Use of climate reanalysis for EEA climate change assessment. Blaz Kurnik. European Environment Agency (EEA)

Transcription

1 Use of climate reanalysis for EEA climate change assessment Blaz Kurnik European Environment Agency (EEA)

2 2016: EEA content priorities Circular economy Climate and Energy Sustainable Development Goals Refit Monitoring and Reporting Natural Capital Copernicus: land monitoring service and in-situ coordination SOER2020

3 EEA and Copernicus Climate Change Service Data for analysing climate change impacts Information for supporting adaptation Active user Climate change indicators and assessments Climate ADAPT information system Providing user feedback to the Service

4 Climate change, impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptations Climate change impacts indicators Climate change impacts report Report on Extreme weather and climate in Europe Climate ADAPT

5 Climate indicators Temperature An indicator on Global and European temperature Answering the policy question on 2 C target Updated and improved annually Various global and European datasets used Uncertainty information presented in different ways

6 2015 the warmest year on record, according to different near-surface temperature observational analyses with anomalies close to 1 o C. the decade was between 0.83 and 0.89 o C warmer than the period (pre-industrial)

7 Global temperature EEA, UK Met Office based on HadCRUT4 (Morice et al., 2012), NOAAGlobalTemp (Karl et al, 2015) and NASA-GISS (Hansen et al., 2010)

8 ppm Reasons Anthropogenic influence C0 2 concentration close to 400 ppm (highest in last years) 2015 values ~ 400 ppm 2015 Based on Luthi, et al., 2008; US EPA, 2015

9 Reasons ENSO (strong positive phase after 1998)

10 Timeseries of global temperature New data with more stations available Based on NOAAGlobalTemp (Karl et al, 2015)

11 Global and European temperature using reanalysis Temperature anomalies in 2015 ERA-Iterim, Dee et al, 2011, HadCRUT4 (Morice et al., 2012)

12 European temperature EEA, UK Met Office based on HadCRUT4 (Morice et al., 2012), NOAAGlobalTemp (Karl et al, 2015) and NASA-GISS (Hansen et al., 2010) and E-OBS (Haylock, 2008)

13 European temperature Source: van der Schrier, 2013; Haylock, 2008

14 EEA report on climate extremes in Europe Observations and projections of extreme events Extreme temperature (Heat waves) Droughts (meteorological, soil moisture and hydrological droughts) Hail Heavy precipitation

15 Precipitation extremes use of different indices EEA, UK Met Office based E-OBS (Haylock, 2008)

16 Trends in hail events Trends in mean potential hail index (PHI) Based on the logistic hail model (Mohr, Kunz, and Geyer, 2015) and reanalysis data from NCEP-NCAR (Kalnay et al., 1996).

17 Key messages from the report Since 2003 Europe has experienced several extreme summer heatwaves (2003, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2014 and 2015). Heat waves are projected to become the norm in the second half of the 21st century under a high forcing scenario (RCP8.5). The length of wet spells as well as the intensity of heavy precipitation events have decreased in southwestern Europe but increased in northern and northeastern Europe since 1960s. High resolution precipitation dataset not available. Since 1951 increasing hail trends have been noted in southern France parts of Spain and Austria, and decreasing (but not significant) trends in parts of eastern Europe. No observation data over Europe.

18 Climate Change impact report under preparation Assessing impacts of past and future climate change Chapters on climate system, climate impacts on socio-economic sectors, ecosystems, and health Vulnerability to climate change

19 Addressing different socio-economic sectors Disaster risk reduction: e.g. Number of climate extremes with recorded impacts Agriculture: e.g. Soil moisture Energy: e.g. Heating and cooling degree days Transport: e.g. Impacts of extreme events Tourism: e.g. Summer and winter tourism Urban: e.g. Impacts of heat waves

20 Economic losses from natural hazards No clear trends in damages cumulatively 400 billion Euro in Positive trends in number driven primarily by better reporting and by socio-economic factors Munich Re NatCatService EEA member countries, inflation adjusted values

21 Agriculture - Trends in soil moisture droughts In the last decade 15% territory and 17% population affected by droughts each year. Droughts have increased in parts of Europe, in particular in south-western and central Europe

22 Energy Heating degree day (HDD) Changes in HDD combined with C02 emissions from residential sector 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% change in HDD change in C02

23 Vulnerability to climate change in urban regions 70 % of Europeans reside in urban areas, also economic centres of Europe Urban areas exposed to heat waves, urban flooding, water scarcity, forest fires High spatial resolution datasets needed (climate + impact models)

24 European Climate Adaptation Platform Climate-ADAPT Scope: Launched 2012, supports developing and implementing adaptation strategies, policies and actions Complementary to national, other platforms Intended Users: Experts and decision makers on EU, transnational, national, subnational levels, research institutes

25 Climate information for policy makers Selection of a ECV or an index for a selected timestamp Options for spatial aggregation Temporal presentation of selected ECV

26 Conclusions Need for high resolution datasets for assessing extreme events. Need for homogenised datasets (spatially and temporarily). Inclusion of indices for the use in the indicators in different socio-economic sectors. Availability of data for the regions outside Europe to assess climate change impacts on Europe. Ready and easily available datasets for immediate use for all users.

27 Thank you See for more information: