Chart Discussion: Fri-09-Nov-2018 (Harvey Stern) Chart Discussion Latest Chart & SAT PIC

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1 Chart Discussion Latest Chart & SAT PIC 1

2 Last Week s Rainfall 2

3 Past Week s Surface Charts 3

4 Last Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-08-Nov-2018 OBSERVED Chart Discussion: Fri-09-Nov-2018 (Harvey Stern) 168H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 4

5 Climate Indices El Niño ALERT continues; positive Indian Ocean Dipole; For SST Anomalies: Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed to El Niño levels over the past fortnight. However, atmospheric indicators of El Niño are largely near normal, suggesting that the ocean and atmosphere are not yet reinforcing each other, or 'coupled'. This reinforcement is critical in any El Niño developing and becoming self-sustaining. 5

6 Victorian 3-Month Outlook (DEC/JAN/FEB) The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.38 (0.73 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -2.98, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 4.28, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for OCT/NOV is Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a weak El Niño. This suggests: RAINFALL: Mixed OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: Mixed DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: Mixed 6

7 Melbourne 30-Day Outlook In Melbourne, at this time of the year, a combination of the MEI, the DMI, and the MJO Phase, such as what we have operating now, suggests, over the following 30 days: RAINFALL: There is a 22% chance of it being wet, a 32% chance of normal rainfall, and a 46% chance of it being dry. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a 35% chance of warm nights, a 33% chance of normal overnight temperatures, and a 32% chance of cool nights. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a 33% chance of warm days, a 33% chance of normal daytime temperatures, and a 34% chance of cool days. 7

8 BoM Climate Outlook (25-Oct) The November to January climate outlook indicates large parts of Australia are likely to be drier than average. November to January days are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Nights are also likely to be warmer than average, except for areas surrounding the Great Australian Bight. 8

9 Jet Streams: Fri-09-Nov

10 MSL Pressure: Fri-09-Nov

11 Jet Streams: Sat-10-Nov

12 MSL Pressure: Sat-10-Nov

13 Jet Streams: Sun-11-Nov

14 MSL Pressure: Sun-11-Nov

15 Jet Streams: Mon-12-Nov

16 MSL Pressure: Mon-12-Nov

17 Jet Streams: Tue-13-Nov

18 MSL Pressure: Tue-13-Nov

19 Jet Streams: Wed-14-Nov

20 MSL Pressure: Wed-14-Nov

21 Jet Streams: Thu-15-Nov

22 MSL Pressure: Thu-15-Nov

23 Next Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-15-Nov H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 23

24 Following ACCESS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-16-Nov-2018 to Sun-18-Nov-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 24

25 Following ECMWF MSLP Forecasts: Fri-16-Nov-2018 to Sun-18-Nov-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 25

26 Following GFS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-16-Nov-2018 to Sun-18-Nov-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 26

27 PREDICTED WEATHER For GFS, ACCESS, & ECMWF NWP models, & also CONSENSUS click on : Chart Discussion Thank You 27

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