The History and Making of the U.S. Drought Monitor

Transcription

1 The History and Making of the U.S. Drought Monitor Mike Hayes, Director Mark Svoboda, Climatologist/Monitoring Program Area Leader Kelly Smith, Communications Specialist National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln HMNDP, USDM Side Session, Geneva, Switzerland, March 11, 2013

2 1997: WDCC MAP WCWS Evolution 1998: NDMC Drought Monitoring product

3 U.S. Drought Impact Map: circa October 1998

4 1999:The U.S. Drought Monitor Since 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map -- the U.S. Drought Monitor -- with input from numerous federal and non-federal agencies

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6 USDM (NADM) Annual Forums " Lincoln, NE, November 2000 " Asheville, NC, April 2002 " NADM, Asheville, June 2003 " Cedar City, UT, October 2003 " NADM, Regina, SK, October 2004 " Washington, D.C., October 2005 " NADM, Mexico City, October 2006 " Portland, OR, October 2007 " NADM, Ottawa, October 2008 " Austin, TX, October 2009 " NADM, Asheville, April 2010 " Washington, D.C., April 2011 " NADM, Cancun, Mexico, April 2012 " West Palm Beach, FL, April 2013

7 Approaches to Drought Assessment " Single index or indicator (parameter) " Multiple indices or indicators " Composite (or hybrid ) Indicator

8 The U.S. Drought Monitor Since 1999, NOAA (CPC, NCDC, WRCC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map -- the U.S. Drought Monitor -- with input from numerous federal and non-federal agencies Western Region Climate Center on board authors in all Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCC s, SC s, federal/state agencies, etc.) (~350 experts)

9 Objectives " Fujita-like scale " NOT a forecast! " NOT a drought declaration! " Identify impacts (S, L) " Assessment of current conditions " Incorporate local expert input " Be as objective as possible

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11 Percentiles and the U.S. Drought Monitor " Advantages of percentiles: " Can be applied to any parameter " Can be used for any length of data record " Puts drought in historical perspective D4, Exceptional Drought: once per 50+ years D3, Extreme Drought: once per 20 to 50 years D2, Severe Drought: once per 10 to 20 years D1, Moderate Drought: once per 5 to 10 years D0, Abnormally Dry: once per 3 to 5 years

12 U.S. Drought Monitor Map Drought Intensity Categories D0 Abnormally Dry (30%tile) D1 Drought Moderate (20%tile) D2 Drought Severe (10%tile) D3 Drought Extreme (5%tile) D4 Drought Exceptional (2%tile)

13 Integrates Key Drought Indicators: Palmer Drought Index SPI KBDI Modeled Soil Moisture NLDAS 7-Day Avg. Streamflow Precipitation Anomalies U.S. Drought Monitor Growing Season: Crop Moisture Index Sat. Veg. Health Index VegDRI/ESI/etc. Soil Moisture Mesonets State/Regional In The West: SWSI Reservoir levels Snowpack (SNOTEL) SWE Streamflow Created in ArcGIS

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16 Objective Blends Ø Short-Term Blend 35% Palmer Z Index 25% 3-Month Precip. 20% 1-Month Precip. 13% CPC Soil Model 7% Palmer Drought Index

17 The Importance of Local Expert Input " The U.S. Drought Monitor Team Relies on Field Observation Feedback from the Local Experts for Impacts Information & Ground Truth " Listserver (~350 Participants: 2/3 Federal, 1/3 State/Univ.) Local NWS & USDA/NRCS Offices State Climate Offices State Drought Task Forces Regional Climate Centers NIDIS Basin Webinars

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19 Regional and Local Feedback/ Input Process " Various webinars/telecons/reports/products " Regional Climate Centers and NOAA Regional Climate contacts " SC s " National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Pilot DEWS basin webinars: " UCRB (Upper Colorado River Basin) " ACF (Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint) " California? Upper Missouri River Basin? " North Carolina, Hawaii, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Alabama, Florida, South Dakota, Kentucky, Arizona and Montana

20 UCRB Weekly Drought Assessment Consensus recommendation to USDM author

21 Some Examples of Decision Making Using the DM (Science before Policy) " Policy: 2008 Farm Bill/Internal Revenue Service/US Department of Agriculture (Secretarial Disaster Designations, FSA + NRCS programs)/noaa National Weather Service/Environmental Protection Agency/State drought plan triggers " ~3.5M+ page views and ~2M+ visitors/ year " Media: The Weather Channel/USA Today and all major newspapers/internet Media/ Network News/ CNN/NPR/etc. " Presidential/Congressional briefings

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24 Summary " The USDM process is adaptable to any region " Utilizes existing data and networks " USDM has matured/evolved over time " Local input and participation is key to the success " The science and trust in the USDM process provides the confidence for policy use to follow ( science before policy )

25 Contact Information: Mark Svoboda Mike Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln

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29 Objective Blends Ø Long-Term Blend 25% Palmer Hydrological Index 20% 24-Month Precip. 20% 12-Month Precip. 15% 6-Month Precip. 10% 60-Month Precip. 10% CPC Soil Model

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35 Fast Track Secretarial Disaster Designation Process " The streamlined process provides for nearly an automatic designation for any county in which drought conditions, as reported in the U.S. Drought Monitor ( when any portion of a county meets the D2 (Severe Drought) drought intensity value for eight consecutive weeks. " A county that has a portion of its area in a drought intensity value of D3 (Extreme Drought) or higher at any time during the growing season also would be designated as a disaster area.

36 Easing of CRP Restrictions " Conservation Reserve Program (CRP land): Nearly all counties in the U.S. qualify for emergency grazing and haying based on a D0 trigger (previously, qualified with a D3 or D4). " Emergency grazing extended through November 30, 2012 (normally ends September 30). " September 2011 expiration of provisions in the 2008 Farm Bill are making disaster relief difficult to deliver to livestock producers.

37 " 2008 Farm Bill Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) Payouts (financial assistance to producers who suffered grazing losses due to drought or fire on or after January 1, 2008, and before October 1, 2011, during the calendar year in which the loss occurs): " 2008 calendar year: $165,540,837 " 2009 calendar year: $ 98,739,950 " 2010 calendar year: $ 33,334,458 " 2011 calendar year: $180,950,088 " 2012 calendar year: $ 0 " LFP total, : $478,565,333 Courtesy: Brad Rippey, USDA

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40 Next Steps " Continue interactions with NIDIS and the Regional Drought Early Warning Systems " Continue to encourage and incorporate new/ enhanced/innovative tools: ACIS gridded SPI/ PDSI, remote sensing derived, NWS Precipitation Analysis, NLDAS, etc " Taking the Objective Blends from a climate division base to a station-based/gridded layer " Continue to improved the monitoring data available including soil moisture, snowpack, impacts, etc