FAMOS for YOPP Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) for Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

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1 FAMOS for YOPP Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) for Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Andrey Proshutinsky (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) and research FAMOS team YOPP-Summit July 2015 WMO, Geneva, Switzerland

2 The Forum for Arctic Ocean Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) is an international effort to focus on enhancing collaboration and coordination among arctic marine and sea ice modelers, theoreticians and observationalists based on a set of activities starting from generating hypotheses, to planning research including both observations and modeling, and to finalizing analyses synthesizing major results from the field studies and coordinated numerical experiments. FAMOS project is motivated by and a logical continuation of more than 10- years of AOMIP (Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, work demonstrating that the arctic marine science community needs an informal forum to discuss, coordinate, plan and synthesize scientific activities

3 Illustration of synthesis and integration activities employing a modeling approach. Figure explains this philosophy, where synthesis and integration among basic disciplines allow scientists to formulate a basic model, feed this model with initial and boundary conditions, and force it by integrating observational data. We improve models by employing the latest parameterizations of processes, compare models and their outputs, calibrate models and validate their results, and finally obtain advanced models to determine the most probable solutions with reduced uncertainties.

4 USA, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden, China, Korea, Japan, Russia, Australia, New Zealand, Italy, Finland, Poland, Denmark

5 FAMOS objectives supporting YOPP goals The FAMOS project objectives are: Reduce uncertainties in model predictions (model validation/improvements via coordinated experiments and studies; reanalysis methods and products for correct initial and boundary conditions; design and implementation of the oceanic and sea ice remote and in situ observing systems); Support synthesis across the suite of Arctic models and observatories and/or observational projects and systems; Conduct collaboration with other similar projects focused on other aspects of arctic/global climate (atmospheric, terrestrial, etc) with a special focus on model and data improvements and analysis; Disseminate findings of FAMOS effort to broader communities and involve the larger community in discussions, coordinated modeling and observational field experiments;

6 Current and future FAMOS YOPP collaboration We have started working with YOPP community in At this time our collaboration is limited by participation in workshops. But we hope that in the future we will be able to conduct a set of concrete joint studies. For example in , six scientific FAMOS teams were organized to focus on coordinated high-resolution modeling studies and observations of: Atlantic water circulation in the Arctic Ocean; Freshwater changes in the Arctic Ocean; Sea ice drift, ice ridging, and changing of ice-related processes; Investigation and modeling of landfast generation and break-up; Ecosystem modeling ; Freshwater fluxes from Greenland and their influence on climate.

7 Based on these studies FAMOS is preparing now about 30 papers for JGR special section: Call for Papers for Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observing Synthesis (FAMOS): results and synthesis of coordinated experiments Submission acceptance begins: 1 April 2015 Submission deadline: 1 August 2015 Manuscripts are invited for a special section of JGR-Oceans on the Forum for Arctic Ocean Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS). The special section presents a set of project results obtained based on international coordinated observational and numerical experiments associated with: Investigation of Pacific and Atlantic water circulation; Studies of the processes of freshwater and heat accumulation in the Arctic Ocean and pathways of freshwater from sources toward the North Atlantic; Fate of the Arctic sea ice and methods of sea ice modeling and forecasting; Ecosystem modeling including both model development and Arctic ecosystem change studies; Investigation of Greenland s ice melting role in the sea level rise and decadal climate variability.

8 FAMOS recent findings: Arctic Ocean and sea ice change rapidly and not only toward sea ice reduction. Simple example of this is shown in right panel (from R. Kwok s paper published one month ago) based on Cryosat- 2 data. In 2014, sea ice thickness increased significantly and in average was 34 cm greater than in So this is important for a) planning of expeditions, it is important to take this into account; b) Models have to be able to reproduce these changes.

9 Some of recent FAMOS findings: It is clear that models have to have high resolution; But also they have to have correct initial conditions for ocean (instead of T&S data taken from 1970s climatology); Have to take into account landfast ice and it changes in time; Ocean tide and inertial motions play an important role in sea ice dynamics and deformations and have to be included in the models Fresh water flux from Greenland is important and has to be included in the models for correct seasonal and longer predictions.

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12 4 th FAMOS meeting: 3-6 November 2015, Cape Cod 1-day School: November 3rd. Lectures: Humfrey Melling: Canadian Arctic Archipelago Strait Bob Pickart: Chukchi Se Igor Polyakov: Laptev Sea Lars Smedsrud: Barents Sea Phyllis Stabeno: Bering Sea Bruno Tremblay: Outreach lecture on modeling Mary-Louise Timmermans: Outreach demo on Taylor columns Mathilda Jutras: Outreach demo on snow ice formation

13 FAMOS meeting : November 4-6th Major meeting goals are to report about 3 years of FAMOS work and accomplishments and major results and formulation of scientific questions and directions for continuation of FAMOS activities in Note that on day 3, November 6 th we will have a session Year of Polar Prediction with key presentations lead by Thomas Jung (AWI) 4 th FAMOS meeting: 3-6 November 2015, Cape Cod