Precipitation, snow accumulation and sea ice thickness over the Arctic Ocean
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1 Precipitation, snow accumulation and sea ice thickness over the Arctic Ocean Alek Petty, Linette Boisvert, Melinda Webster, Thorsten Markus, Nathan Kurtz, Jeremy Harbeck / alek.a.petty@nasa.gov 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 1
2 Arctic Sea Ice Antarctic Sea Ice Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet
3 Arctic sea ice cover in decline 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 3
4 Arctic sea ice thickness in decline 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 4
5 Arctic sea ice thickness in decline Changes the momentum transfer through the ice a spin-up of the Arctic Ocean? Changes light transmission through the ice phytoplankton blooms/shifting ecosystems? Changes the Arctic freshwater budgets sea ice melt becoming significant? 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 5
6 Satellites provide basin-scale measurements of sea ice freeboard 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 6
7 Measuring sea ice thickness from space: 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 7
8 Sea ice community still often using an old snow depth climatology! From [Warren et al., 1999] 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 8
9 We need a better snow depth product for sea ice thickness calculations! 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 9
10 We need a better snow depth product for sea ice thickness calculations! Also need to better understand the Arctic freshwater cycle! 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 10
11 The Arctic freshwater budget From [Serreze et al., 2006] 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 11
12 The Arctic freshwater budget 4900 km km km km km km km km km km 3 From [Serreze et al., 2006] 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 12
13 The Arctic freshwater budget 4900 km km km km km km km km km km 3 From [Serreze et al., 2006] 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 13
14 How much precipitation is there over the Arctic Ocean? 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 14
15 Total Arctic precip across 8 reanalyses From [Boisvert et al., 2018, in prep] 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 15
16 Annual Arctic precipitation across 8 reanalyses 5760 km km km 3 From [Boisvert et al., 2018, in prep] 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 16
17 Days of Arctic precipitation across 8 reanalyses From [Boisvert et al., 2018, in prep] 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 17
18 Rain and snowfall in the Arctic From [Boisvert et al., 2018, in prep] 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 18
19 Comparison of precip events with ) snow buoy data Legend JRA-55 ERA-Interim NCEP R1 NCEP R2 ASR CFSR MERRA MERRA2 + Snow Event + Temp. > 0 o C Buoy mm/day b) 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 19
20 A future rain dominated Arctic? Present day: Snowfall:Total Precip Fraction of rainfall to total precip from the 37 CMIP5 models. [Bintanja and Andrey, 2017, Nature Clim Change] 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 20
21 A future rain dominated Arctic? Present day: Future: Snowfall:Total Precip Fraction of rainfall to total precip from the 37 CMIP5 models. Snowfall expected to decrease, rainfall expected to increase. [Bintanja and Andrey, 2017, Nature Clim Change] 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 21
22 A future rain dominated Arctic? Present day: Snowfall:Total Precip Future: [Bintanja and Andrey, 2017, Nature Clim Change] 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 22
23 Moving from precip to accumulation and snow depth 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 23
24 The NASA Eulerian Snow on Sea Ice Model (NESOSIM) [Petty et al., in prep] 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 24
25 NESOSIM results Forced by ERA-Interim snowfall/winds, Bootstrap ice concentrakon, NSIDC drio. 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 25
26 Calibrations with Soviet Station data 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 26
27 Calibrations with Soviet Station data 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 27
28 NESOSIM forced by ERA-I 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 28
29 NESOSIM forced by different reanalyses 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 29
30 NESOSIM forced by different ice drifts 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 30
31 Seasonal snow contributions Mean snow depth across several reanalysis-forced NESOSIM simulations. Blue bars show 1 s.d. of the model/reanalysis spread. 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 31
32 Seasonal snow contributions 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 32
33 Validate with NASA s Operation IceBridge Suite of sensors to measure both land and sea ice Conical scanning laser altimeter (ATM) and snow radar. 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 33
34 Validate with NASA s Operation IceBridge 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 34
35 Moving from snow depth to sea ice thickness 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 35
36 Already improving CryoSat-2 thickness estimates Winter mean ( ) CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness using Warren snow depth climatology 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 36
37 Already improving CryoSat-2 thickness estimates 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 37
38 Looking ahead to NASA s ICESat-2 mission Scheduled for launch later this year! 01/17/2018 Laser altimeter, photon counter. Three pairs of beams, footprint of ~15 m. Will provide measurements of sea ice freeboard. SKll need to think about snow depth! 613 Seminar Alek Pe1y 38
39 Arctic Sea Ice Antarctic Sea Ice Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet
40 Antarctic sea ice in decline? 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 40
41 Antarctic sea ice thickness? 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 41
42 Importance of Antarctic sea ice Impacts shelf water formakon brine rejeckon and overturning Maybe important for ice shelf melt? - Ocean warming, local atmosphere conditions Less is known about AntarcKc sea ice thickness! 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 42
43 Summary Need snow depth/density on sea ice to estimate sea ice thickness. Developed a new snow on sea ice model. Calibrated against Soviet Station data, captures well the seasonal snow depth/density cycle. Reanalysis data needed, but show large differences. 01/17/ Seminar Alek Pe1y 43
44 Future work Produce updated CryoSat-2/ICESat thickness eskmates Improve model physics Run NESOSIM in the Southern Ocean Get ready for ICESat-2 07/31/2017 US CLIVAR Alek Pe1y 44
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