Tracking Phenology in Tucson as an Indicator of a Changing Climate. LoriAnne Barnett Education Coordinator, USA-NPN

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1 Tracking Phenology in Tucson as an Indicator of a Changing Climate LoriAnne Barnett Education Coordinator, USA-NPN

2 Tracking Phenology Overview Phenology and Climate Nature s Notebook and the USA National Phenology Network Local Applications

3 Phenology Just to be clear phrenology a pseudoscience focused on measurements of the human skull and size of the brain phonology a branch of linguistics concerned with the organization of sounds in

4 L. Barnett Phenology What is phenology? Nature s calendar The science of the seasons Blooms and buds Hibernation, migration, emergence Easy to observe Who observes phenology? Scientists Gardeners Agriculturists Land managers Youth Famous historical figures it is the study of recurring plant and animal life-cycle stages, or phenophases, and their relationship to environmental conditions. C. Enquist

5 Phenology A big picture concept That ties it all together.

6 Thoreau Jefferson Phenology History and Phenology Research, spring timing and range Record keeping Journals, herbarium Crowd-sourced data, lilacs Spring Index Results 43 species at Walden Pond bloom 7 days earlier than 150 years ago 1/3 of species the Leopolds recorded are arriving 2-3 weeks earlier SPECIES AND ECOSYSTEMS ARE INFLUENCED BY GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

7 Phenology Distribution C ABIOTIC Soil Water Climate N BIOTIC Living Once living Plant or animal Abundance

8 A healthy watershed is one in which natural land cover supports dynamic hydrologic and geomorphic processes within their natural range of variation; habitat of sufficient size and connectivity supports native aquatic and riparian species; and water quality supports healthy biological communities. DIVERSITY. Identifying and protecting healthy watersheds US EPA 2/12

9 Phenology When observing phenology, know what you are looking for GERMINATION SEED/ EMBRYO SET SEED MATURE PLANT LIFE CYCLE Leaves GREEN GROWTH Annual (1) Biennial (2) Perennial (2+) BEAN FLOWER and when it occurs

10 Phenology Phenophases Animals Mating ADULT Live Birth ANIMAL LIFE CYCLE YOUNG ADULTS Feeding Active Individuals

11 Phenology Onset of summer flowering in a Sky Island is driven by monsoon moisture Theresa M. Crimmins, Michael A. Crimmins, and C. David Bertelsen New Phytologist (2011) 191: Low elevation - monsoon precipitation More favorable conditions result in earlier flowering date The wetter the year, the earlier the flowers appear Relationship between July precip and first flowering date for 6 species recorded along a route on Mt. Kimball, Santa Catalina Mountains, Tucson, AZ

12 Phenological patterns are important, economically and biologically and sensitive to climate and sensitive to climate change. Phenology is perhaps the simplest process in which to track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change. (IPCC 2007) Because of their close connection with climate, the timing of phenological events can be accurate indicators of climate change. (EPA 2010)

13 Phenology EARLIER Phenology and Climate Change Research, spring timing and range A three-way mismatch English Oak EARLIER Winter Moth SAME TIME EACH YEAR Pied Flycatcher Both et al Nature

14 Phenology Wildfires Flu season Festivals Pests & Diseases Ecotourism Allergies Invasions Agriculture

15 Phenology 1. Plant and animal development rely upon internal, environmental and climatic cues 2. Changes in climate affect the food chain 3. Plants and animals can only reproduce under optimum conditions 4. Changing conditions alters species tolerance RESPONSE: Shifting phenology (life-cycles) Shifting range boundaries, new biome? Changing morphology Extirpation or Extinction

16 Tracking Phenology Overview Phenology and Climate Nature s Notebook and the USA National Phenology Network Local Applications

17 USA National Phenology Network Primary goal To encourage observation of phenological events and understand how plants, animals and landscapes respond to environmental variation and climate change. A NATIONAL NETWORK OF INTEGRATED PHENOLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SPACE AND TIME. Mission Make phenology data, models and related information available to scientists, resource managers and the public. Encourage people of all ages and backgrounds to observe and record phenology.

18 USA National Phenology Network What Is Citizen Science? Engages volunteers Expands ability of scientists Teaches scientific methods Public and professional scientists Research teams Educate and generate data Meet science & research goals Eliminates gloom and doom Citizen Science Info

19 A Multi-taxa, National-scale Multi-taxa, national scale Plant and animal phenology observation program Citizen science Core protocols for research

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21 USA National Phenology Network 654 plant species and 243 animal species = ~900 total 1815 observers reporting (6201 total) making ~250,000 observations

22 USA National Phenology Network Leaves Flowers Fruits

23 USA National Phenology Network Phenophases - Plants Leaves Breaking leaf buds - what do they look like? Leaves-what do they look like? Increasing leaf size Colored leaves Falling leaves, Dried leaves Flowers Flowers or flower buds Open flowers Pollen release Fruits Fruits Ripe Fruits Recent fruit or seed drop

24 USA National Phenology Network Event Status Abundance how many? Sample Nature s Notebook data sheet YES NO UNCERTAIN No record if you did not check

25 Phenology Phenophases Animals Mating ADULT Live Birth ANIMAL LIFE CYCLE YOUNG ADULTS Feeding Active Individuals

26 USA National Phenology Network

27 Tracking Phenology Overview Phenology and Climate Nature s Notebook and the USA National Phenology Network Local Applications

28 Local Applications In Our Gardens By observing plant and animal species here, a local dataset can be compiled and analyzed to determine the impact of increasing drought and unpredictable climate conditions on the life cycles of these systems. Bloom times on irrigated plants vs. non-irrigated How are temperature changes affecting bloom time in native plants? What are the affects of the cold snap on bloom times? Do all ocotillo put on leaves after the seasonal rains? When do the inflorescences appear? When do pollinators visit the pollinator garden? Is there a relationship to blooming host plants? Are patterns in pollinator behavior changing? And Is precipitation impacting water needs and health of urban landscapes?

29 Local Applications What is a Phenology Trail? A phenology trail is a network of Nature s Notebook observation sites. Each site has at least two plant and/or animal individuals tagged for data collection.

30 Local Applications Species being monitored Jojoba Velvet mesquite Yellow paloverde Blue paloverde Ocotillo Creosote Florida hopbush Saguaro Penstemon (parryi) Texas Ranger Desert Ironwood Important to know natives

31 Local Applications Tucson Phenology Trail Currently 7 locations Biosphere 2 UA Campus Sam Hughes Neighborhood Pima Extension Offices (2) Santa Rita Experimental Range Tucson Audubon Mason Center Tumamoc Hill Madera Canyon Total of 75 Miles, start to finish 3-10 species tagged at each

32 Phenology, in short, is a horizontal science which transects all ordinary biological professions. Whoever sees the land as a whole is likely to have an interest in it. A. Leopold

33 Thank you! You re invited to connect with USA-NPN LoriAnne Barnett Sign up for a phenology e-newsletter (quarterly) Join the Nature s Notebook community and become an observer: Contribute to science while having fun! Discover new tools and resources for work or play LoriAnne Barnett