Intercomparison of the Arctic sea ice cover in global ocean-sea ice reanalyses
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1 Intercomparison of the Arctic sea ice cover in global ocean-sea ice reanalyses Matthieu Chevallier (CNRM, Météo France/CNRS) Greg Smith, Frédéric Dupont, Jean-François Lemieux (ECC Canada), Gilles Garric (Mercator Océan), Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF), The ORA-IP and PORA-IP teams (>30 people). 5th International Conference on Reanalyses, November 2017, Rome, Italy
2 Motivation Sea ice concentration (SIC) well-observed since 1979 (SMMR, SSM/I, SSMIS) Can be assimilated Sparse observations of sea ice thickness from several sources ; altimetry since early 2000s. Not routinely assimilated Sea ice thickness is a key climate variable. Sea ice thickness is key for sea ice predictions at S2S, seasonal and decadal time scales. We need reanalyses for sea ice thickness (+other variables)!
3 Motivation PIOMAS A regional Arctic model with SIC nudging Not observations Not thickness observations assimilated... How do other reanalyses compare to PIOMAS?
4 Overview Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (GODAE OceanView/CLIVAR-GSOP ; Balmaseda et al., 2014) 11 global ocean-sea ice reanalyses (with a sea ice model ) : Ocean-sea ice models driven by prescribed atmosphere 2/11 using coupled atmosphere-ocean models 7/11 assimilate sea ice concentration no sea ice thickness DA!!! Variables considered : Concentration (obs : NSIDC + others) Thickness (obs : ICESAT) Velocity : (obs : NSIDC, buoys) All data available : ftp.icdc.zmaw.de/ora_ip/
5 Sea ice concentration
6 Sea ice concentration Sea ice concentration September 2007 SST constraints Atmospheric forcing Sea ice DA improves
7 Sea ice concentration Sea ice concentration March 2007 SIC>90 % Free models : too high SIC With DA : reflect differences in obs data sets Impact on air-sea fluxes
8 Sea ice thickness Sea ice thickness (m) Difference wrt ICESAT March
9 Sea ice thickness Sea ice thickness (m) Difference wrt ICESAT March Too thin ice north of Canada Too thick ice in the Beaufort sea Too thin ice in Atlantic sector Diff. reflects biases of free models Sea ice DA does not improve Some as good as PIOMAS
10 Variability / trends No robust estimate of sea ice volume trend from ORA-IP ensemble PIOMAS is one of them... Courtesy Andrea Storto
11 Sea ice velocity Sea ice drift primarily driven by winds
12 Sea ice velocity Sea ice drift primarily driven by winds Arctic mean sea ice velocity (annual mean) Year-to-year variability well simulated Most ORA biased high (ice drifts too fast) Spread model tuning parameters
13 Conclusions First systematic intercomparison of sea ice in global reanalyses Focus on the Arctic Ocean Consistencies : Sea ice edge Sea ice extent variability and trends Variability of sea ice dynamics, exports Atmosphere forcing Constraints/DA Inconsistencies : Sea ice concentration in the pack (lead fraction) Sea ice thickness distribution Model physics Sea ice volume variability and trends DA Sea ice velocity modulus Chevallier, M. and co-authors, 2017, Climate Dynamics, SI Ocean Reanalyses
14 Conclusions There are developments ongoing More ORA assimilate SIC (+more do that better than before) Sea ice models are better Assimilation of sea ice thickness data (Poster D. Peterson) Impact of the atmo. forcing + ens approach (Poster G. Garric)
15 Conclusions There are developments ongoing More ORA assimilate SIC (+more do that better than before) Sea ice models are better Assimilation of sea ice thickness data (Poster D. Peterson) Impact of the atmo. forcing + ens approach (Poster G. Garric) ORA intercomparison is an ongoing activity Polar ORA-IP under the COST EOS Action (Posters D. Iovino and A. Alvera-Azcarate) same results for the Southern Ocean ORA-IP to be continued Polar RA will benefit from Year Of Polar Prediction ( )
16 Thank you! Matthieu Chevallier (CNRM, Météo 5th International Conference on Reanalyses, November 2017, Rome, Italy
17 Southern Ocean
18 Southern Ocean
19 Sea ice thickness Mean sea ice thickness (m) Difference wrt ICESAT Average March Too thin ice north of Canada Too thick ice in the Beaufort sea Too thin ice in Atlantic sector Thick Spot in Beaufort sea : G2V1 G2V3: no-da vs DA ERAN ERAL: DA techniques?
20 Sea ice volume Arctic sea ice volume (ICESat domain) Comparison with ICESat and CryoSAT
21 Sea ice velocity Impact on the global ocean? Ice export through Fram Strait (annual mean) Possibly too much solid freshwater transport into the Atlantic Ocean in some ORAs
22
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