Chart Discussion: Fri-03-Mar-2017 (Harvey Stern) Chart Discussion: Fri-03-Mar-2017

Transcription

1 Chart Discussion: Fri-03-Mar

2 MSL Analysis/Sat Image (Thursday) 2

3 Review of Last Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-02-Mar-2017 MSL Pressure Analysis 168H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 3

4 MSL Analysis/Sat Image (Friday) 4

5 Summer Rainfall 5

6 Summer Rainfall Deciles 6

7 MSL Analyses : Sat-25-Feb to Thu-02-Mar 7

8 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies El Niño WATCH: likelihood of El Niño in 2017 increases Two Months Back[CENTERED 14-DEC]: Last Week [CENTRED 22-FEB]: 8

9 Seasonal Outlook (Numerical Model) Mar-May 9

10 Seasonal Outlook (Statistical Model) The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.11 (0.21 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -0.38, the average SOI for the past 30 days is -1.71, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for FEB/MAR is Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak El Niño. 10

11 Seasonal Outlook (Statistical Model) RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total APR/MAY/JUN rainfall will be above normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN overnight temperatures will be above normal in the CENTRAL District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WESTERN District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN daytime temperatures will be above normal in the MALLEE, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts. 11

12 - & for Melbourne 30 Days(Statistical Model) 12

13 Jet Streams: Fri-03-Mar

14 MSL Pressure: Fri-03-Mar

15 Jet Streams: Sat-04-Mar

16 MSL Pressure: Sat-04-Mar

17 Jet Streams: Sun-05-Mar

18 Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Feb-2017 (Harvey Stern) MSL Pressure: Sun-05-Mar

19 Jet Streams: Mon-06-Mar

20 Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Feb-2017 (Harvey Stern) MSL Pressure: Mon-06-Mar

21 Jet Streams: Tue-07-Mar

22 MSL Pressure: Tue-07-Mar

23 Jet Streams: Wed-08-Mar

24 MSL Pressure: Wed-08-Mar

25 Jet Streams: Thu-09-Mar

26 MSL Pressure: Thu-09-Mar

27 Official 7-Day Forecast (Olympic Park) 27

28 GFS (US-Model) 7-Day Forecast (Olympic Park & Melbourne CBD) 28

29 ECMWF-Model 7-Day Forecast (Melbourne CBD) 29

30 Next Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-09-Mar H ACCESS. 168H US GFS - Rapid Update 168H ECMWF - Deterministic 30

31 ECMWF MSL Pressure (Deterministic): Fri-10-Mar-2017 to Sun-12-Mar

32 Chart Discussion: Fri-03-Mar-2017 Thank You 32