Polar Prediction Workshop 2017 & 2nd Sea Ice MlP Meeting
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1 Polar Prediction Workshop 2017 & 2nd Sea Ice MlP Meeting March 2017 Deutsches Schiffahrtsmuseum, Bremerhaven, Germany SIMIP Monday 27 March 09:30-13:00 Registration Alfred Wegener Lecture :30-11:00 Coffee and Tea 11:00-12:00 Alfred Wegener Lecture A Decade of Sea Ice Prediction 12:00-13:00 Reception and lunch break Cecilia Bitz Welcome & Introductory Session (chair: Helge Goessling) 13:00-13:15 Welcome from PCPI, PPP, SIPN, CliC/SIMIP Workshop Organizers 13:15-13:20 Local arrangements Kirstin Werner 13:20-13:40 Preparing for the Sea Ice Outlook Season 2017 Julienne Stroeve 13:40-14:00 The Year of Polar Prediction Thomas Jung Session I - Observations (chair: Dirk Notz) 14:00-14:30 Recent developments in satellite data sets for model initialisation 14:30-14:45 Health break & poster setup 14:45-16:00 5 talks 15 (10 +5 ) each Leif Toudal Pedersen How to make the best use of L-band satellite radiometry for sea ice prediction Lars Kaleschke Using CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness distribution to constrain the CICE sea ice model David Schroeder
2 An East Antarctic observatory for marine cryosphere and near-surface atmosphere The Oliktok Point Observatory: Providing New Perspectives on the Arctic Atmosphere Quantification of the biases and error in the Polar Pathfinder dataset: towards a new optimally interpolated sea ice drift dataset Petra Heil / Jan Lieser Gijs de Boer Bruno Tremblay 16:00-16:30 Coffee break (& posters) Session II Forecasting (chair: Neven Fučkar) 16:30-17:30 4 talks 15 (10 +5 ) each The Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment Short Term Sea Ice Forecasts Improvements in probablistic seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales Helge Goessling Axel Schweiger Arlan Dirkson Mitch Bushuk 17:30-18:00 Health break (& posters) 18:00-19:00 Guided Tour German Shipping Museum (Deutsches Schiffahrtsmuseum, ca 1 /participant) Tuesday 28 March Session III Statistical Forecasting (chair: Neven Fučkar) 09:00-09:30 2 talks 15 (10 +5 ) each Skillful seasonal sea ice forecasts using satellite derived ice-ocean observations: Results for September Arctic sea ice and beyond Data-adaptive Harmonic Decomposition and Realtime Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Session IV Data Assimilation (chair: François Massonnet) Alek Petty Dmitri Kondrashov 09:30-10:00 Assimilation of sea ice within the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model Madlen Kimmritz 10:00-10:15 1 talk 15 (10 +5 ) Simultaneous assimilation of CryoSat-2 and SMOS sea ice thickness data with a local SEIK filter into a regional ice-ocean coupled model improves overall model performance Qinghua Yang / Longjiang Mu 10:15-10:25 Group photo 10:25-11:00 Coffee break (& posters) 11:00-11:30 2 talks 15 (10 +5 ) each Improving Arctic Sea Ice Prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System by Assimilating Satellitederived Sea Ice Concentration and Thickness Impact of initialising sea ice using CryoSat2 thickness within the Met Office's coupled seasonal prediction system. Jiping Liu Ed Blockley
