Climate Change, Texas, and the Limits of Confidence. John Nielsen-Gammon Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences Texas A&M University
|
|
|
- Harold Strickland
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Climate Change, Texas, and the Limits of Confidence John Nielsen-Gammon Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences Texas A&M University
2 Global Surface Temperature (3)
3 Pattern of Temperature Trend
4 Regional Temperatures, (PAGES 2013)
5 Multiple datasets & analyses (AR5 WG1 FAQ2.1)
6
7 Mass change, ice sheets (AR5 WG1 Figs 4.13d-4.14d)
8 Changes in Water and Ice (AR5 WG1 FAQ2.1)
9 Global Surface Temperature (3)
10 Global temperatures Global Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C) Base Period: HadCRUT surface GISTEMP surface NGT surface BEST surface RCP8.5 avg
11 Global temperatures Global Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C) Base Period: HadCRUT surface GISTEMP surface NGT surface BEST surface RCP8.5 avg
12 Global Energy Balance, Part 1 Sun Atmosphere Earth Each arrow = 20 W/m 2
13 Scientific Principles Energy Imbalance implies a net gain or loss of energy Typical annually averaged energy imbalances are << 1% of the energy flow
14 Global Energy Balance, Part 1 Sun Atmosphere Earth Each arrow = 20 W/m 2
15 Global Energy Balance, Part 1 Sun Atmosphere Earth Each arrow = 20 W/m 2
16 Global Energy Balance, Part 1 Sun Atmosphere Earth Each arrow = 20 W/m 2
17 Global Energy Balance, Part 1 Sun Atmosphere Earth Each arrow = 20 W/m 2
18 Global Energy Balance, Part 1 Sun Atmosphere Earth Each arrow = 20 W/m 2
19 Global Energy Balance, Part 2 Sun Atmosphere Earth Each arrow = 20 W/m 2
20 Global Energy Balance, Part 2 Sun Atmosphere Earth Each arrow = 20 W/m 2
21 Global Energy Balance, Part 2 Sun Atmosphere Earth Each arrow = 20 W/m 2
22 Global Energy Balance, Part 2 Sun Atmosphere Earth Each arrow = 20 W/m 2
23 Global Energy Balance, Part 3 Sun Atmosphere Earth To maintain heat flow into atmosphere, Earth must warm too
24 Detection and Attribution Identify trend: detection Compare with distinct patterns in space and time caused by different forcing agents Apportion role of different forcing agents: attribution
25 Evolution of Estimated Forcings (AR5 WG1 Fig. 8.18)
26
27
28
29
30
31
32 Global temperatures Global Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C) Base Period: HadCRUT surface GISTEMP surface NGT surface BEST surface RCP8.5 avg
33 Texas vs Globe Global Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C) Base Period: HadCRUT surface GISTEMP surface NGT surface BEST surface RCP8.5 avg Texas
34 Texas 5-yr Avg vs Globe Global Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C) Base Period: HadCRUT surface GISTEMP surface NGT surface BEST surface RCP8.5 avg Texas 5yr
35 Extreme Weather Short definition: Weather that s newsworthy Long definition: two kinds Weather that s extremely unlikely Weather that s unhealthy or damaging (The same event often fits both definitions)
36
37
38
39
40 Melissa Phillip, Houston Chronicle
41 Rainfall (inches) 9 Waller County-Average 1-Day Rainfall (since 1950)
42 Rainfall (inches) 9 8 Waller County-Average 1-Day Rainfall (since 1950) April 18,
43 Rainfall (inches) 9 8 Waller County-Average 1-Day Rainfall (since 1950) August 28,
44 Rainfall (inches) Waller County-Average 1-Day Rainfall (since 1950) August 28, 2017 August 29,
45 Example #1: Heat and Cold IPCC SREX
46 The Three Pillars of Sound Attribution
47 The Three Pillars of Sound Attribution A clear historical trend
48 The Three Pillars of Sound Attribution A clear historical trend Consistent model projection s
49 The Three Pillars of Sound Attribution A clear historical trend Consistent model projection s A sound physical basis
50 Example #2: Heavy Rain
51 The Faucet Climate change s thermodynamic impact: the size of the pipe + 7% per C Climate change s dynamic impact: turning the handle
52 The Faucet The size of the pipe matters most when the faucet is wide open
53 99.98th %ile (14-yr return period) Change in Frequency 0.0x to 0.11x 0.11x to 0.25x 0.25x to 0.43x 0.43x to 0.67x 0.67x to 1.0x 1.0x to 1.5x 1.5x to 2.3x 2.3x to 4x 4x to 9x
