experts from outsie to create regional or continental rought monitor that are run in house Web, GIS, Google Maps, an

10 Paper No. 15 Page 10 Figure 3. The USDM for 3 Jan Inia, Mexico, Nigeria, the Philippines, Romania, an South Africa. Regional rought monitoring centers or activities have been establishe in North America (North American Drought Monitor); Europe (European Drought Observatory through the European Commission Joint Research Center); southeastern Europe; eastern, western, an southern Africa; North Africa; west an central Asia; Southeast Asia (Southeast Asia Drought Monitor evelope by the International Water Management Institute); an the Caribbean, an international groups [e.g., the UN Foo an Agriculture Organization (FAO) Global Information an Early Warning System on Foo an Agriculture (GIEWS), the Worl Foo Programme (WFP) Humanitarian Early Warning Service (HEWS), the UNISDR, an the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS Net)] provie information on major roughts occurring globally in support of famine relief (Wilhite et al. 2000; Hayes et al. 2011; Sivakumar et al. 2011b). Many of these efforts have come to fruition through work associate with the UNCCD. However, major parts of the worl that face recurring severe roughts still o not have comprehensive information an early warning systems in place (Sivakumar et al. 2011b). The creation an maintenance of national an regional DEWSs in these other areas, as well as the creation an maintenance of a GDEWS, are inhibite by many hurles, incluing inaequate ata networks (station ensity an ata quality), inaequate ata sharing (both between government agencies an ue to the high cost of ata), ata an information proucts that are too complex for use by

11 Paper No. 15 Page 11 Table 3. The U.S. Drought Monitor classification an ranking percentile scheme. Category Description Ranking percentile D0 Abnormally ry 30 D1 Moerate rought 20 D2 Severe rought 10 D3 Extreme rought 5 D4 Exceptional rought 2 ecision makers, unreliable seasonal forecasts, inaequate inices for etecting the early onset an en of rought, the lack of integrate physical an socioeconomic inicators for rought, the lack of impact assessment methoology, ata an information frequently unavailable on an operational real-time basis, an inaequate comprehensive global historical atabase an assessment proucts (Wilhite et al. 2000; Wilhite an Buchanan-Smith 2005; Ager et al. 2007). An aitional hurle is the lack of resources to aress these issues. While the GDMP, by itself, is not able to solve these basic hurles, it provies a mechanism through which coorinate solutions can be sought by leveraging existing technology an builing upon the lessons learne from establishing the NIDIS (Brewer an Heim 2011b). Figure 4. The NADM for the en of December 2011.

12 Paper No. 15 Page 12 Figure 5. Selecte maps from the African Drought Monitor for 15 Jan Global rought monitoring by integrating continental rought monitors The GDM, constructe atop the GDMP, can integrate the existing continental an regional rought monitoring map proucts an activities to function as a truly global rought monitoring mechanism (Figure 1). This is a collaborative process

13 Paper No. 15 Page 13 Figure 6. EDO rought epiction for Europe for the first 10 ays of January whereby each regional or continental rought monitor (CDM) is prepare by the participating nations of that region or continent an integrate into the web-base GDM global map. This iea buils upon previous work by the National Drought Mitigation Center an Dr. Don Wilhite, in the early 2000s, that pointe to the nee for a global rought prepareness network built through regional an global partnerships. Inee, this effort has resulte in the establishment of numerous regional rought monitoring networks (Wilhite 2002; Lawrimore et al. 2002) that contribute ata an analysis to the current integration effort. Each CDM is prepare using a moel uniquely aapte to the requirements an resources of the respective region or continent. As of early 2012, CDM map proucts for North America, Europe, an Africa were integrate an isplaye as part of the GDM (Figure 2); interest has been expresse by groups representing Australia an South America; an coorination with appropriate parties in Asia is also expecte. Leas in each region provie access to the regional rought epiction an coorinate with those within the region on rought monitoring. The NADM is the assessment for North America, the European Drought Observatory (EDO) provies the assessment for Europe, an the African Drought Monitor (ADM) evelope by Princeton University is use for Africa. Existing CDMs have largely built upon existing coorination activities within a region that have le to the evelopment of rought information at a continental scale. It is recognize that continuing to a aitional regions, as well as improving existing regions, will require extensive coorination an buy in from local an national partners who can contribute an take avantage of the information

