Abiel Yohannes College of Arts and Social Sciences Department of Geography. Advisor: Prof. Zemenfes Tsighe

Transcription

1 Name: Abiel Yohannes College of Arts and Social Sciences Department of Geography Advisor: Prof. Zemenfes Tsighe

2 ANALYSIS OF URBAN SPRAWL AND MODELING USING GEOSPATIAL TOOLS IN NU ES ZOBA KEREN, ERITREA

3 Back Ground of the Study: The complexity of land use change processes has been the neglected area in much of the Eritrean scholarship. Therefore, the Land Use/Land Cover Change became a key issue in the interdisciplinary research program of GIERI (Geoinformatics Eritrea), of which this MSc research has been part.

4 The Study Area:

5 Research Objectives: Detect, quantify, analyze, and forecast urban land use changes using remotely sensed data, geospatial and modeling tools. Research Questions: The principal questions of this research is to understand how much of the built up area of Nu es Zoba Keren has grown out ward; to what extent has it impacted the productive land and the surrounding natural environment within the Nu es Zoba in the last three decades( ).

6 Data and Instruments Data Landsat Images SRTM s DEM Spot 5 IKINOS Google Earth Waypoints Institutional Documents Instruments Garmin GNSS QGIS2.18 SCP Plugin GRASS GIS FRAGSTATS Terrset Geospatial Monitoring and Modeling System Microsoft Excel

7 LULC Maps for the four Temporal Instants:

8 Validation:

9 Area in Hectares Graphical Representation of the LULCC: Built-Up Agricultural Area Grassland and Shrub Bare Land Intermittent Streams Water Body LULC Classes

10 An Overview of the Overall LULCC between :

11 Urban Land Use Change Analysis Using Spatial Metrics:

12 Summary of the Spatial Metrics Analysis of the Urban LULCC: The Nu es Zoba has aggregated and clumped urban patches. The built-up areas have grown by 473% ( hec.(604 hectares)) between 1984 and 2015 The number of individual urban patches in the landscape have increased by 31.25% between 1984 and significant growth in the number of urban block ( 72%) -higher level of fragmentation in the development of the built-up areas ( 24%)-development of urban features in open spaces and it also indicates that urban growth has been occurred gradually in the surrounding of the existing developed areas The average length of urban boundary in relation to total landscape area has grown significantly (195%) with an increase in the land use fragmentation and development of continuous urban features-sprawling. There is a considerable growth (647%) of the historical urban core-significant continuous (compact) development of urban features. The space between urban neighbors is shrinking (28%) over time as a result of higher urbanization density-decrease in the distance between the urban patches.

13 Spatial Trend of Change:

14 Analysis of Pattern and Processes of Urban Growth: Degree-offreedom, Degree of Sprawl, and Degree of goodness Absence of administrative boundaries among the Mimhidar kebabis (administrative areas) in the town Lack proper predetermined & preplanned expectations of growth

15 Pearson s chi-square Statistics and Urban Growth: m X i 2 = j=1 Mj M j E 2 M j E n m X 2 = i=1 j=1 E Mij M ij E M ij 2 X 2 (overall) = 60.34

16 Shannon s Entropy and Degree-of-Sprawl: Urban sprawl is the outward growth of towns and cities causing them to engulf surrounding villages and countryside (Wapwera, 2013). m H i = p j log e p j (Bhatta, 2010) j=1 n m H = i=1 j=1 p ij log e p ij H(overall) = 2.24 log e nxm =3.18, and halfway mark is 1.59

17 Degree of Goodness: Refers to the degree at which observed growth relates the expected growth and the magnitude of compactness as opposed to sprawl. G i = log e X i 2 1 H i log e m (Bhatta, 2010) G = log e X 2 1 H log e nxm G(overall) = 3.73

18 The modeling process and prediction for the year 2025 depended on the assumption that the nature and developments in the Nu es Zoba stayed similar to the transitions of land use and land cover changes between 1994 and This means that the regulations for urban development were kept constant in a way no new laws or regulations would be introduced.

19 Conclusive Remarks: The study clearly demonstrated the strong side of the readily available open source software and freely available spatial data in order to do the research in a cost effective manner. Due to high degree of sprawling the capacity of keren to provide services efficiently is stretching to breaking point During the time span , the sub-zone has not experienced goodness in urban growth. The adopted approaches will be very useful for other cities in the country that lack proper predetermined & preplanned expectations of growth.

20 Thank You!!!!!