54 95% confidence interval using effective degrees of freedom estimated following D. A. Griffith & Z. Zhang (1999): Computational Simplifications Needed for Efficient Implementation of Spatial Statistical Techniques in a GIS, Geographic Information Sciences, 5:2, , DOI: /
55 1 Frequency (events per decade) Example: 20% increase % increase ~ 30% trend
56 Arid Wet
57 Alex 2010 Average Five Day Rainfall, 50,000 sq. mi. Georges 1998 NC Sep 2010 Beulah 1967 Harvey
58 Claude e 1979 Average Five Day Rainfall, 2,000 sq. mi. Beulah 1967 TX Jun 1899 LA Aug 1940 Harvey
59 Average Five Day Rainfall, 2,000 sq. mi. Claude e 1979 Beulah 1967 TX Jun 1899 LA Aug 1940 Harris County: 34 Harvey
60 Example #3: Hurricanes
61 Hurricanes: The Balance of Evidence Increase in peak intensity (1.5 pillars) Decrease in frequency (1 pillar) but spatially variable (1.5 pillars)
62 Did Harvey stall because of climate change? Lat H4 Harvey 2017 Aug TS Allison 2001Jun TS Allison 1989 Jun TS 1908#4 Jul H1 Juan 1985 Oct 2005 TS Alberto 1994 H3 1871#3 Aug H1 1904#1 Oct Coast
63
64 Resources IPCC.ch Special report on extremes (SREX) Fifth assessment report, working group 1 (AR5 WG1) National climate assessment News items AP + USA TODAY + NYTIMES ~ Network news
65 Summary The climate is changing Over the long haul, it s us Future changes are hard to pin down Some impacts are easy It ll get warmer, it ll rain harder Some impacts are hard More droughts? Fewer hurricanes?
66 Contact Information John W. Nielsen-Gammon
2A.5 A Climatology of Catastrophic Flooding in Texas From Tropical Cyclones Derek Ortt and Cameron Self StormGeo Inc, Houston, Texas
2A.5 A Climatology of Catastrophic Flooding in Texas From Tropical Cyclones Derek Ortt and Cameron Self StormGeo Inc, Houston, Texas 1. INTRODUCTION In August 2017, Hurricane Harvey produced catastrophic
Presentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?
Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension The University of Arizona Presentation
Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT NESC, Saratoga, NY
Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT http://alanbetts.com NESC, Saratoga, NY March 10, 2018 Increases in Extreme Weather Last decade: lack
Jackson County 2013 Weather Data
Jackson County 2013 Weather Data 61 Years of Weather Data Recorded at the UF/IFAS Marianna North Florida Research and Education Center Doug Mayo Jackson County Extension Director 1952-2008 Rainfall Data
Hurricane Harvey and What is to come. Eric Berger, Space City Weather
Hurricane Harvey and What is to come Eric Berger, Space City Weather Today s talk A word about Space City Weather Social media-rology A look back at Hurricane Harvey Why does Houston get these storms Rainfall
Historical and Modelled Climate Data issues with Extreme Weather: An Agricultural Perspective. Neil Comer, Ph.D.
Historical and Modelled Climate Data issues with Extreme Weather: An Agricultural Perspective Neil Comer, Ph.D. When Crops are in the fields it s looking good: Trend in Summer Temperature (L) & Summer
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Presented by R.K. Pachauri, IPCC Chair and Bubu Jallow, WG 1 Vice Chair Nairobi, 6 February
Global warming and Extremes of Weather. Prof. Richard Allan, Department of Meteorology University of Reading
Global warming and Extremes of Weather Prof. Richard Allan, Department of Meteorology University of Reading Extreme weather climate change Recent extreme weather focusses debate on climate change Can we
Jackson County 2018 Weather Data 67 Years of Weather Data Recorded at the UF/IFAS Marianna North Florida Research and Education Center
Jackson County 2018 Weather Data 67 Years of Weather Data Recorded at the UF/IFAS Marianna North Florida Research and Education Center Doug Mayo Jackson County Extension Director 1952-2008 Rainfall Data
Future Weather in Toronto and the GTA
Future Weather in Toronto and the GTA Due to Climate Change Electrical Sector Meeting, Nov. 23 rd, 2011 Christopher Ll. Morgan, PhD Toronto Environment Office Contents 2 Introduction (Why We Did What We
Southwest Climate Change Projections Increasing Extreme Weather Events?