14 Paper No. 15 Page 14 Figure 7. The Global Drought Monitor Portal global rought assessment an limite number of global proucts. available through the GDMP. It is envisione that this coorination will look ifferent in ifferent locations aroun the worl, but it is essential to ensure that the most accurate an representative information possible be available through the GDMP. The level of information technology (IT) infrastructure, rought expertise, international collaboration an ata exchange, rought assessment capability, an national climate observing systems varies among the continents. Table 2 summarizes these characteristics for the NADM, EDO, an ADM moels. Continental or regional rought monitors (DMs) are neee since the NIDIS IT resources coul not integrate the ozens of national DMs that are available or will be available in the future. For consistent epiction of rought on a global scale, the integration of CDMs requires the establishment of certain stanars among the CDMs for the epiction of rought (e.g., using a rought classification scale similar to the NADM), the creation of CDM shape files in a GIS environment, an the smoothing of CDM rought epictions along continental bounaries The U.S. Drought Monitor an North American Drought Monitor The wie variety of sectors affecte by rought, its iverse geographical an temporal istribution, an the eman place on water supply by human-use systems make it ifficult to evelop a single efinition of rought. The use of a single inex will rarely work for all places at all times an for all types of roughts.

15 Paper No. 15 Page 15 Figure 8. Example of the Global Drought Monitor Portal epicting station ata for (a) 1- an (b) 3-month SPI on a relief base map. As a result, numerous inices have been evelope uring the last hunre years to measure the intensity, impact, an geographic extent of rought (Heim 2002). At the en of the twentieth century, a new approach to rought monitoring a composite approach was evelope in which numerous inices an inicators are consoliate into one comprehensive composite inex. This is the approach use for the NADM. This composite approach is use in the Unite States for the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) (Svoboa et al. 2002) an for national rought monitoring in Canaa (Hawen 2012) an Mexico (Lobato Sánchez 2012). The NADM, a monthly prouct that assesses current rought conitions on a continent-wie basis, is prouce via collaboration between these three countries. The USDM (Figure 3) is prouce on a weekly basis by examining several in situ an remotely sense objective rought inices an inicators, as well as

16 Paper No. 15 Page 16 Figure 9. Example of Global Drought Monitor Portal epiction of remotely sense ata expresse in the North American Drought Monitor rought categories, shown on a relief base map. impacts information an local fiel reports. The inices an inicators are combine using a simple D0 D4 scheme an a percentile ranking methoology (Table 3) to aress both short-term an long-term rought. The key inicators an inices are erive from precipitation, temperature, streamflow, soil moisture, snowpack, an snow water equivalent observations an inclue the SPI, Palmer rought severity inex, an satellite-erive vegetation health inices such as the vegetation rought response inex (VegDRI) (Brown et al. 2008). The USDM unergoes a peer-review process each week uring its preparation to ensure that the weekly rought epiction represents the best blene convergence of evience (Svoboa et al. 2002; Sivakumar et al. 2011a). Drought monitoring on a monthly basis is one in Canaa (Hawen 2012) an Mexico (Lobato Sánchez 2012) using a similar approach. The USDM may be accesse via the web (at The NADM (Figure 4) is prepare on a monthly basis from the monthly rought epictions for Canaa an Mexico an from the USDM for the week closest to the en of the month for the Unite States (Lawrimore et al. 2002; Heim an Brewer 2010; Sivakumar et al. 2011a). The rought epictions in each of the three countries are prepare inepenently of each other by experts within each country. ArcGIS software is use to prepare the national rought epictions in shape-file format using the stanar USDM D0 D4 classification scheme. The lea author, who rotates each month between the three countries, merges the GIS shape files into a continental epiction. Continental rought inicators, compute using the same methoology an calibration perios from ata provie by the three countries, are use as guiance to ajust the epictions across the international bounaries where isagreement between the national DMs exists. The continental inicators currently inclue the SPI, Palmer rought inices, an percent of long-term average precipitation,

17 Paper No. 15 Page 17 Figure 10. Example of rought epictions from the North American Drought Monitor, European Drought Observatory, an African Drought Monitor integrate into the Global Drought Monitor, shown on a relief base map. as well as moele soil moisture from the National Oceanic an Atmospheric Aministration (NOAA) Climate Preiction Center an satellite-erive vegetation health inices. The lea authors are currently provie by NOAA, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, an the National Drought Mitigation Center in the Unite States; Agriculture an Agri-Foo Canaa in Canaa; an the National Meteorological Service (SMN) in Mexico. The map an associate narrative (national narratives are written within each country an merge by the lea author) are translate into the languages of the three countries, English, French, an Spanish. The NADM may be accesse via the web (at temp-an-precip/rought/nam/). The collaborative NADM moel works for North America because (i) all three countries have compatible IT infrastructure, create national rought epictions on an operational basis, an prouce their national components (national rought epictions) in an agree-upon D0 D4 GIS format; (ii) extensive ata networks an near-real-time aily climate observations exist within each country; an (iii) collaborative agreements are in place for international ata exchange an sharing of rought expertise for monitoring, forecasting, an research. The NADM moel may not work for other continents where these conitions are not met The African Drought Monitor For continents where the climate observing networks or IT infrastructure vary from country to country, a ifferent CDM moel is neee. In Africa, extensive

