16 th Annual Invasive Species Workshop

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1 16 th Annual Invasive Species Workshop Predicting rapid expansion: What are the biological characteristics of Alaska s most invasive plant species? Flagstad, Lindsey A. 1, Justin R. Fulkerson 1, Casey Greenstein 1, Megumi Aisu 1, Matthew L. Carlson 1,2 1 Alaska Natural Heritage Program at the Alaska Center for Conservation Science 2 Biological Sciences Department, University of Alaska Anchorage, 3211 Providence Dr., Anchorage, AK The capacity to predict the speed and spatial extent of invasion of a species can greatly promote the effective management of any recent or anticipated introduction. To identify the biological characteristics correlated to the colonization potential of plant species in Alaska, intrinsic population growth rates were calculated for more than 300 plant species documented within, and considered nonnative to, the state. Intrinsic growth rate were calculated for each species using residence time and current population size. For more than half of the non-native species, records housed in the Alaska Exotic Plant Clearinghouse (AKEPIC) statewide weed database represent the earliest record of collection; collection information was gleaned from herbaria specimens, regional floras, databased records and literature sources for the remaining species. A hexagon-binning approach applied to the geospatial occurrence data in AKEPIC was used to indicate the current population size of each species. Multivariate ordination was used to identify biological characteristics of species that best indicate intrinsic population growth. Intrinsic growth rates were compared to invasiveness ranking system values to explore the relationship between rate of spread and ecological impacts. This work provides a more complete picture of Alaska s invasion history and may promote the effective mitigation of current and future invasive plant problems to this relatively pristine landscape.

2 PREDICTING RAPID EXPANSION What are the biological characteristics of Alaska s most invasive plant species? Lindsey Flagstad, Matt Carlson and Justin Fulkerson Alaska Invasive Species Conference Juneau 2015

3 WE HAVE NO CRYSTAL BALL The ability to predict the expansion of a species from known characteristics promotes effective management

4 METHODS Calculated intrinsic growth rate ln / Records of first collection for the 339 species considered non-native to, and documented as occurring in Alaska Quantified current presence from AKEPIC records using a hexagon binning approach Compared this intrinsic growth rate to biological characteristics of the species

5 PATTERNS OF INTRODUCTION globalization/awareness Number of Non-Native Species agriculture exploration infrastructure/survey effort

6 TOP TEN Prunus virginiana chokecherry Campanula rapunculoides rampion bellflower Sagina procumbens birdeye pearlwort Mycelis muralis wall-lettuce Hieracium caespitosum meadow hawkweed Hieracium murorum wall hawkweed Centaurea montana perennial cornflower Falliopia xbohemica Bohemian knotweed Alchemilla mollis lady's mantle

7 BOTTOM TEN Sinapis arvensis Phalaris canariensis Papaver rhoeas Amaranthus retroflexus Sisymbrium altissimum Plantago lanceolata Neslia paniculata Atriplex patula Agropyron cristatum Silene vulgaris charlock mustard annual canarygrass corn poppy redroot amaranth tall tumblemustard narrowleaf plantain ballmustard spear saltbush crested wheatgrass bladder campion

8 PRESENCE BY HEXAGON BINNING Why bin? Why hexagons?

9 WHY MULTIVARIATE ORDINATION? Because the real world is messy! Multiple, interdependent variables Ordination allows us to visualize sample units in three dimensional space e.g. food preferences lactose meat-eaters omnivores vegetarians lactose-intolerants gluten-free, locavore, vegan protein

10 PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS

11 EXPLANATORY VARIABLES widespread weaklings cause for concern homebodies

12 HABITAT PREFERENCE Upland Facultative Upland Facultative Facultative Wetland Obligate Obligate Facultative Wetland Intrinsic growth rate correlated to wetland specialization?

13 WEED TYPE Contaminant Agricultural Contaminant Cultivated Garden Garden Agricultural Cultivated Intrinsic growth rate not strongly associated with cultivated or agricultural types?

14 LIFE CYCLE Annual Perennial Biennial Perennial Intrinsic growth rate not promoted by perennial life cycle?

15 FAMILY Scrophulariaceae Rosaceae Lamiaceae Brassicaceae Intrinsic growth rate promoted by family membership?

16 GROWTH HABIT Forb Graminoid Shrub Tree Tree Graminoid Shrub Intrinsic growth rate promoted by woodiness?

17 TAKE HOME MESSAGES So, what are the (potential) characteristics of our most rapidly expanding non-native species? Not agricultural species Not characterized by a perennial life cycle membership to the Rosaceae family woodiness unaccounted for variables What is invasiveness? invasiveness = expansion + impact

18 IDEAS? QUESTIONS?

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