216 UCB. Earth system. variability. Sharon Cecilia 7:30 AM

Transcription

1 Polar Research Board & Ocean Studies Board ANTARCTIC SEA ICE VARIABILITY AND TRENDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN CLIMATE SYSTEM January 11 12, 2016 University of Colorado Boulder CIRES Auditorium Roomm UCB Boulder, CO In contrast to shrinking sea ice in the Arctic, sea ice in the oceans surrounding Antarctica has been more extensive on average in recent years than at any other time in the satellite observed record. There is not a consensus on the causes of Antarctic sea ice trends or regional variability, and observed patterns are not well represented in Earth system models. The goals of this workshop include: to examine the observational record of Antarctic sea ice variability; to further understanding of the processes governing the decadal scale changes and recent surge in Antarctic sea ice extent; to assess projections of future Antarctic sea ice trends; and to identify ways to improve understanding and modeling of recent and future Antarctic sea ice variability. A summary report will be written based on the workshop s presentations and discussions. This report will not include consensus conclusions or recommendations, but will contain a record of key points emerging from the workshop. MONDAY JANUARY 11, 2016 ****Shuttle from Hotel**** 7:30 AM 7:45 A.M.. Breakfast 8:15 A.M.. Welcome, introductions and purpose of the workshop Julienne Stroeve SESSION 1 The Big Picture: Patterns and Drivers of Antarctic Sea Ice Variability 8:45 A.M.. BIG PICTURE TALKS Sharon Stammerjohn, University of Colorado, Boulder Cecilia Bitz, University of Washington Will Hobbs, University of Tasmania 10:05 A.M. Discussion Moderator: Susan Solomon 10:35 A.M. Break 5000 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC Phone Fax

2 SESSION 2 The Observational Record: Insights and Gaps What does the observational record of Antarctic sea ice extent tell us about sea ice variability and recent trends? How do other observations inform our understanding? What are the key uncertainties in the observational record? What additional observations are critical for improving our understanding of sea ice and its role in the coupled system? 10:50 A.M. OBSERVATIONS PANEL Moderator: Ted Maksym Rob Massom, Australian Antarctic Division Nathan Kurtz, NASA GSFC Michael Meredith, British Antarctic Survey David Bromwich, Ohio State University Sarah Das, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute 11:35 A.M. Opportunity for participants to present 2 minute speed talks related to observations 1 11:50 A.M. Discussion 12:20 P.M. Working lunch 1:00 P.M. Breakout groups Rapporteur: Steve Ackley Leader: Julienne Stroeve Rapporteur: Ron Kwok Leader: Marika Holland Rapporteur: Sharon Stammerjohn Leader: Xiaojun Yuan Rapporteur: Mike Meredith 1:50 P.M. Break (Group leaders, note takers and rapporteurs coordinate) 2:10 P.M. Report back from breakout group discussions 3:00 P.M. Break 1 In addition to scheduled talks by panelists, workshop attendees will have an opportunity to present 2 minute speed talks to convey their recent findings or key thoughts to address sessions organizing questions. Attendees will also participate in panel and break out group discussions. 2

3 SESSION 3 Sea Ice Variability in Earth System Models What insights do modeling studies offer regarding the drivers of Antarctic sea ice variability and recent trends? What are the current discrepancies between models and observations, and what are possible reasons for such differences? What do models portend about the future of sea ice in Antarctica? What is needed to improve model representation of sea ice variability? 3:15 P.M. MODELING PANEL Moderator: Marika Holland Clara Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research Lorenzo Polvani, Columbia University John Fyfe, Environment Canada Hughes Goosse, Université de Louvain 3:55 P.M. Opportunity for participants to present 2 minute speed talks related to modeling 4:10 P.M. Discussion 4:40 P.M. Breakout groups Rapporteur: Elizabeth Hunke Leader: Ted Maksym Rapporteur: Alexander Haumann Leader: Marilyn Raphael Rapporteur: Kyle Armour Leader: David Holland Rapporteur: David Schneider (Rapporteurs prepare remarks with note takers after meeting adjourns on Monday or on Tuesday morning before the workshop begins.) 5:30 P.M. Adjourn and Reception **Shuttle will be available to take participants back to the hotel.** 3

4 8:00 A.M Breakfast TUESDAY, JANUARY 12, 2016 ****Shuttle from Hotel**** 7:45 AM 8:30 A.M. Recap of day 1 and plan for day 2 Julienne Stroeve 8:45 A.M. Report back from Session 3 breakout groups SESSION 4 Process and Attribution Studies of the Coupled System What is the contribution of tropical ocean atmosphere variability to Antarctic sea ice variability and trends? How does the Southern Ocean and ice shelf melt influence sea ice? What is the role of atmospheric phenomena such as the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL)? What is the role of anthropogenic forcing (GHG, ozone)? What is the role of natural climate variability? What are the key gaps in our understanding of recent sea ice change, and what are the key challenges and opportunities for addressing these gaps? 9:35 A.M. TROPICAL POLAR CONNECTIONS Moderator: Xiaojun Yuan Graham Simpkins, University of California, Irvine Xichen Li, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego David Schneider, National Center for Atmospheric Research 10:05 A.M. Discussion 10:25 A.M. OCEAN SEA ICE AND OCEAN SHELF ICE SEA ICE INTERACTIONS Moderator: David Holland Doug Martinson, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory David Ferreira, University of Reading Kyle Armour, University of Washington 10:55 A.M. Discussion 11:15 A.M. Break 11:30 A.M. ATMOSPHERE SEA ICE INTERACTIONS AND ANTHROPOGENIC FORCING Moderator: Marilyn Raphael Ryan Fogt, Ohio University Alexander Haumann, ETH Zurich Paul Holland, British Antarctic Survey 12:00 P.M. Opportunity for participants to present 2 minute speed talks on processes and attribution 12:15 P.M. Discussion 4

5 12:45 P.M. Working Lunch 1:30 P.M. Breakout groups Rapporteur: Will Hobbs Leader: Julienne Stroeve Rapporteur: Cecilia Bitz Leader: Marika Holland Rapporteur: Ryan Walker Leader: Xiaojun Yuan Rapporteur: David Bromwich 2:20 P.M. Break (Time for group leaders, note takers and rapporteurs to coordinate) 2:40 P.M Report back from breakout group discussions 3:30 P.M. Wrap up and final remarks Julienne Stroeve 3:45 P.M. Open workshop adjourns **Shuttle will be available to take participants back to the hotel.** 5