Wind power and management of the electric system. EWEA Wind Power Forecasting 2015 Leuven, BELGIUM - 02/10/2015

Transcription

1 Wind power and management of the electric system EWEA Wind Power Forecasting 2015 Leuven, BELGIUM - 02/10/2015

2 HOW WIND ENERGY IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT WHEN MANAGING ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION SYSTEM IN FRANCE? AGENDA : Electric System and Wind power in France Impact of wind energy when managing the grid Dedicated tool for RES Forecast and system operations 2

3 3 1 - Electric system and RES in France

4 The transmission grid French electricity system the grid RTE owns and operates the largest electricity grid in Europe: km of HV and EHV lines (63 kv up to 400 kv) ~ 2600 substations Asset management, Electricity flows management, Grid Access management, Developing a sustainable grid Distribution grids (From LV (230V) to MV (20kV)) Operated mainly by erdf (95% of distribution grid, with 1.3 million of km network) Other locale companies Wind power by administrative area Wind and Photovoltaic production in France 15.4 GW connected (9.7 GW for wind and 5.7 GW for PV) Wind farms: more than 1000 sites (>1MW) PV: about 450 PV sites (>1MW) and more than «small» installations! Mainly connected to the distribution grids (>95%) Between 50 and 70 GW expected by

5 Focus on wind power in France Localization and behavior of wind power Not gathered in one place Distributed in six main areas with different climates A national production really smoother than local production 5

6 6 2 Wind power and Management of the electric system

7 Impact on balancing A balance at any time Between demand and production On behalf of users of the electricity transmission system Imbalances due to power plants outages, error forecasts of demand or RES Demand Balancing by RTE Production Schedules (and RES Forecasts) Considering also exchanges on interconnections Balancing Mechanism With conventional productions (not yet with RES) and consumers directly connected to the transmission grid 7

8 Reserves and RES forecasts Reserves have to be available To ensure this balance and the security of the system Operational reserves (MW) RES generation and size of tertiary reserves Forecast error for wind and PV production taken into account in dimensioning total hazard RTE should cope with. Ancillary services (Automatic) PR SR >608 MW Tertiary reserve 500 to 800 MW sec h 8h PR: Primary Reserve (for Frequency Control) SR: Secondary Reserve (Load-Frequency Control) Time frame No direct (ie in real time) connection with forecast model, Forecast error modelled based on historical data. 8

9 Operating the network with wind generation An example* of network management: 1. Analysis of security with generation and load 2. Detections of possible constraints, according to hypothesis forecasts 3. Wind production forecasts are monitored (alarms configured) to anticipate overload situations. Monitoring of production forecasts *: systems could also be inserted into the network to automatically limit production from wind farm in case of constraints (automatic process between TSO, DSO and producer) 9

10 Planning network operations with wind generation A use of forecasts for maintenance operations on the grid (on opportunistic* approach) * decision made 2-day ahead in this specific situation compared to usual month or week-ahead schedules Wind production connected to distribution grid Wind production forecasts monitoring 1. Area where hydro and wind production are connected 2. A one-day preventive maintenance operation has to be carried out 3. Operation scheduled based on wind power forecasts (possible operation when low wind production) 10

11 11 3 Dedicated tools for monitoring RES

12 IPES: a system dedicated to wind power* A tool to collect data relative to wind farms and to provide information to endusers in charge of managing the grid. *: and PV production! 12

13 Monitoring wind generation with IPES A complete interface to provide different types of data, from measures to forecasts and location of the wind production. Geographical information about wind farms (location, installed capacity, load factor ) Technical information (capacity, measures, forecasts ) Graph of production on a 6 days period (installed capacity, production estimation, forecasts ) 13

14 Monitoring wind generation with IPES (2) Different views and options according levels and needs for exploitation of the network Wind farms connected to power sub-stations Supervision of regional areas Set of alarms to monitor wind production according to potential constraints on the grid Either forecasts and real time estimations, per transformer (in power substations) are automatically provided by IPES to EMS/SCADA and for Operational Planning Tools 14

15 Forecasting wind generation with PREOLE A forecasting model dedicated to wind generation Since 2007, a forecasting model : from wind farms to France (and regional areas, power substations) Real-time measures taken into account to improve very short-term forecasts Forecast up to 72h term (according to weather forecasts) Accuracy of global forecast (France): RMSE about 4-5% of capacity installed (in day ahead) Deterministic forecasts + confident interval For more than 1500 objects Up to 30x/day 15

16 16 5 As a conclusion, Wind power forecasts and system operations

17 RES Forecasts when operating electricity system For a successful integration of Wind power (and RES) in electric system operations, forecasts are essential. To give TSO a better view of wind productions To limit the increase of flexibility needs (or reserves requirements) To ensure better security analysis (grid analysis) To provide more information (deterministic probabilistic) to deal with uncertainties A direct use in risk analysis (with other probabilistic forecasts for consumption, PV) And in security analysis (with power flows scenarios) From local to national levels, From real-time/very-short term up to week ahead, With exchanges for local operations (with DSO) and at European level (coordination centres). Data available for Frenh electric system here: 17

18 Thank you for your attention Emmanuel NEAU RTE, R&D Department 18