How and why is the timing and occurrence of seasonal migrants in the Gulf of Maine changing due to climate?

Transcription

1 How and why is the timing and occurrence of seasonal migrants in the Gulf of Maine changing due to climate? Dan Pendleton, the New England Aquarium with PIs Michelle Staudinger & Adrian Jordaan

2 Gulf of Maine, generalized circulation Bar Harbor, ME Portland, ME Yarmouth, NS Boston Pershing et al. 29

3 Climate change and variablity in the Northwest Atlantic Anomaly ( ) A Area (1 7 km 2 ) C Long-term trend in the GOM:.3 Cy 1 Gulf of Maine.2.2 Trend ( yr 1 ) Year Mills Pershing et al. et 213, al. 215 Pershing Science et (Oct. al th) Last-decade trend in the GOM:.23 Cy 1 Variability in SST marine heatwave: SST anomalies of 2 3 C Spring conditions 3 weeks earlier Fall conditions lasted 3 more weeks Slide credit: Arnault LeBris, GMRI, DFO

4 Objectives & Data Objectives Measure phenology - seasonal *timing* of recurring life events Assess trends in timing of habitat use o Arrival, Departure, Peak use Examine influences of local, regional and basin-scale climate and oceanographic processes on phenology Data and species mammals, sea turtles, seals North Atlantic Right Whale Catalog (not just for RWs) o 4836 surveys, o Whales, dolphins, sea turtles, seals NOAA Stranding Database, sea turtles and seals NASA MODIS-Aqua, Pathfinder, SeaWiFS, NSIDC sea ice, NAO

5 Historic distribution and decimation

6 Modern Climatological Migratory Phenology Bay of Fundy and Roseway Basin: Aug Sept Great South Channel: May July Cape Cod Bay: December May November February: Calving females in the Southeast US

7 New patterns emerging 25 Bay of Fundy Sightings Individuals 3 4 Gulf of Maine 3 1 Great South Channel CCB & MB 3 2 Southeast US

8 Prey availability and predator arrival 13 Whale arrival day east of Cape Cod Modeled Calanus (ind / m 3 ) Pershing et al. 29, MEPS Pendleton et al., 29 MEPS

9 Changing copepod distributions from the mid-atlantic to the Gulf of Maine Calanus finmarchicus Pseudocalanus spp. Centropages typicus

10 Consequences FISHING GEAR VESSELS Photo: D.Pendleton, NEAq NOAA image, NEAq.orgEcoHealth Alliance Photo: M.Zani, NEAq

11 Increases in entanglement Late period begins (always ends with 214) Probability of encountering seriously entangled or injured Eg Late period.9 Early period Early period ends (always begins with 2)

12 Enormous effort to eliminate death from ship-strike Jan 1 May 15 / Mar 1 Apr 3 Apr 1 Jul 31

13 ECOLOGY Critical that we develop a better understanding of timing of habitat use North Atlantic Right Whales in Crisis Scott D. Kraus, 1 * Moira W. Brown, 1 Hal Caswell, 2 Christopher W. Clark, 3 Masami Fujiwara, 4 Philip K. Hamilton, 1 Robert D. Kenney, 5 Amy R. Knowlton, 1 Scott Landry, 6 Charles A. Mayo, 6 William A. McLellan, 7 Michael J. Moore, 2 Douglas P. Nowacek, 8 D. Ann Pabst, 7 Andrew J. Read, 9 Rosalind M. Rolland 1 POLICY FORUM constant, as many as 47 right whales could have died in the last 16 months. Of the 5 dead right whales reported since 1986, at least 19 were killed by vessel collisions, and at least six were killed by fishing gear entanglements (7). Also during this period, there were 61 confirmed cases of whales carrying fishing gear, including the mortalities. Outcomes of the remaining cases and the fate of individual whales varied. Death is suspected in 12 cases, because of an animal s subsequent disappearance Recent Scientific Publications Cast Doubt on North Atlantic Right Whale Future Scott D. Kraus 1 *, Robert D. Kenney 2, Charles A. Mayo 3, William A. McLellan 4, Michael J. Moore 5 and Douglas P. Nowacek 6 Effectiveness of mandatory vessel speed limits for protecting North Atlantic right whales David W. Laist 1, *, Amy R. Knowlton 2, Daniel Pendleton 2 1 Marine Mammal Commission, 434 East-West Highway, Rm. 7, Bethesda, Maryland 2814, USA 2 New England Aquarium, 1 Central Wharf, Boston, Massachusetts 211, USA Effects of fishing rope strength on the severity of large whale entanglements Amy R. Knowlton, Jooke Robbins, Scott Landry, Henry A. McKenna, Scott D. Kraus, and Timothy B. Werner

14 Modeling two approaches 1 st : right whales, 2 nd : other species Dynamic occupancy models o Estimate occupancy, immigration, emigration o o o Cape Cod Bay 1 st analysis underway Collaboration with Center for Coastal Studies Chlorophyll important, SST not important Multi-state open robust design o o Residency patterns, arrival & departure of demographic groups to/between habitats Collaboration with USGS Florida, State of Florida, and Florida Wildlife Commission

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