Conflict between Space and Crime: Exploring the Relationship between Spatial Configuration and Crime Location

Transcription

1 Conflict between Space and Crime: Exploring the Relationship between Spatial Configuration and Crime Location Perver K. Baran NC State University William R. Smith NC State University Umut Toker California Polytechnic SU, SLO Paper presented at EDRA37, Atlanta, May 3-7, 2006

2 Theories of Crime Location Study Objectives Research Methodology Data Space Syntax Methodology GIS Database Analysis and Findings Conclusions Overview

3 Theories of Crime Location Social Science Theories: focus on spatial location of crime Social Disorganization Theory: poverty, racial and ethnic heterogeneity, and residential mobility Routine Activity Theory: motivated offenders, attractive targets/opportunities, and an absence of capable guardianship against crime Urban Design Theories: focus on site-specific and situational features of a place Defensible Space Theory: Oscar Newman territoriality, natural surveillance (Bases for CPTED and Secured by Design) Prospect/Refuge Theory: Appleton - physical and visual access and opportunity for escape Space Syntax Theory: Hillier and Hanson configurational accessibility

4 Theories of Crime Location Social Science Theories: focus on spatial location of crime Social Disorganization Theory: poverty, racial and ethnic heterogeneity, and residential mobility Routine Activity Theory: motivated offenders, attractive targets/opportunities, and an absence of capable guardianship against crime Urban Design Theories: focus on site-specific and situational features of a place Defensible Space Theory: Oscar Newman territoriality, natural surveillance (Bases for CPTED and Secured by Design) Prospect/Refuge Theory: Appleton - physical and visual access and opportunity for escape Space Syntax Theory: Hillier and Hanson configurational accessibility

5 Theories of Crime Location Social Science Theories: focus on spatial location of crime Social Disorganization Theory: poverty, racial and ethnic heterogeneity, and residential mobility Routine Activity Theory: motivated offenders, attractive targets/opportunities, and an absence of capable guardianship against crime Urban Design Theories: focus on site-specific and situational features of a place Defensible Space Theory: Oscar Newman territoriality, natural surveillance (Bases for CPTED and Secured by Design) Prospect/Refuge Theory: Appleton - physical and visual access and opportunity for escape Space Syntax Theory: Hillier and Hanson configurational accessibility

6 Study Objectives Explore the relationship of crime event locations and spatial configuration in Cary, NC Focus on property crimes: Larceny Motor Vehicle Theft Burglary Robbery Compare: 1994 ( ) 2002 ( )

7 Study Area Durham Chapel Hill RTP Cary Raleigh

8 Data Methodology

9 Data Crime Incidents and Total crime 16,165 16,827 incidents Geocoded 13,689 15,143 (85%) (90%) Robbery Burglary 5,879 5,606 Larceny (43%) (37%) Auto theft

10 Crime Incidents Robbery, Burglary, Larceny, Auto theft : 5,879 incidents : 5,606 incidents Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Robbery

11 Data Census Data 1990 & 2000 Population Density Youth Concentration Percent children under 12 Percent children Level of Education Percent high school graduates Percent college graduates Percent Owner Occupied HU Percent Single Parents Racial Composition Percent African-American Social Heterogeneity Ethnic Composition Percent Hispanics

12 Data Census Data Percent Hispanics 2000

13 Data Census Data Percent Children Age

14 Data Parcel Level Data Land Use Building Value Street Hierarchy Building Height Floor/Area Ratio

15 Data Space Syntax Global Accessibility Local Accessibility Connectivity Control Axial Line Length

16 Methodology Space Syntax Theory and Methodology

17 Logic of Space Syntax Configurational Accessibility - Permeability Non-metric and non-geometric configurational properties of space The ease of physical movement through a district The number of alternative routes running through a district

18 Logic of Space Syntax Example 1: A BUILDING The spatial configuration of the building in the upper figure privileges space A for through movement

19 Logic of Space Syntax Example 2: URBAN STRUCTURE Streets are considered individual spaces, and are identified by axial lines

20 Space Syntax Methodology Graph of Street s Relative Integration Level 2 Level 1 Level 0 1 INTEGRATION Measures how a street in a city is configurationally accessible with respect to all other streets in the city Permeability graph Level 2 Level 1 Level 0