Southwest Climate Change Projections Increasing Extreme Weather Events? Jeremy Weiss Climate and Geospatial Extension Scientist School of Natural Resources and the Environment University of Arizona jlweiss@email.arizona.edu
Extremes of Weather and the Latest Climate Change Science. Prof. Richard Allan, Department of Meteorology University of Reading
Extremes of Weather and the Latest Climate Change Science Prof. Richard Allan, Department of Meteorology University of Reading Extreme weather climate change Recent extreme weather focusses debate on climate
WHEN IS IT EVER GOING TO RAIN? Table of Average Annual Rainfall and Rainfall For Selected Arizona Cities
WHEN IS IT EVER GOING TO RAIN? Table of Average Annual Rainfall and 2001-2002 Rainfall For Selected Arizona Cities Phoenix Tucson Flagstaff Avg. 2001-2002 Avg. 2001-2002 Avg. 2001-2002 October 0.7 0.0
2016 Meteorology Summary
2016 Meteorology Summary New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection AIR POLLUTION AND METEOROLOGY Meteorology plays an important role in the distribution of pollution throughout the troposphere,
Jackson County 2014 Weather Data
Jackson County 2014 Weather Data 62 Years of Weather Data Recorded at the UF/IFAS Marianna North Florida Research and Education Center Doug Mayo Jackson County Extension Director 1952-2008 Rainfall Data
2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care
2013 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care Role of the ERCOT Meteorologist Forecasts Develop temperature input for hourly load forecasts (next day, days
Global Climates. Name Date
Global Climates Name Date No investigation of the atmosphere is complete without examining the global distribution of the major atmospheric elements and the impact that humans have on weather and climate.
Hurricanes and typhoons are taking their cues from a changing global climate
Hurricanes and typhoons are taking their cues from a changing global climate By Los Angeles Times, adapted by Newsela staff on 06.18.18 Word Count 921 Level 1050L Image 1. Flooding submerged a road after
Short-Term Job Growth Impacts of Hurricane Harvey on the Gulf Coast and Texas
Short-Term Job Growth Impacts of Hurricane Harvey on the Gulf Coast and Texas Keith Phillips & Christopher Slijk Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Branch The views expressed in this presentation
Global Climate Change and the Implications for Oklahoma. Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey
Global Climate Change and the Implications for Oklahoma Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey OCS LEGISLATIVE MANDATES Conduct and report on studies of climate and weather
Current Climate Trends and Implications
Current Climate Trends and Implications Dr. Mark Seeley Professor emeritus Department of Soil, Water, and Climate University of Minnesota St Paul, MN 55108 Crop Insurance Conference September 12, 2018
Three main areas of work:
Task 2: Climate Information 1 Task 2: Climate Information Three main areas of work: Collect historical and projected weather and climate data Conduct storm surge and wave modeling, sea-level rise (SLR)
Historical and Projected Future Climatic Trends in the Great Lakes Region
Historical and Projected Future Climatic Trends in the Great Lakes Region Jeffrey A. Andresen Dept. of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences Michigan State University Flooding along I-696 Warren,
Champaign-Urbana 2001 Annual Weather Summary
Champaign-Urbana 2001 Annual Weather Summary ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY 2204 Griffith Dr. Champaign, IL 61820 wxobsrvr@sws.uiuc.edu Maria Peters, Weather Observer January: After a cold and snowy December,
Minnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture. Today. 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date
Minnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture Kenny Blumenfeld, State Climatology Office Crop Insurance Conference, Sep 13, 2017 Today 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date
Extreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S.
Extreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University March 7, 2016 Causes of Extreme Rainfall
Manitoba s Future Climate
Climate Change Connection: Severe Weather in MB Workshop, 2 April 2013 Manitoba s Future Climate Danny Blair Associate Dean of Science, University of Winnipeg Professor of Geography Co-Chair, MB s Climate
Highlights of the 2006 Water Year in Colorado
Highlights of the 2006 Water Year in Colorado Nolan Doesken, State Climatologist Atmospheric Science Department Colorado State University http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Presented to 61 st Annual Meeting
Detection and Attribution of Climate Change
Detection and Attribution of Climate Change What is D&A? Global Mean Temperature Extreme Event Attribution Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip (KNMI) Definitions Detection: demonstrating that climate
Drought. Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District September 20, 2011
2010-2011 Drought Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District September 20, 2011 Texas Annual Rainfall Texas Annual Rainfall 1895-2010 Texas Annual Temperature 1895-2010 Notice Any
Global Climate Change and the Implications for Oklahoma. Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey
Global Climate Change and the Implications for Oklahoma Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey Our previous stance on global warming Why the anxiety? Extreme Viewpoints!
Climate Dataset: Aitik Closure Project. November 28 th & 29 th, 2018
1 Climate Dataset: Aitik Closure Project November 28 th & 29 th, 2018 Climate Dataset: Aitik Closure Project 2 Early in the Closure Project, consensus was reached to assemble a long-term daily climate
Natural Disasters and Storms in Philadelphia. What is a storm? When cold, dry air meets warm, moist (wet) air, there is a storm.
Natural Disasters and Storms in Philadelphia 1. What is a natural disaster? 2. Does Philadelphia have many natural disasters? o Nature (noun) everything in the world not made No. Philadelphia does not
Arctic Climate Change. Glen Lesins Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science Dalhousie University Create Summer School, Alliston, July 2013
Arctic Climate Change Glen Lesins Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science Dalhousie University Create Summer School, Alliston, July 2013 When was this published? Observational Evidence for Arctic
Update on Climate Science. Professor Richard Betts, Met Office
Update on Climate Science Professor Richard Betts, Met Office The science of climate change Crown copyright Met Office Prof Richard Betts Head of Climate Impacts Research Crown copyright Met Office Observing
Champaign-Urbana 2000 Annual Weather Summary
Champaign-Urbana 2000 Annual Weather Summary ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY 2204 Griffith Dr. Champaign, IL 61820 wxobsrvr@sws.uiuc.edu Maria Peters, Weather Observer January: January started on a mild note,
Champaign-Urbana 1999 Annual Weather Summary
Champaign-Urbana 1999 Annual Weather Summary ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY 2204 Griffith Dr. Champaign, IL 61820 wxobsrvr@sws.uiuc.edu Maria Peters, Weather Observer A major snowstorm kicked off the new
Claim: Global warming is increasing the magnitude and frequency of droughts and floods. REBUTTAL
Claim: Global warming is increasing the magnitude and frequency of droughts and floods. REBUTTAL Our use of fossil fuels to power our civilization is not causing droughts or floods. NOAA found there is
Mozambique. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Mozambique C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
Climate Science, Projections and BoM Capability
Climate Science, Projections and BoM Capability Climate Information Program: David Jones (Manager of Climate Monitoring and Prediction) & Leading in Climate Data, Monitoring, Prediction and Advice Perry
What is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC WG1 FAQ What is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations
Champaign-Urbana 1998 Annual Weather Summary
Champaign-Urbana 1998 Annual Weather Summary ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY Audrey Bryan, Weather Observer 2204 Griffith Dr. Champaign, IL 61820 wxobsrvr@sparc.sws.uiuc.edu The development of the El Nìno
Ellen L. Mecray NOAA Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region Taunton, MA
Ellen L. Mecray NOAA Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region Taunton, MA Regions of the US National Climate Assessment What we Observe: Climate changes and impacts Increasing temperature Increasingly
An Introduc5on: Climate Change Adapta5on
Dr. Joseph Hagg Science Officer Adapta/on Scotland An Introduc5on: Climate Change Adapta5on 13 th February 2013 contact: joseph.hagg@sepa.org.uk Adapta5on Scotland Partnership: Increase the resilience
Claim: Global warming is increasing the magnitude and frequency of droughts and floods.
Claim: Global warming is increasing the magnitude and frequency of droughts and floods. REBUTTAL Our use of fossil fuels to power our civilization is not causing droughts or floods. NOAA found there is
What is happening to the Jamaican climate?