18 Paper No. 15 Page 18 Figure 11. Example of Global Drought Monitor Portal epicting ata from multiple layers shown on a relief base map. The layers inclue the North American Drought Monitor, European Drought Observatory, an African Drought Monitor rought conitions with 3-month SPI station ata. ata networks an near-real-time aily observations are available for some nations but not for others, an national rought monitor assessments generally are not mae on a routine basis an thus are not available for integration into a CDM. Nations on such continents may nee to request expertise from outsie for rought monitoring an forecasting, couple with in-house expertise for impacts, research, planning, an eucation. This is the case for Africa, where Princeton University evelope the African Drought Monitor (Figure 5), which is run in house an being transitione from Princeton to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Preiction an Applications Centre (ICPAC) in Kenya (Sheffiel et al. 2008). The ADM, base on soil moisture, is prouce for the entire continent using a consistent methoology, where station ata from GTS an CLIMAT (WMO coe for reporting monthly climatological ata) transmissions are use for real-time observations an historical ata are from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) an similar compilations (J. Sheffiel 2012, personal communication). Currently, the ADM may be accesse online (at Africa_Drought_Monitor_Webpage/GMinterface.php) Drought monitoring in Europe: The European Drought Observatory moel Europe provies a thir example for monitoring rought on a continental basis. Each country has extensive ata networks proviing near-real-time aily observations, supplemente by satellite observations an moele ata. Through the European Commission, the political infrastructure exists for the creation of international agreements that govern joint research, information sharing, an provision of services, thus enabling the European Commission (EC) Joint Research

19 Paper No. 15 Page 19 Figure 12. Example of the Global Drought Monitor Portal allowing the user to zoom in to isplay ata for iniviual locations. Depicte here is SPI ata for Finel, Luxembourg, with the station s 1- an 3-month SPI plotte in the time-series box. Centre (JRC) to establish the EDO as a tool for assessing, monitoring, an forecasting roughts on a continental scale in Europe (Rossi an Niemeyer 2010; Vogt 2010). With in-house expertise for continental monitoring, forecasting, impacts, research, planning, an eucation, the EDO conucts continental rought assessment (Figure 6), complemente by regional, national, an local expertise an assessments, where available. The station ata come from the GTS an other sources, forecasting ata are available from the European Centre for Meium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), an common rought inices are compute by EDO for multiscale assessment an the mutual exchange of knowlege. Local rought inicators are also accessible through the EDO (J. Vogt 2012, personal communication). The EDO may be accesse online (at Current information provie to the GDMP from EDO is precipitation an SPI ata U.S.-affiliate Pacific islans rought monitoring Coorinate rought monitoring activities in the Pacific Islans are currently being evelope. Through the work of the Pacific Islans Climate Information System an the National Climatic Data Center, rought monitoring an coorination activities have increase, by leveraging existing communications channels, to inclue a monthly iscussion of rought across the basin an to get consensus across the Pacific Islans on the state of rought. This activity is geare towar establishing more frequent an objective analyses of rought across the Pacific by encouraging islan nations to provie more timely ata for analysis, with the goal to create aily to weekly precipitation assessments in support of the rought monitoring activity. The result has been a new section of the National Climatic

20 Paper No. 15 Page 20 Figure 13. Example of North America rought epiction provie by the North American Drought Monitor, epicte on the Global Drought Monitor Portal using a streets base map. Data Center s U.S. State of the Climate monthly report that highlights an reports on rought across the Pacific Islans. An example can be seen online (at The Global Drought Monitor Portal: Structure an functionality The GDMP currently inclues four sections. The first is an abbreviate monthly rought assessment along with a series of global rought inicator proucts, incluing the SPI (Figure 7). Proucts use to populate this section are peer evaluate by the participating regional partners for their applicability, availability, an suitability to show overarching rought conitions. Formal external evaluation of suitability an quality may be aresse in the future. Future proucts to be consiere inclue a suite of Palmer inices as well as soil moisture an other remotely sense proucts. These global proucts will be relatively small in number an are meant to provie a global overview of rought conitions an to allow intercomparisons of rought across the worl, especially along international an regional bounaries. These high-level proucts are evelope using some of the best quality climate information available (Peterson an Easterling 1994), provie a broa-brush look at global rought conitions, an are presente as plain text an

