Evaluating habitat suitability predictions: Using contemporary sightings and prey data to assess model assumptions
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1 Evaluating habitat suitability predictions: Using contemporary sightings and prey data to assess model assumptions Rowenna Gryba Stantec Consulting Ltd. Edward Gregr SciTech Consulting Ltd. Funding: NPRB Photo: John Ford
2 Outline Evaluation of right whale habitat suitability using independent data Model assumptions Evaluation methods and data Results
3 Model Assumptions What are we predicting? Does habitat suitability = species occurrence? Does habitat suitability = foraging areas?
4 Model Assumptions Niche concepts (Soberon & Peterson 2005) FN Abiotic Mobility P RN Biotic Fundamental Niche (FN) = Abitioc Realized Niche (RN) = Abiotic Biotic Distribution(P) = Abiotic Biotic Mobility
5 Right Whale habitat suitability Annual Seasonal (NE subpopulation) All Spring NE subpopulation Summer Habitat predictions for North Pacific right whales in the North Pacific based on historic accounts and physical oceanography. (Gregr 2011, Endangered Species Research).
6 Evaluation 1. Operational validation Does the model mimic the system? Does habitat suitability = occurrence? Fundamental Niche?
7 Evaluation Contemporary Sightings Spring Brownell et al. (2001) Annual Summer
8 Evaluation 2. Conceptual validation Are the model hypotheses correct? Does habitat suitability = foraging areas? Realized Niche?
9 Evaluation Prey data Spring DFO & NMFS ( ) Annual Summer
10 Evaluation Methods 1. Boyce Index (Hirzel et al. 2006) 2. Adjusted Skewness (Gregr & Trites 2008) Both methods: Presence only Incorporate range of habitat suitability Associate presence data habitat suitability classes
11 Evaluation Boyce Index Spearman s Rank 10 classes Habitat suitability classes
12 Evaluation Adjusted Skewness Measure of asymmetry 100 classes Predicted habitat suitability
13 Results: North Pacific Scale Boyce Index Adjusted Skewness Spatial Extents North Pacific North Pacific Evaluation Sightings Prey Sightings Prey Data Set Model: All Annual (n=51) (n=517) Habitat suitability
14 Results: North Pacific Scale Realized niche Fundamental niche Habitat suitability predictions are likely estimating potential distribution
15 Results: Sub-population scale NE Sub-population Boyce Index Adjusted Skewness Spatial Extents North Pacific North Pacific Evaluation Data Sightings Prey Sightings Prey Set Model: NE Subpopulation Annual (n=51) Spring (n=19) Summer (n=34) (n=517) (n=310) (n=400) Habitat suitability Annual Spring Summer
16 Results at Sub-population scale Annual model validation Basin wide dispersion largest influence Sub-population inter-specific interactions Prey data is a better evaluator at this scale Conceptual Validation Seasonal model validation Spatial bias in validation data
17 Results: Regional Scale Boyce Index Adjusted Skewness Spatial Extents Regional Regional Berring BC Berring BC Evaluation Data Set Prey Prey Prey Prey Model: All Annual Spring NE Subpopulation Annual Spring Spring Summer
18 Results at regional scales Bering Sea annual model is missing something at the conceptual level? Seasonal prey data allows for further investigation into model performance. Apparent when looking between spring and summer predictions
19 Conclusions Different types of validation data can expand on our knowledge on operational and conceptual levels. Validation at different scales can give more informative results Seasonal prey data provides further insight
20 Thank you! Photo: John Ford
Figure 1. Locations of major geographic features cited in the text. The inserted graph
Figure 1. Locations of major geographic features cited in the text. The inserted graph shows estimated numbers of Steller sea lions (all ages) in Alaska from 1956 to 2000 (based on Trites and Larkin, 1996).
Trites and Larkin, 1996). The dashed line shows the division between the declining
Fig. 1. Locations of major geographic features cited in the text. The inserted graph shows estimated numbers of Steller sea lions (all ages) in Alaska from 1956 to 2000 (based on Trites and Larkin, 1996).
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