What is happening to the Jamaican climate? Climate Change and Jamaica: Why worry? Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM) Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona Part 1 RAIN A FALL, BUT DUTTY
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BRIEFING
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BRIEFING 8:00 AM CDT Monday, August 28, 2017 Prepared by: Brian Hoeth, Jason Johnson, on behalf of WGRFC www.weather.gov Current Storm Total Rainfall and River Flood Status 24 Storm
Harvey marks the most extreme rain event in U.S. history
Harvey marks the most extreme rain event in U.S. history By Jason Samenow August 29 at 4:07 PM The rain from Harvey is in a class of its own. The storm has unloaded over 50 inches of rain east of Houston,
Average temperature ( F) World Climate Zones. very cold all year with permanent ice and snow. very cold winters, cold summers, and little rain or snow
P r e v i e w Look carefully at the climagraph of Mumbai, India. What is the wettest month (or months) in Mumbai? What is the driest month (or months) in Mumbai? What effects might this city s climate
Billion Dollar U.S. Flood Disasters in 2016
Billion Dollar U.S. Flood Disasters in 2016 ArkLaMiss, Mar. 16 Houston, Apr. 16 WV, June 16 LA, Aug. 16 Matthew, Oct. 16 Greg Carbin Chief, Forecast Operations Branch NCEP/Weather Prediction Center College
Continuity in the Face of Hurricanes: What Every Business Needs To Know. Cameron Self, Tropical Meteorologist. StormGeo
Continuity in the Face of Hurricanes: What Every Business Needs To Know Cameron Self, Tropical Meteorologist. StormGeo A Hurricane is a Big Heat Engine Forming over warm tropical waters, wind speeds range
Today s Lecture: Land, biosphere, cryosphere (All that stuff we don t have equations for... )
Today s Lecture: Land, biosphere, cryosphere (All that stuff we don t have equations for... ) 4 Land, biosphere, cryosphere 1. Introduction 2. Atmosphere 3. Ocean 4. Land, biosphere, cryosphere 4.1 Land
Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook
Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu How we got into this drought! Fort
The Impact of Weather Extreme Events on US Agriculture
The Impact of Weather Extreme Events on US Agriculture Emanuele Massetti Georgia Institute of Technology, FEEM, CESIfo February 21, 2017 University of Georgia Athens, GA Overview Overview of recent work
Hurricane Science Tutorial. Kerry Emanuel Lorenz Center, MIT
Hurricane Science Tutorial Kerry Emanuel Lorenz Center, MIT Why Should You Care? Forecasting Much progress in social science of response to warnings, requests to evacuate, etc. Forecasters are ambassadors
Climate of Columbus. Aaron Wilson. Byrd Polar & Climate Research Center State Climate Office of Ohio.
Climate of Columbus Aaron Wilson Byrd Polar & Climate Research Center http://bpcrc.osu.edu/greenteam Overview Historical Climatology Climate Change & Impacts Projected Changes Summary 2 Historical Climatology
Activity 2.2: Recognizing Change (Observation vs. Inference)
Activity 2.2: Recognizing Change (Observation vs. Inference) Teacher Notes: Evidence for Climate Change PowerPoint Slide 1 Slide 2 Introduction Image 1 (Namib Desert, Namibia) The sun is on the horizon
Country Presentation-Nepal
Country Presentation-Nepal Mt.Everest, Shiva Pd. Nepal, DHM South Asia Drought Monitor Workshop Dhaka Bangladesh 2 th April 215 Overview Brief Climatology Climate activities- DHM PPCR (Pilot Program for
The Colorado Drought : 2003: A Growing Concern. Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center.
The Colorado Drought 2001-2003: 2003: A Growing Concern Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu 2 2002 Drought History in Colorado
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: Historical Trends and Future Projections
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: Historical Trends and Future Projections Thomas R. Knutson Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory / NOAA, Princeton, NJ U.S.A. IOGP/JCOMM/WCRP Workshop September 25-27,
Climate modeling: 1) Why? 2) How? 3) What?