21 29 1 Pathway 29 Pathway 1 Source: David Seamon

22 Space Syntax Methodology Quantitative description and measurement of urban space Variables INTEGRATION (could be global or local) Global Integration measures how a street in a city is configurationally accessible with respect to all other streets in the city High integration value for a street in a city indicates that it is: configurationally more accessible, more privileged for through movement than other streets in the city CONNECTIVITY The number of all lines that are directly connected to a line CONTROL The level of control that a space has on its neighbors for permeability to them

23 Cary Configurational Accessibility 1989

24 Cary Configurational Accessibility 1994

25 Cary Configurational Accessibility 2002

26 GIS Database Data Integration: ArcGIS 9.1 Unit of Analysis: Land Parcel Total: 34,565 parcels (2002) Crime incident data Census data Space Syntax data Parcel level data Parcels by Global Integration

27 GIS Database Parcels by Census Data

28 Analysis and Findings: Correlations among Space Syntax variables Connectivity Control Local Integration Global Integration Axial line length (feet) Connectivity 1 Control Local Integration Global Integration Axial line length (feet) N=34,565. All correlations are significant within a 99.9% confidence level

29 Analysis and Findings: Correlations of Space Syntax variables with Crime Count Connectivity Control Local Integration Global Integration Axial line length (feet) Log Crime Count All correlations are significant within a 99.9% confidence level N=34,

30 Regression on Crime Count Global Integration Connectivity or Connectivity_rate Axial Line length (feet) Space Syntax Variables St. Coefficients.112*** ns.160*** Space Syntax and Land Use Variables St. Coefficients Space Syntax, Land Use, Socioemographic and Distance to Magnets St. Coefficients R *** = p< ** = p< * = p< 0.050

31 Regression on Crime Count Space Syntax Variables Space Syntax and Land Use Variables Space Syntax, Land Use, Socioemographic and Distance to Magnets St. Coefficients St. Coefficients St. Coefficients Global Integration.112***.068*** Connectivity or Connectivity_rate ns -.024*** Axial Line length (feet).160***.075*** Single family residential -.072*** Magnet1 Magnet2.242***.279*** Magnet1 Club Theatre Hotel/Motel Garage Restaurant Magnet2 Retail R *** = p< ** = p< * = p< 0.050

32 Regression on Crime Count Space Syntax Variables Space Syntax and Land Use Variables Space Syntax, Land Use, Socioemographic and Distance to Magnets St. Coefficients St. Coefficients St. Coefficients Global Integration.112***.068***.028*** Connectivity or Connectivity_rate ns -.024*** -.026*** Axial Line length (feet).160***.075***.051*** Single family residential -.072*** -.038*** Magnet1 Magnet2 Log Distance to Magnet1 Log distance to Magnet2 Population per acre.242***.279***.160***.216*** -.139*** -.093*** -.020** Magnet1 Club Theatre Hotel/Motel Garage Restaurant Percent years age Percent high school gr..047***.018* Magnet2 Retail Percent owner occupied -.036*** Percent African American Percent Hispanics R *.024***.219 *** = p< ** = p< * = p< 0.050

33 Effect of Global Integration on Crime Count (Logged) by Magnet 1 Land Uses Magnate Parcel Not a Magnate Parcel Logged # Crimes sd 0 Values of Global Integration +1sd Magnet1 Club Theatre Hotel/Motel Garage Restaurant

34 Connectivity Rate Effects on Crime Count (Logged) by Retail Land Uses Commercial Land Parcels Not Commercial Land Parcels Logged Crime Count sd 0 Connectivity Rate +1 sd

35 Conclusions Main Findings w/o Interactions Global Integration is positively associated with crime (Contrary to Hillier s hypothesis re: eyes on the street deterring crime) Connectivity, however, is negatively associated with crime (yet the effect is small) Commercial Land Uses have strongest effect on crime counts: predict crime about as well as the full model Frequency of Crime decays with distance to commercial land uses

36 Conclusions Main Findings of Models with Interactions Global Integration (+) interacts with Magnet 1 Land uses (+) synergistically to produce even higher levels of crime (+) Magnet1: Club, Theatre, Hotel/Motel, Garage, Restaurant Connectivity (-) interacts with Retail Land uses (+) to buffer the latter s effect and further reduce crime (-)