NADM, NACEM, and Opportunities for Future Collaboration

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1 NADM, NACEM, and Opportunities for Future Collaboration Richard R. Heim Jr. NOAA/NESDIS/National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina, U.S.A. 4th Annual DRI Workshop January 2009, Regina, Sask., Canada

2 North American Drought Monitor (NADM) NADM is an operational product issued monthly that provides a general summary of current drought conditions across North America; first issued publicly in Drought conditions in each country determined by specialists in that country. The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor from the week closest to the end of the month is used in the U.S. Participants: U.S. (most of the USDM authors): NOAA (NCDC, CPC) USDA / JAWF NDMC Canada: Agriculture & Agri-food Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Mexico: National Meteorological Service (SMN) NADM is an international partnership, a NOAA example of the implementation of GEOSS of the Americas

3 NADM Continental Drought Indicators Drought conditions in US, MX, CN are determined independently based on different data, indices, & analyses within each country by analysts in each country Drought indices covering entire continent are needed Same indices, same analysis period, same methodologies This consistency needed for depiction across international boundaries Issues concerning the regional applicability of drought indices (e.g., Palmer Indices, SPI) even definition of drought

4 Objective Blends Objective blends integrate multiple indicators into a product update using a percentile ranking method All parameters are first rendered as percentiles with respect to a standard period using a percent rank method The parameters (drought indicators) are then combined using a weighting scheme Short- and Long-Term Blends produced Need serially complete data Operationally produced weekly for USDM using NOAA/CPC s real-time daily and weekly climate division data and NOAA/NCDC s monthly archive of indices for Experimental for NADM; monthly; use gridded temperature, precipitation, & Palmer index fields for North America;

5 USDM Objective Blends

6 NADM Objective Blends: Short-Term USDM Percentiles based on NADM Percentiles based on

7 NADM Objective Blends: Long-Term USDM Percentiles based on NADM Percentiles based on

8 Opportunities for Collaboration Research Definition of drought in diverse climates Humid, subhumid, semi-arid, arid, polar climates The impacts of drought even the very nature of drought differ from the Plains and Prairies to the humid eastern U.S. and maritime provinces to northern Canada and Alaska to the Southwest U.S. Applicability of the various drought indices in diverse climates Empirical analyses to determine appropriate components and weights for the objective blend indicators

9 Opportunities for Collaboration Data For the NADM continental indicators, monthly precipitation and temperature are being used from approx daily near-real time Canadian stations (DLY02). Data completeness and length of record (1951-present) requirements reduce the number of useable stations, especially in northern Canada. To increase number of stations (station density): Include additional NADM indicators (percent of normal precipitation) using a shorter base period ( instead of ) Use gridded data Use modeled data (ECMWF, others?)

10 North America Climate Extremes Monitoring (NACEM) System Purpose: Improve the scientific understanding of observed changes in extreme climate conditions From a set of 27 core climate extremes indices, a subset of 12 are being analyzed at this time Based on work of WMO Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices Data Base consists of daily temperature and precipitation data from 1955-present for stations across Canada (210 stations), US (750), and Mexico (300)

11 NACEM Web Page Products: Monthly/seasonal maps of trends and anomalies for North America or the 3 individual countries Stations can be subsetted based on elevation, trend significance, percent of available data Time series graphs of individual station data

12 NACEM Indices Number of Frost Days (Tmin < 0 C) Number of Summer Days (Tmax > 25 C) Number of Icing Days (Tmax < 0 C) Number of Tropical Nights (Tmin > 20 C) Growing Season Length Percentage of Days when Tmax > 90th percentile Percentage of Days when Tmax < 10th percentile Percentage of Days when Tmin > 90th percentile Percentage of Days when Tmin < 10th percentile Greatest 5-day Total Precipitation Simple Precipitation Intensity Index Maximum Length of Dry Spell (Pcp < 1 mm)

13 Opportunities for Collaboration NACEM Calculate indices on a regional, country, and continentscale basis Develop North American gridded database of daily temperature and precipitation Expand the number of available extremes indices Update the daily station data base on an operational basis Monitor the occurrence of new daily, monthly, and alltime records for temperature, precipitation, and snowfall as they occur (US & Canada)

14 NIDIS National Integrated Drought Information System Interagency Federal/Regional/State/Tribal/University Drought Mitigation and Early Warning Effort for U.S. Drought Portal: Current conditions Forecasting Impacts Planning Education Research Pilot Projects Regional/watershed decision prototypes

15 Global Drought Monitoring International Drought Early Warning System Objectives: An International Drought Information System that weaves together current and future observation systems from participating Nations to provide: An early warning system for drought Information for drought response, planning, mitigation, and recovery An interactive, web-based drought portal and analysis tools Provide critical drought information to countries with inadequate monitoring resources Goals: A system of systems for data & information sharing, communication, & capacity building to take on the growing worldwide threat of drought Regular drought warning assessments issued as frequently as possible with increased frequency during a crisis

16 International Drought Monitoring and NIDIS -- Opportunities Fold expanded international drought monitoring into a NIDIS pilot project Synergistically develop and share products, data, and information on scales from local to international Integration of international observing systems with remote sensing information Integration of international Web Mapping Services for global drought analysis and depiction Leverage and partner with existing activities around the globe

17 Thank-You! NIDIS: Dr. Mike Brewer,