3 Session V New Models (chair: Cecilia Bitz) 11:30-12:00 2 talks 15 (10 +5 ) each Towards sea ice forecasting in the Kara Sea: A regional setup for NEMO-LIM3 A coupled ROMS-CICE model for the Arctic Andrea Gierisch Keguang Wang 12:00-13:15 Lunch break 13:15-13:45 2 talks 15 (10 +5 ) each New Lagrangian sea-ice model nextsim as a forecast model Atmospheric dynamics and predictability of sea ice Einar Örn Ólason Steven Cavallo Session VI Reanalyses and Atmospheric Dynamics (chair: Cecilia Bitz) 13:45-14:15 Sea ice reanalyses: how useful are they and can we trust them? François Massonnet 14:15-14:45 2 talks 15 (10 +5 ) each Polar lows in high-resolution atmospheric reanalyses Medium-range predictability of an extreme Arctic cyclone in August :45-15:15 Coffee break (& posters) Hélène Marie Emilie Bresson Akio Yamagami Session VII Predictability Limits (chair: Alexandra Jahn) 15:15-15:45 2 talks 15 (10 +5 ) each Evaluating Antarctic sea ice predictability at seasonal to interannual timescales in global climate models Towards seasonal Arctic sea route predictions Sylvain Marchi Jonny Day Session VIII Services (chair: Alexandra Jahn) 15:45-16:15 2 talks 15 (10 +5 ) each On the strategy of sea-ice service delivery - An Australian Antarctic perspective A review of the Alaska Sea Ice Program Jan Lieser Eugene Petrescu Session IX Long-term Variability and Change (chair: Alexandra Jahn) 16:15-16:30 1 talk 15 (10 +5 ) Quantifying drivers of internal sea-ice variability using feedback locking Dirk Olonscheck Poster Session 16:30-17:00 1 slide / 1 poster teaser presentations 17:00-19:00 Poster session (with drinks & light food, sponsored by AWI)
4 Wednesday 29 March Oral Session IX Long-term Variability and Change (continued) (chair: Alek Petty) 09:00-09:30 Keynote When is all the sea ice gone? Dirk Notz 09:30-10:30 4 talks 15 (10 +5 ) each Predictability of Arctic sea ice under different emission scenarios Sea ice evolution in the Pacific Arctic by selected CMIP5 models: the present and the future Drivers of past and future Arctic Ocean warming in CMIP5 models Faster Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to Volcanoes 10:30-11:00 Coffee break (& posters) Alexandra Jahn Muyin Wang Clara Burgard Erica Rosenblum Discussion and Wrap-up (chair: Cecilia Bitz) 11:00-11:30 Recommendations for SIO :30-12:15 Discussion (details to be determined) 12:15-12:30 Wrap-up and closing PPW2017 Workshop Organizers 12:30-13:30 Lunch break (Catered lunch, sponsored by CliC) Sea Ice MIP Session I: How to evaluate sea-ice models (challenges and new opportunities) 13:30-13:45 Welcome, overview of workshop goals Alexandra Jahn & Dirk Notz 13:45-15:00 Setting the scene (5 minute talks) Internal variability Dirk Olonscheck Observational uncertainty Lars Kaleschke Inconsistent variable definitions Abigail Ahlert Model selection/model weighting Julienne Stroeve Recent model developments Elizabeth Hunke (remote) Recent observational developments in situ Recent observational developments remote sensing Christian Haas Leif Toudal Pedersen Model tuning Thorsten Mauritsen (remote) 15:00-15:30 Coffee Break 15:30-16:45 Breakout groups on challenges and opportunities 16:45-17:30 Plenum: summary of breakout groups 19:30-open No-host Villa Seebeck
5 Thursday 30 March Sea Ice MIP Session II: Concrete ways forward 09:00-10:30 Plenum: planned experiments and useful joint studies within SIMIP/ breakout groups 10:30-11:00 Coffee Break 11:00-12:00 Discussion of possible joint paper/workshop report, close List of Acronyms AWI CLIC PCPI PPP PPW SIMIP SIO SIPN WCRP WMO WWRP YOPP Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Climate and Cryosphere Polar Climate Predictability Initiative Polar Prediction Project Polar Prediction Workshop Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project Sea Ice Outlook Sea Ice Prediction Network World Climate Research Programme World Meteorological Organization World Weather Research Programme Year of Polar Prediction
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