21 Paper No. 15 Page 21 Figure 14. Example of European rought epiction provie by the European Drought Observatory, epicte on the Global Drought Monitor Portal using a hybri base map. static images to encourage use in limite banwith areas. Because they use common base perios, they are appropriate for comparing rought status between locations aroun the worl but o not necessarily represent the severity of a rought at an iniviual location compare to its full perio of recor. To o that, one must use the thir section of the GDMP escribe below. The secon section of the GDMP inclues an interactive map an ata viewer. For locations with higher banwith, Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) compliant web mapping services (WMS) are available an are the mechanism by which regions an continents provie their information to the GDMP. This allows the availability of a larger suite of tools since prouction an maintenance is istribute an also allows users to get more etaile local information. The user may select from a variety of base maps (satellite, streets, topography, geographic relief, an hybri) an layers. The layers inclue station-base ata (SPI at seven time scales from 1 to 24 months) (Figure 8); remotely sense ata (Figure 9); an rought epictions from the NADM, EDO, an ADM (Figure 10), with the capability of overlaying multiple layers (Figure 11). Through the interactive map viewer, users can zoom all the way to iniviual stations to get a etaile look at the rought in a specific location, incluing time series of rought inicator ata for that station (Figure 12). Currently, North America (Figure 13), Europe (Figure 14), an Africa (Figure 15) are proviing WMS services to paint a global rought picture (Figure 10). By leveraging common ata formats an GEO interoperability

22 Paper No. 15 Page 22 Figure 15. Example of African rought epiction provie by the African Drought Monitor, epicte on the Global Drought Monitor Portal using a topographic base map. stanars an testing, proucts from these three sources are available through the GDMP, as will be seen in the thir section. Australia shoul be available soon an Argentina an Brazil are iscussing available ways a South American component coul be contribute. Other countries in the Mile East an Asia have expresse interest in contributing but have not yet committe to the process. The thir section of the GDMP houses a capability for users to rill own from the global to the regional scale in orer to get a more robust suite of rought proucts an services than coul be efficiently hanle through a global interface. The rill-own capability allows users to pass from the global level to authorities on each continent proviing regional level information for more rought information. These regional sites, such as the NADM (Figure 16) website an the European Drought Observatory (Figure 6), provie access to more tools an ata than are available at the global level an further allow users to pass to iniviual national rought monitoring activities, such as for the Unite States (USDM) (Figure 17) or Spain (Figure 18), for even more specificity, since it is recognize that rought is ominantly a local phenomenon. Further rill own to states or watershes within a country can then be provie, shoul the nation ecie it is beneficial. By using this neste architecture, ecision makers at all levels can get access to the information they nee seamlessly an efficiently.

23 Paper No. 15 Page 23 Figure 16. The North American Drought Monitor regional website house at the NIDIS portal. The fourth section of the GDMP is a general information section that inclues etails about those that participate an will also inclue help an etails about contributing, when it is complete. The GDMP has been esigne so that aitional sections can be ae when new components of a GDIS/GDEWS become available. 4. Summary an the future During the past 12 months, the NIDIS an the NOAA National Climatic Data Center have been instrumental in expaning an operating the prototype Global Drought Monitor Portal while builing linkages to existing international activities an programs. This effort has benefite from coorination with GEO an the WMO. The GDMP was initially establishe in the fall of 2010 (fiscal year 2011) with regional rought information provie by North America an Europe an for Africa by way of Princeton University. Since the initial establishment, coorination efforts have continue. Australia an South America have entere iscussions on proviing access to their information an, as of early 2012, Australian ata have been inclue in a prototype server. Following approval by Australia of the way their ata are provie, it will be going live on the GDMP. Further, in the spring of 2011, the GDMP was expane to inclue a suite of global rought inicators ientifie by experts an aopte by WMO as the necessary measures to examine rought from a meteorological stanpoint. The GDMP has been inclue in recent