Climate modeling: 1) Why? 2) How? 3) What? Matthew Widlansky mwidlans@hawaii.edu 1) Why model the climate? Hawaii Fiji Sachs and Myhrvold: A Shifting Band of Rain 1 Evidence of Past Climate Change? Mean
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN TÂRGU- MURES (ROMANIA) FROM PERIOD
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN TÂRGU- MURES (ROMANIA) FROM PERIOD 1951-2010 O.RUSZ 1 ABSTRACT. Temperature and precipitation changes in Târgu Mures (Romania) from period 1951-2010. The analysis
ERTH 365 Homework #2: Hurricane Harvey. 100 points
ERTH 365 Homework #2: Hurricane Harvey 100 points Due by 6pm, Tuesday 30 October 2018, ELECTRONIC SUBMISSON BY EMAIL ONLY BY 6PM (send to klevey@sfsu.edu) (acceptable formats: MS Word, Google Doc, plain
Physical Features of Monsoon Asia. 192 Unit 7 Teachers Curriculum Institute 60 N 130 E 140 E 150 E 60 E 50 N 160 E 40 N 30 N 150 E.
50 N 60 E 70 E 80 E 90 E 100 E 60 N 110 E 120 E 130 E 140 E 150 E 50 N 160 E 40 N 40 N 30 N 60 E 30 N 150 E Tropic of Cancer 20 N Tropic of Cancer 20 N 10 N 10 N 0 Equator 0 Equator 10 S 10 S 0 500 1,000
Extreme Events and Climate Change
Extreme Events and Climate Change Amir AghaKouchak University of California, Irvine Email: amir.a@uci.edu Web: http://amir.eng.uci.edu/ Twitter: @AmirAghaKouchak Adam Luke University of California, Irvine
2003 Moisture Outlook
2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu Through 1999 Through 1999 Fort Collins Total Water
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: May 15, 2014 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: May 15, 2014 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com APRIL 2014 REVIEW Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average temperature for
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE
Operational event attribution
Operational event attribution Peter Stott, NCAR, 26 January, 2009 August 2003 Events July 2007 January 2009 January 2009 Is global warming slowing down? Arctic Sea Ice Climatesafety.org climatesafety.org
GEO 101, Feb 4, 2014 Finish isolines Atmosphere intro Variation in incoming solar radiation. Freezing rain is supercooled liquid water
GEO 101, Feb 4, 14 Finish isolines Atmosphere intro Variation in incoming solar radiation Freezing rain is supercooled liquid water Graupel is white because it has air trapped inside leet is more colorless
Drought in Southeast Colorado
Drought in Southeast Colorado Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu 1 Historical Perspective on Drought Tourism
Summary of Seasonal Normal Review Investigations CWV Review
Summary of Seasonal Normal Review Investigations CWV Review DESC 31 st March 2009 1 Contents Stage 1: The Composite Weather Variable (CWV) An Introduction / background Understanding of calculation Stage
Regional Impacts of Climate Change
Regional Impacts of Climate Change Antonio J Busalacchi World Climate Research Programme Outline Weather Extremes the New Normal Observed Changes in the Climate System Projections of Future Climate Change
Introduction. Observed Local Trends. Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones. Projections for the Philippines. Temperature Rainfall
PAGASA-DOST ntroduction Observed Local Trends Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones Projections for the Philippines Temperature Rainfall Climate Change ssue ncreased use of fossil fuel Global Warming
CLIMATE IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE ENHANCING CLIMATE RESILIENCY FOR MANITOBA INFRASTRUCTURE
CLIMATE IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE ENHANCING CLIMATE RESILIENCY FOR MANITOBA INFRASTRUCTURE Heather Auld, Neil Comer, Simon Eng, Erik Sparling Manitoba: Climate Impacts on Infrastructure - OUTLINE of TALK
A Review of the 2007 Water Year in Colorado
A Review of the 2007 Water Year in Colorado Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center, CSU Mike Gillespie Snow Survey Division, USDA, NRCS Presented at the 28 th Annual AGU Hydrology Days, March 26, 2008,
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 25, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 25, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales sroot@weatherbank.com MARCH 2016 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The March
1990 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Impacts Assessment
1990 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Impacts Assessment Although the variability of weather and associated shifts in the frequency and magnitude of climate events were not available from the
St Lucia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles St Lucia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
Historical and Projected Future Climatic Trends in the Great Lakes Region
Historical and Projected Future Climatic Trends in the Great Lakes Region Jeffrey A. Andresen Dept. of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences Michigan State University Outline Historical Trends Climatic
Fire Season Prediction for Canada, Kerry Anderson Canadian Forest Service
Fire Season Prediction for Canada, 2014 Kerry Anderson Canadian Forest Service 1 Introduction The Canadian Forest Service is now presenting monthly and seasonal forecast maps through the Canadian Wildland
Did Severe Rains and Flooding in May 2015 Affect Texas Poison Center Call Patterns?
