Climate Change Scenario Planning: A Tool for Managing Resources in an Era of Uncertainty

Transcription

1 Climate Change Scenario Planning: A Tool for Managing Resources in an Era of Uncertainty Leigh Welling Climate Change Coordinator National Park Service Natural Resource Stewardship & Science Mount Rainier NP, 2006 Bandelier National Monument, May October

2 Alternative Approaches for Adaptation Planning Figure from Peterson et al. Conservation Biology Volume 17, No. 2, April 2003

3 What are Scenarios? Scenarios Are: A tool for long-term strategic planning Compelling narratives of alternative environments in which decisions may be played out Coherent, internally consistent, and plausible Scenarios Are Not: Predictions or Forecasts A method for arriving at the most likely future

4 Scenario Planning Goal: Challenge assumptions and foster strategic thinking about possible responses to different futures A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world. It is not a forecast; rather, each scenario is one alternative image of how the future can unfold. - IPCC, 2006 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report May 2007

5 Slide adapted from Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona Scenario Planning: An Integration of Science and Management Identify the Context or Focal Question List External Drivers Analyze Internal Dynamics Build & Test Scenarios Policy Screening Decision makers, scientists, topical experts Decision makers Scientists, topical experts Types of Scenarios different purposes Strategic testing concepts and models Exploratory moving into the future, e.g., by extending past trends, considering contingencies Anticipatory aiming toward preferred futures and avoiding nightmares

6 Steps to Scenario Planning Identify the Context What is the focal issue? intersection of knowable/unknowable and controllable/ uncontrollable What will the park landscape look like in 50 years? What actions can managers take to protect resources? List External Drivers What are key uncertainties? focus on those with large impact on focal issue: 2-3 critical themes consider views of principal actors How will timing and amount of precipitation change? What will funding and public support look like?

7 Steps to Scenario Planning Analyze Internal Dynamics What are the impacts to changes in external drivers? focus on indicator variables and how they interact with one another What park resources are most sensitive to change? Are there cascading effects or thresholds responses to beware of? Build and Test Scenarios What are primary storylines that capture the range of plausible futures? link external forces/internal dynamics/indicators link past/present/future focus on expanding thinking about current system Lets look at an example process

8 4 Quad Scenario Framework Processes Respond Rapidly Weak to Little Policy Action Lots of Luck Scenario 1.Scenario Details n Socio-Environmental Processes Governance and Policy Actions Well just Delay Scenario 1. Scenario Details n Processes Respond very Slowly Get with it Scenario 1. Scenario Details n Easy Street Scenario 1. Scenario Details n Aggressive Policy Action Slide from Bob Corell, H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment

9 Steps to Scenario Planning Scenario Testing Test for internal consistency Assess plausibility: including human response Identify strengths, weaknesses Policy Screening / Planning Test, analyze scenarios with respect to existing and potential policies Do some policies work under all scenarios? Do some policies lead to traps or dead ends?

10 Traps in Scenario Planning Anchoring to details of a specific scenario important to focus on patterns (trends, thresholds, cascading events) rather than forecast values Keep in mind models can be too cautious as well as too extreme (e.g. sea level rise estimates) Scenarios as intensification of the present

11 An Adaptation Cascade Set Time Scale Controlling Projections 4 Quad Scenarios Downscale Downscale Key Parameters at needed scales Develop Scenarios Plan Craft and Implement Long-Range Plan Tease out Key Projections with Multi- Stresses Track Key Tracking Indicators and Evaluate Progress Progress Set the Time Scales Frame the Frame the Context and Scale (park, ecosystem, etc) Problem Slide from Bob Corell, H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment 31

12 Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop: Joshua Tree National Park Nov 13-14, 2007

13 Building and Testing High precipitation events Winter When it Rains it Pours Summer Soaker Spring / summer Dune Low precipitation

14 Joshua Tree National Park Workshop: 3 Scenarios

15 Summer Soaker Current Mojave Desert: > 900 meters in elevation

16 Summer Soaker Plausible future Mojave Desert: > 1100 meters in elevation

17 Summer Soaker Expansion of Sonoran ecosystem

18 Summer Soaker Potential loss of transitional environments

19 When it rains, it pours Fires, : Approx. 40,000 acres burned

20 When it rains, it pours Plausible future fires: Approx. 600,000 acres burned

21 When it rains, it pours Extensive conversion to non-native grasses

22 Dune Persistent and extensive drought; loss of woody species

23 Dune Increased erosion; loss of vegetative cover; dune formation

24 Common Themes & Potential Management Actions Loss of Mojave Desert species and expansion of Sonoran: For high priority species such as the Joshua Tree, park managers may consider relocation to higher elevations to assist in their survival Other actions might include research on hybrids; strengthening seed banks and nurseries to support future restoration Increased size and severity of wildland fire: Exploring different options for fire breaks on the landscape Invasion of non-native plants: Prioritize increased funding to support staff efforts preventing spread of non-native species, esp grasses

25 Slide adapted from Tucson water plan, 2007 One Dimensional vs Scenario Planning One-Dimensional Planning Outcomes A B C D Scenario Planning Elements Common to A-D Elements Common to A-C Elements Common to A-B Possible Futures A B C D

26 The real value of scenario planning may be in the process Kleiner (1999) describes scenario-building exercises as conversations designed to help a group of people trick themselves to see past their own blind spots. For conservation, major benefits are (1) increased understanding of key uncertainties (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into planning, and (3) improved capacity for adaptive management.