Early Warning System and Role of IMD. Manmohan Singh Meteorological Centre Shimla

Transcription

1 Early Warning System and Role of IMD Manmohan Singh Meteorological Centre Shimla

2 India a land with a unique climatic regime Two monsoon seasons (southwest & northeast monsoons) Two cyclone seasons (pre & post monsoon cyclone seasons) Hot weather season characterized by violent convective precipitation Cold weather season characterized by violent snow storms in the mountainous regions

3 Early Warning System An early warning system(ews) is a technology and associated policies and procedures designed to predict and mitigate the harm of natural and human-initiated disasters and other undesirable events. Itisamajorelementofdisasterriskreduction.Itpreventslossoflifeand reduces the economic and material impact of disasters. Early warning systems have the following four components: 1) Risk knowledge: Data should be systematically collected and analyzed and risk assessments performed. 2) Monitoring and warning service: Systems should be installed to monitor hazards and provide early warning services. 3) Dissemination and communication: Risk information and early warning messages must be delivered. 4) Response capability: Systems should be in order to respond to events.

4 Major Types of Natural Disasters affecting Indian subcontinent Floods Earthquakes (related Tsunami) Cyclones Droughts Landslides, Avalanches

5 Nodal agencies for monitoring and early warning of disasters Forecasts / Warnings relating to major Natural Disasters are being provided by. 1) India Meteorological Department (Cyclones, Floods, Drought, earthquakes) 2) Central Water Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources (Floods) 3) Geological Survey of India (Landslides) 4) Department of Ocean Development (Tsunami)

6 Weather and climate-related hazards Storm surges Tropical cyclones Cold & Heat waves Dust storms Snow Storm Hail& Lightning Flash floods Tornadoes Avalanches Monsoon Western Disturbance El Niño Droughts River basin flooding Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) Strong wind Forest fires Mud& landslides Cloud Burst Fog& Haze

7 Distribution of people killed ( ) High human development 2% Low human development 66% Medium human development 32%

8 ( ) Europe 14% Oceania 3% Africa 21% Americas 20% Asia 42%

9 Role of IMD in disaster management Risk identification Knowledge management Risk management applications (agriculture, water resources, etc) Preparedness and emergency management Governance support

10 About India Meteorological Department (MoES) 1905 IMD was established in the year 1875 with its headquarters in Kolkata. Meteorological Centre Shimla was Established on 9th Dec 2002 by the Govt of India, MoES, India Meteorological Department(IMD). During 1905, Shimla became the headquarters of IMD and Calcutta was reduced to the status of a branch office Finally the Head office was shifted at New Delhi. After 1935 On20July1928HQWofIMDwas shifted to Pune. IMD Pune is known to the public as Shimla Office.

11 Organisation of IMD 6 Regions & Met Centers at State Capitals 6 Regional Centers 3 Area Cyclone Warning Centers (ACWC) 4 Met Watch Offices (MWO) at the major airports Meteorological Centers (MC) are located in State capitals to directly link up with State level officials AC WC AC WC AC WC New Strategy The Block has now become the target of service dissemination rather than the Districts A major challenge of creating Tehsil specific forecasts and advisories has been taken up

12 Different Services by IMD Different Services Different Services to different Sectors

13 IMD's Mandate The Principal government agency in all matters relating to meteorology, seismology and allied subjects. To take meteorological observations and to provide current and forecast meteorological information. To warn against severe weather. To provide meteorological statistics required for various nation-building activities. To promote research in meteorology and allied disciplines. To detect and locate earthquakes and to evaluate seismicity in different parts of the country.

14 Meteorological Observational Network of IMD 2500 Surface Observatories DRMS Network of IMD 62 Seismological Network Pilot Balloon Network Doppler Weather Radars 39 List of RS/RW Stations

15 Surface Observatories Surface Obsy: Part time: Rain gauges: Others: Upper Air Observatories RS/RW: PBO: Automated Weather Stations AWS: Agro-AWS: ARG : AWS (ICAR) : Others Seismic Obsy: ARS:

16 Forecasting Tools NWP Charts Satellite Products NCMRWF Charts Collection of WX data & Preparation of WX Charts Application of Local Tools DWR Data Generation of We eather Forecast For Himacha al Pradesh. Dissemination Regional Weather Inference

17 Classification of Weather Forecasts Now casting (very short range): <3 hours Short Range Forecasting (SRF): < 3 days Medium Range Forecasting (MRF): 3-10 days Extended Range Forecasting (ERF):10-30 days Long Range Forecasting (LRF): >30 days

18 Types of weather forecasts issued by Meteorological Centre Shimla S. No. Type of Weather F/C Area Validity 1. General Weather F/C Low, Medium & High Hills of HP 7 -Days 2. City Forecast 13 Cities 7 - Days 3. Value Added Forecast District level 5- Days 4. Farmers WX Forecast District Level 3 - Days 5. Now cast District level 3 Hours 6. Tourist Forecast 15 Places 7 - Days 7. Highway Forecast Four part of NH 7 - Days 8. Hydrological Sector Sutlej & Beas Catchment Area 7 - Days 9. METARS/SPECIES Air Port Authority Shimla ½ Hour 10. VVIP/VIP Forecast At the time of demand 11. Heat wave forecast District level 5- Days

19 Specific users for dissemination of Weather Forecast S. No. Specific Users Phone/Fax ID 1. Chief Secretary SDMA Linkage with Govt of HP website 3. Doordarshan Shimla AIR Shimla FM Radio By 6. Big FM By 7. PIB BBMB All DCs & other Govt Officials As per list As per list 10. Divisional Commissioners By 11. Agriculture/Horticulture Deptt By 12. All Electronic media As per list As per list 13. All Print Media As per list As per list 14. Farmers SMS through mobile application 15. General Public. Phone/ 16. Central Govt(CWC, ITBP, Rly) By

20 State level weather forecast bulletin

21 District wise weather forecast bulletin

22 Nowcast (short range forecast)

23 City forecast in website page

24 Tourist forecast in website page

25 Highway forecast in website page

26 Warning bulletin

27 District wise weather warnings on website

28 Weekly Rainfall in HP during Monsoon-2013

29 District wise Rainfall Maps Today s Rainfall 19 June Cumulative Rainfall 1June to 19 June 2014

30 Mode of dissemination

31 Future Plans State * DWR ** MRR GPS Radiosonde *** CSWDR Systems **** HAW OS AWS/ ARG/ SG SFO Radiomet er J & K NIL 1 HP NIL 1 UK SHWB NIL 3 1 NIL 1 15 NIL NIL TOTAL *Doppler s Weather Radar, **Micro Rain Radar, ***Compact Severe Weather Detection Radar System, ****Helicopter Automatic Weather Observation System ***** Surface Field Observatory 3

32 SUMMARY EWS is a crucial component in disaster mitigation. An excellent warning is useless if not issued timely to communities at risk. Warnings not reacted upon by end-users, are indicative of a failed EWS. Early Warning capabilities of IMD plays an important role in disaster mitigation.

33 thank you Thank you.