Winter Season Resource Adequacy Analysis
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1 Winter Season Resource Adequacy Analysis Patricio Rocha-Garrido Sr. Engineer Resource Adequacy Planning RAAS August 4, 2017
2 Introduction Reliability requirements for the RTO and LDAs are calculated based on scenarios and LOLE allocations described in the following slides. Results for Scenario 1 are not included because PRISM s forced outage independence assumption is not realistic under winter peak load conditions. 2
3 Scenario 2 Historical Forced Outages & PRISM Planned Outages Winter peak Forced Outages are observed values from the five weekdays of the peak load week of each of the winters over the 9- yr period (DY07-DY15). (45 data points.) Available capacity cumulative distribution is developed by assuming that each of the 45 observations is equally likely to happen. Lumpiness of cumulative distribution is addressed by using linear interpolation Planned Outages are scheduled by PRISM. 3
4 Scenario 3 Historical Forced Outages & Mean Historical Planned Outages Winter peak forced outages and available capacity cumulative distribution are as per Scenario 2. Winter peak Planned Outages are observed values from the five weekdays of each winter peak week over the 9-yr period (DY07- DY15) Specifically, the mean of the historical values is calculated and assumed to be the amount of Planned Outages in the peak winter week. Planned outages in rest of weeks is based on PRISM. 4
5 Scenario 4 Historical Forced Outages & Max Historical Planned Outages Winter peak forced outages and available capacity cumulative distribution are as per Scenarios 2 and 3. Winter peak Planned Outages are observed values from the five weekdays of each winter peak week over the 9-yr period (DY07- DY15) Specifically, the maximum of the historical values is calculated and assumed to be the amount of Planned Outages in the peak winter week. Planned outages in rest of weeks is based on PRISM. 5
6 Scenario 5 Historical Forced Outages & No Planned Outages on Peak Winter week Forced outages and available capacity cumulative distribution are as per Scenarios 2, 3 and 4. No Planned Outages are scheduled in the peak winter week. Planned outages in rest of weeks is based on PRISM (adjusted for the planned outages removed from the peak winter week). 6
7 Scenario 6 Historical Forced Outages & No Planned Outages in January (peak winter month) Forced outages and available capacity cumulative distribution are as per Scenarios 2, 3, 4 and 5. No Planned Outages are scheduled in the entire month of January (peak winter month). Planned outages in rest of weeks is based on PRISM (adjusted for the planned outages removed from the peak winter month). 7
8 Alternative Scenario (Version A of each previous scenario) A variation of the Historical scenarios is also included. The variation removes Winter 14/15 peak week data (first polar vortex) and replaces it with Winter 15/16 peak week data (second polar vortex). 8
9 Assumptions Summer is defined as Jun October plus May from next calendar year. Winter comprises the rest of the months Planned and Forced Outages in accordance with each scenario are only considered for the Winter peak week (rest of 51 weeks use PRISM assumptions) RTO case is based on 2016 RRS for 2020 DY LDA cases are based on 2020 BRA CETO runs 9
10 Assumptions The RTO s LOLE allocation between Summer and Winter is made according to the table below The LDAs LOLE allocation between Summer and Winter is made according to the table below 10
11 Methodology Cases are created according to planned and forced outages assumptions dictated by the scenario under consideration For the RTO, the Summer reliability requirement (Summer IRM) is calculated so that Summer LOLE meets the targeted Summer LOLE allocation (0.1 under the 100/0 allocation, 0.09 under the 90/10 allocation, etc) Winter reliability requirement is calculated by subtracting UCAP from the Summer Reliability Requirement until the Winter LOLE meets the targeted Winter LOLE allocation ( under the 100/0 allocation, 0.01 under the 90/10 allocation, etc) 11
12 Methodology For LDAs, the Summer reliability requirement (based on the Summer CETO) is calculated so that Summer LOLE meets the targeted Summer LOLE allocation (0.04 under the 100/0 allocation, under the 90/10 allocation, etc) Winter reliability requirement is calculated by subtracting UCAP from the Summer Reliability Requirement (effectively, by reducing the Summer CETO) until the Winter LOLE meets the targeted Winter LOLE allocation ( under the 100/0 allocation, under the 90/10 allocation, etc) 12
13 Additional information Summer and Winter Reliability Requirements A zero in a Delta Winter RelReq column means that the Annual reliability requirement cannot be decreased (because the Summer LOLE plus Winter LOLE is greater than the LOLE criterion) Results for some scenarios for some LDAs are identical, namely: Scenario 2 and Scenario 5 for SWMAAC because PRISM schedules no planned outages on the winter peak week (also Scenarios 2A and 5A for SWMAAC) Scenario 2 and Scenario 3 for MAAC and EMAAC because PRISM schedules an amount of planned outages during the winter peak week that is similar to the respective mean historical value (also Scenarios 2A and 3A for MAAC and EMAAC) 13
14 Results Scenario 2 14
15 Results Scenario 2A 15
16 Results Scenario 3 16
17 Results Scenario 3A 17
18 Results Scenario 4 18
19 Results Scenario 4A 19
20 Results Scenario 5 20
21 Results Scenario 5A 21
22 Results Scenario 6 22
23 Results Scenario 6A 23
24 Sensitivity Maintenance Outages Scenarios 2-6 and 2A-6A do not include the impact of Maintenance Outages on the peak winter week To capture their impact, historical observed Maintenance Outages were treated as additional Forced Outages In general, Maintenance Outages are difficult to predict and can t be postponed beyond a few days Reliability requirements under Scenarios 3 and 3A were recalculated to capture the impact of historical observed winter peak week Maintenance Outages 24
25 Sensitivity Maintenance Outages Results Scenario 3 with Winter Peak Week Historical Maintenance Outages 25
26 Sensitivity Maintenance Outages Results Scenario 3A with Winter Peak Week Historical Maintenance Outages 26
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IOSR Journal of Engineering (IOSRJEN) ISSN (e): 2250-3021, ISSN (p): 2278-8719 Vol. 04, Issue 08 (August. 2014), VX PP 14-20 www.iosrjen.org The Effect of Cloudy Days on the Annual Typical Meteorological