Atlantic Region s Changing Climate. Dr. Adam Fenech, University of Prince Edward Island Climate Change and Aquaculture Symposium 11 March 2014

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1 Atlantic Region s Changing Climate Dr. Adam Fenech, University of Prince Edward Island Climate Change and Aquaculture Symposium 11 March 2014

2 Disclaimer Analysis has not been checked Some analysis uses raw climate data, not quality-controlled homogenized data Work has not been peer-reviewed

3 Dr. Adam Fenech says: Every Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts or Adaptation study begins with examining the past climate and the future climate

4 Outline: 1. Atlantic Region s Past Climate 2. Atlantic Region s Future Climate 3. Atlantic Region s Ocean Temperatures 4. Ocean Acidification on the Scotian Shelf

5 Has the Atlantic Region s Temperatures Changed in the Past 100 years? Past 50 years? Past 30 years? Warmer? Colder? No Change? Don t Know! Don t Care! 5

Temperature Normals 6 5 Annual Mean Temperature Climate Normals Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada 5.2 5.3 5.

6 Temperature Normals 6 5 Annual Mean Temperature Climate Normals Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada degrees Celsius degrees Celsius Annual Mean Temperature Climate Normals Truro, Nova Scotia, Canada

7 Trends in PEI s Annual Mean Temperature 8 Annual Mean Temperature Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island 1873 to C C Year Temperature Increases Mostly from Winter Night-time Lows 7

8 Newfoundland s Changing Seasons Annual Mean Temperature St. John's A, Newfoundland degrees Celsius Year Season Mean Temperature ( C) Winter +2.1 Spring +0.4 Summer +1.5 Autumn +1.9

9 PEI s Monthly Temperatures 100 Years Later 1.2 Difference between and in the Monthly Mean Temperatures Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C December November October September August July June May April March February January 9

Temperature Extremes # of days Tmax> 27.5 C 25 20 15 10 5 Extreme Hot Days Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island 1873 to 2011 Over previous 138 years 1937 experienced most extreme hot days at 24.

10 Temperature Extremes # of days Tmax> 27.5 C Extreme Hot Days Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island 1873 to 2011 Over previous 138 years 1937 experienced most extreme hot days at over the past 30 years Year Extreme Cold Days Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island 1873 to the year with the most extreme cold days over the past 30 years # of days Tmin<-20 C Pinatubo Year

11 Has Atlantic Region s Precipitation Changed in the Past 100 years? Past 50 years? Past 30 years? Wetter? Drier? No Change? Don t Know! Don t Care! 11

12 Precipitation Normals Annual Total Precipitation "Normals" Truro, Nova Scotia, Canada mm/year

13 Atlantic Region s Changing Climate Total Precipitation St. John's A, Newfoundland mm Year Ø Over past 70 years +4% past 30 years Annual Total Precipitation Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island 1873 to Ø mm Over past 142 years -14% past 30 years Year

14 Snow Days Snow Days "Normal" Truro, Nova Scotia, Canada Days per year with measureable snow

15 Frequency of Precipitation 1980 to 2012 Charlottetown, PEI 12% % * Year 14 Over previous 32 years raining/snowing less often (# of days decreasing) especially in summer Intensity of Precipitation 1980 to 2012 Charlottetown, PEI Over previous 32 years raining/snowing harder (more per event) especially in the summer and autumn 6% mm/event Year 15

16 Looking Into Atlantic Region s Future 16

17 Atlantic Region s Future Climate Temperature Change by 2050s ( C)

18 Atlantic Region s Future Climate Precipitation Change by 2050s ( % )

19 Ocean Temperatures Source: Peter Galbrieth, DFO

20 Gulf of St. Lawrence Temperatures Source: Peter Galbrieth, DFO

21 Ocean Acidification Increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations leads to increased CO2 concentrations in the surface ocean (i.e., upper metres or so) As carbon dioxide dissolves in the surface ocean, a certain proportion reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid, which is a weak acid that increases the dissolved hydrogen ion concentration and decreases ph

22 Ocean Acidification Impacts Altered seawater chemistry Dissolution of corals and calcareous species Changes in benthic invertebrate and fish productivity Changes in species composition and dominance Increased seaweed and sea grass growth Impacted economy and society

23 ph Changes on the Scotian Shelf Source: DFO, 2009

24 Conclusions for Atlantic Region Climate is warmer, and wetter/drier (depending on where) over past 100 years (especially past years) Future climate projected to be warmer (~3-4 C) and wetter (~6-12%) Ocean temperatures follow ambient air temperatures Gulf of St.Lawrence temperatures increasing Scotian Shelf acidity increasing

Oceanographic Conditions in the Gulf of St. Lawrence during 1999

Fisheries and Oceans Science Pêches et Océans Sciences DFO Science Laurentian Region Stock Status Report G4-01 (2000) Researh vessel CCGS Martha L. Black Oceanographic Conditions in the Gulf of St. Lawrence