Did Severe Rains and Flooding in May 2015 Affect Texas Poison Center Call Patterns? Mathias Forrester Epidemiologist Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) mathias.forrester@dshs.state.tx.us
What We Know about the Climate Change Hurricane Connection Some links are indisputable; others are more subtle, but the science is improving all the
What We Know about the Climate Change Hurricane Connection Some links are indisputable; others are more subtle, but the science is improving all the time By Michael E. Mann, Thomas C. Peterson, Susan Joy
The Climate of the Carolinas: Past, Present, and Future - Results from the National Climate Assessment
The Climate of the Carolinas: Past, Present, and Future - Results from the National Climate Assessment Chip Konrad Chris Fuhrmann Director of the The Southeast Regional Climate Center Associate Professor
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through
Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences University Of Illinois Urbana-Champaign snodgrss@illinois.edu
Ocean s Influence on Weather and Climate
Earth is often called the Blue Planet because so much of its surface (about 71%) is covered by water. Of all the water on Earth, about 96.5%, is held in the world s oceans. As you can imagine, these oceans
OVERVIEW OF IMPROVED USE OF RS INDICATORS AT INAM. Domingos Mosquito Patricio
OVERVIEW OF IMPROVED USE OF RS INDICATORS AT INAM Domingos Mosquito Patricio domingos.mosquito@gmail.com Introduction to Mozambique /INAM Introduction to AGRICAB/SPIRITS Objectives Material & Methods Results
Grenada. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
HAIDA GWAII CLIMATE ASSESSMENT 2010 Special Report for MIEDS Franc Pridoehl
HAIDA GWAII CLIMATE ASSESSMENT 2010 Special Report for MIEDS Franc Pridoehl INTRODUCTION Climatic conditions have varied considerably on Haida Gwaii over the past centuries and millennia (Hebda 2007).
Cape Verde. General Climate. Recent Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
YACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer
YACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer Mike Crimmins Assoc. Professor/Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Environmental Science The University of Arizona Yes, another climate tool for
Observed rainfall trends and precipitation uncertainty in the vicinity of the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa
SCIENTIFIC WORKSHOP 16-17 ΜΑΥ 2018 Nicosia, Cyprus Observed rainfall trends and precipitation uncertainty in the vicinity of the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa George Zittis, Associate Research
Karonga Climate Profile: Full Technical Version
Karonga Climate Profile: Full Technical Version Prepared by: University of Cape Town November 2017 For enquiries regarding this Climate Profile, please contact Lisa van Aardenne (lisa@csag.uct.ac.za) or
2016 Hurricane Season Preview
2016 Hurricane Season Preview Eric Uhlhorn, Ph.D. 1 2 Recap of 2015 Hurricane Season - El Niño played a significant role in activity - Atlantic activity was slightly below normal 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes,
Detecting Climate Change through Means and Extremes
Detecting Climate Change through Means and Extremes New Mexico Supercomputing Challenge Final Report April 6, 2016 Team 55 Los Alamos Middle School Team Member: Lillian Petersen Teacher: Adam Drew Mentor:
Science Standard 1: Students analyze monthly precipitation and temperature records, displayed in bar charts, collected in metric units (mm).
Title: Precipitation Patterns across the Globe NSF GK-12 Fellow: Terry Legg Type of Lesson: STEM Grade Level(s): 4 th - 7 th grade This activity can be tailored to older, more advanced students by having
Name Date Class. growth rings of trees, fossilized pollen, and ocean. in the northern hemisphere.
Lesson Outline LESSON 2 A. Long-Term Cycles 1. A(n) climate cycle takes much longer than a lifetime to complete. a. To learn about long-term climate cycles, scientists study natural records, such as growth
The scientific basis for climate change projections: History, Status, Unsolved problems
The scientific basis for climate change projections: History, Status, Unsolved problems Isaac Held, Princeton, Feb 2008 Katrina-like storm spontaneously generated in atmospheric model Regions projected
2011 Atlantic Hurricane Activity and Outlooks A Climate/ Historical Perspective
2011 Atlantic Hurricane Activity and Outlooks A Climate/ Historical Perspective Gerry Bell NOAA Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster Climate Prediction Center/ NWS Related Publications: Bell and Chelliah