Gridded Spring Forecast Maps for Natural Resource Planning

Transcription

1 Gridded Spring Forecast Maps for Natural Resource Planning Alyssa Rosemartin Partner and Application Specialist USA National Phenology Network National Coordinating Office

2 What s Phenology Phenology refers to recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, such as leafing and flowering, maturation of agricultural plants, emergence of insects, and migration of birds. It is also the study of these seasonal changes, especially their timing and relationships with weather and climate.

3 USA National Phenology Network Primary goals Advance the science of phenology Support the use of phenological information in decision-making UNDERSTAND HOW SPECIES AND LANDSCAPES ARE RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE. What We Do Make phenology data, models and related information available. Encourage people of all ages and backgrounds to observe phenology. Photo credit: C. Enquist

4 Standard protocols Web & mobile apps Tools for download and visualization, with climate data Campaigns Quality Assurance/Quality Control Published science and management applications published

5 Total phenology records (Jan 2009 Feb 2016)

6 Data product development historical

7 Gridded historic and forecast products Leverage existing climate data sets to answer phenologically-relevant questions, for a given region of interest: Is this year warming up (is heat accumulating) faster or slower than usual? With a Spring Index model, we can ask Has the timing of spring been changing? Is the timing of spring getting more variable? Is this spring earlier or later than usual?

8 Accumulated Growing Degree Day (AGDD) - Forecast Forecast for 3/26/2016 Last updated: 3/20/2016 Base: 32 Scale: 2.5 Km Source: URMA/RTMA Start Date: Jan 1

9 Example Application of AGDD map Mobilizing to protect nut trees in Arizona: Nut growers want advance warning of potentially harmful frosts, but only when their trees in vulnerable condition. Frozen pecan bud Accumulated temperature (GDD) Jan 1 No risk of frost damage Time More risk of frost damage Budburst Image: northernpecans.blogspot.com

10 AGDD Forecast Anomaly 900 AGDD cooler than normal No difference Forecast for 3/26/2016 Last updated: 3/20/2016 Scale: 2.5 Km (PRISM bilinearly interpolated down) Source: URMA/RTMA and PRISM 900 AGDD warmer than normal

11 Extended Spring Indices (SI-x) Heat accumulation Synoptic events First leaf date First leaf date First leaf and first bloom dates are average of cloned and common lilac, and two species of honeysuckle. More heat First bloom date Schwartz 1997 Schwartz et al 2006 More synoptic events

12 SI-x as a climate change indicator data.globalchange.gov/report/indicator-start-of-spring

13 Historical Annual Spring Indices Phenometric: First Leaf Date Date range: Scale: 4KM Source: PRISM

14 SI-x First Leaf Forecast Day of Year Forecast for 3/26/2016 Last updated: 3/20/2016 Scale: 2.5 Km Source: URMA/RTMA and PRISM

15 Forecast Leaf Anomaly Day of Year Forecast for 3/26/2016 Last updated: 3/20/2016 Scale: 2.5 Km Source: URMA/RTMA and PRISM

16 Applications - Lead time to look out for: - Potential for mismatch between interacting species - Potential impacts to species that visitors focus on (eg, cherry blooms) - An unusually early and warm spring can mean a more intense fire season. - Catching phenophases of interest - Rare plant monitoring and seed collection

17 Spring advancing at NPS Units Phenometric: First Leaf and First Bloom Indices Date range: Scale: 1 decimal degree Source: Berkeley Earth Monahan et al. in review.

18 Uncertainty and Error All products are available, as provisional this year. Ongoing exploration and documentation of potential issues related to: Source data products, and integration of products Spring index models Working with partners on pilot applications to assess product utility Conducting some product inter-comparisons

19 Comparison to Climate Ref Network Last Updated: 2/19/2016 Year: 2016 Mean Absolute Error: AGDD Source: RTMA/URMA and Climate Reference Network

20 Implementation USA-NPN Phenology Visualization Tool (April) usanpn.org/data/visualizations Geoserver Web Mapping Service generates images and animations, format examples (PNG, GeoTIFF, OpenLayers, KML) Web Coverage Service generates files for analysis (with GIS products and R), format example (GML, XML, GeoTIF, NetCDF)

21 Future possibilities 2050 SI-x projections 2080 CESM RCP 8.5 CESM RCP 8.5 Ault et al. in prep.

22 Future possibilities Land Surface Phenology Start of Spring (SOS) data products, for the NCA Indicator system (NASA Funded) mean SOS day of year and 2010 SOS anomalies at 500-m spatial resolution 2010 anomalies for states and NCA regions Magnitude and statistical significance in SOS trends for states and NCA regions Grey et al, BU and NC State

23 Future possibilities Damage Index Mock Up Number of days by which leaf out precedes average last freeze date. Number of days by which leaf out follows average last freeze date.

24 Connect with USA-NPN Explore gridded products ing Check out phenology data and sign up for researcher newsletter: erview Partner with us: Alyssa Rosemartin

25 Extra slides

26 RTMA/URMA vs PRISM Year: 2015 Source: RTMA/URMA and PRISM

27 Spring advancing at NPS Units First Leaf First Bloom Tallgrass Prairie National Preserve (with 30 km buffer), Kansas, USA Monahan et al. in prep.

28 Comparison to Station-based SI-x Year: 2015 Source: PRISM and Mark D. Schwartz Unpublished Data

29 Recap AGDD and SI-x Products Both tell you something about how this spring compares to prior springs, trends over time, and what will happen near term. Accumulated Heat Accumulated GDD value for each day of year Info about spring before thresholds are met. If you know the GDD required for species/phenophase of interest; you can use this as a data source to predict it Spring Indices Leaf out date each year Bloom date each year Synthesis of biologically relevant climate information Facilitates comparisons across years in timing of spring

30 Applications of Phenology Data Resource management Conservation Agriculture Ecosystem services Science Health Decision-support tools for human adaptation to climate change