24 Earth Interactions Paper No. 15 Page 24 Figure 17. The U.S. Drought Monitor homepage is house at the National Drought Mitigation Center. upates to the GEO work plan. Finally, the GDMP has benefite from substantial coorination with WMO on both their Global Framework for Climate Services an the National Drought Policy efforts. The GDMP is recognize as having the potential to be a major contributor to both of these activities. Future plans involve operational release of the Australian rought information an continue interaction with South America on their involvement. Aitional coorination with appropriate parties in Asia is also expecte. Further coorination

25 Paper No. 15 Page 25 Figure 18. Example of rought conitions in Spain, provie by the Sistema Integrao e Informacion el Agua (SIA) within the Spanish Ministry of Rural an Marine Environment, accesse via the European Drought Observatory. with the Worl Climate Research Program an WMO on leveraging the GDMP example an infrastructure to begin establishment of a GDIS is also unerway as is continuing iscussions with WMO on the GDMP s place in the Global Framework for Climate Services. Limite scientific an technical resources frequently inhibit climate monitoring, sustainability, an evelopment in some parts of the worl. Mechanisms such as the UNCCD help peoples in semiari regions to combat esertification an mitigate the effects of rought. The creation of the GDMP is a new tool that provies crucial support for rought monitoring an mitigation in semiari regions an other parts of the worl. The GDMP provies important rought information to participating nations as well as serves as an infrastructure that can be populate with rought information originating from nations in all parts of the worl. It is available to all parties who have an interest an stake in rought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, an eucation. The GDMP provies crucial support for

26 Paper No. 15 Page 26 rought monitoring an mitigation, especially in semiari regions, thus enhancing climate monitoring, sustainability, an evelopment in semiari regions an aroun the worl. Acknowlegments. The authors wish to thank an acknowlege all those involve in GDMP GDIS activity. The path to this activity has been a long one stretching over the past 5 years with the last 2 seeing intensive activity an partnerships bearing fruit. While there are too many iniviuals to mention from our numerous interactions with WMO, GEO, an WCRP, we wish to thank all for their contributions to this activity. In particular, we woul like to acknowlege Dr. M. V. K. Sivakummar an Mr. Robert Stefanski at the WMO, Mr. Will Pozzi at GEO, Dr. Roger Pulwarty at NOAA, an Dr. Donal Wilhite at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln. Without their assistance with coorination an organization, the project woul not have been able to gather as many partners as it currently has. We also wish to acknowlege Dr. Siegfrie Schubert for leaing efforts that will improve the suite of rought preiction proucts available for inclusion in the project. Finally, we thank those we are irectly partnering with to share information on an operational basis: Dr. Jürgen Vogt at EDO, Dr. Justin Sheffiel at Princeton University, Dr. Ben Lloy-Hughes at the University College of Lonon, Dr. Margaret Nicholson at the Australian Bureau of Agriculture an Resource Economics, an Dr. Jaya Jayasuriya at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. It is their willingness to coorinate with national an local partners to provie an integrate regional epiction of rought that is the basis for the success of this project. References Ager, N., an Coauthors, 2007: Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Aaptation an Vulnerability, M. L. Parry et al., Es., Cambrige University Press, AMS, 1997: Meteorological rought Policy statement. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, Barnett, T., an Coauthors, 2008: Human-inuce changes in the hyrology of the western Unite States. Science, 319, , oi: /science Brewer, M. J., an R. R. Heim Jr., 2011a: International rought workshop series. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, E29 E31., an, 2011b: The Global Drought Monitor Portal. Towars a Compenium on National Drought Policy: Proceeings of an Expert Meeting on the Preparation of a Compenium on National Drought Policy, M. V. K. Sivakumar et al., Es., Worl Meteorological Organization, Brown, J. F., B. D. Warlow, T. Taesse, M. J. Hayes, an B. C. Ree, 2008: The Vegetation Drought Response Inex (VegDRI): A new integrate approach for monitoring rought stress in vegetation. GIScience Remote Sens., 45, 16 46, oi: / Cayan, D. R., T. Das, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, M. Tyree, an A. Gershunov, 2010: Future ryness in the southwest US an the hyrology of the early 21st century rought. Proc. Natl. Aca. Sci. USA, 107, Hawen, T., 2012: Monitoring an assessing rought an rought impacts in Canaa. Proc. North American Drought Monitor Forum, Cancún, Mexico, CONAGUA, 38 pp. [Available online at %20NADM%20Forum% pf.] Hayes, M., M. Svoboa, N. Wall, an M. Wihalm, 2011: The Lincoln eclaration on rought inices: Universal meteorological rought inex recommene. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92,