NOAA s Strategy for Monitoring Earth s Climate System. John J Bates NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

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1 NOAA s Strategy for Monitoring Earth s Climate System John J Bates NOAA s National Climatic Data Center May 21, 2010

2 Understanding the various complex processes that make up Earth s system is a major scientific challenge.

3 From the bottom of the ocean to the top of the atmosphere, NOAA s instruments monitor Earth s climate system.

4 Observations and Data Quality GCOS and WCRP letter of 12 May 2010 International groups to evaluate Guidelines for product generation

5 Arrays of automated stations collect precise weather and climate data on land 3-wire weighing precipitation gauge with backup gauge inside a large wind fence with single alter. Satellite comms Relative Humidity (in test) Power Control Solar Radiation (Pyranometer) Three High-Precision Platinum Resistance Thermometers in Individual Ventilated Radiation Housings Datalogger Anemometer Ground Temperature Wetness Sensor Soil Moisture & Soil Temperature (in test)

6 Observations show rising global temperatures Temperatures measured on land and at sea for more than a century show that Earth s globally averaged surface temperature is experiencing a long-term warming trend.

7 NOAA maintains a global ocean observing network that monitors Earth s climate system

8 NOAA sponsors development of new observation technologies The Scarlet Knight: an unmanned glider with data-gathering capabilities that holds much promise for improving our understanding of the ocean and its role in climate and weather.

9 50 years of CO 2 data from Mauna Loa 388 ppm (2008) 318 ppm (1958) Mauna Loa Observatory on Hawai i 9

10 The complexity & variability of the carbon cycle makes climate change mitigation a challenging scientific issue CarbonTracker

11 The Rising Demand for Climate Services Commerce Coasts Recreation Ecosystems Hydropower Farming Wind Energy Private Sector

12 A NOAA Climate Service will advance critical aspects of climate science, and it will connect the threads of scientific understanding to user-driven requirements.

13 Satellite Climate Sensors - Introduction A February 2008 White House OSTP press release announced a plan and $74 million request in FY 2009 for NOAA to sustain the datasets from three key climate measurement capabilities: Total solar irradiance, measured by the Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS); Earth radiation budget data from the Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System sensor (CERES); and ozone vertical profile data from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb sensor (OMPS Limb) GAO Report dated May 2008: Environmental Satellites: Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity, recommended to the Secretaries of Commerce and Defense and the Administrator of NASA that they: Establish plans on whether and how to restore the climate and space sensors removed from the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program in cases where the sensors are warranted and justified This report describes NOAA s initial plan for restoring the climate capabilities removed from NPOESS For Official Use Only 13

14 Background (1 of 3) From January to June 2006, the NPOESS program underwent a Nunn- McCurdy Certification process that resulted in the program being restructured over the next two years The Nunn-McCurdy Congressional certification process was a Tri-Agency process The resulting Acquisition Decision Memorandum (ADM) of the Department of Defense (DoD) outlined the nature of the restructured Program De-manifested Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (ERBS), TSIS, Altimeter, Space Environment Sensor Suite (SESS), Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor (APS) and Survivability sensor (SUS) Directed NPOESS fly with Space Environment Monitor and CERES sensors instead of ERBS and SESS De-manifested the OMPS Limb sensor from both the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) and NPOESS 1330 satellite For Official Use Only 14

15 Background (2 of 3) In January 2007, NOAA and NASA drafted a white paper called Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals Described impacts of the NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on the climate program goals of NASA and NOAA Provided recommended approaches for recovering the impacted climate observations and related science In April 2007, NASA and NOAA announced a plan to restore OMPS-Limb to NPP In January 2008, NASA and NOAA selected the CERES Flight Model (FM) 5 sensor for flight on NPP In May 2008, the NPOESS tri-agency Executive Committee agreed to restore the Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) to NPOESS C1 A 2008 National Research Council (NRC) Report: Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft, recommended sustaining the following sensors considered relevant to Climate Science: Altimeter; CERES / ERBS; TSIS; APS; OMPS-Limb For Official Use Only 15

16 Background (3 of 3) In February 2010, the President s FY 2011 budget request for NOAA directed the NPOESS program to split into separate NOAA/NASA and DoD programs NOAA/NASA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) covers the afternoon (1330) orbit JPSS flies an NPP-like satellite bus DoD covers the early morning (0530) orbit NOAA manages the JPSS ground system For Official Use Only 16

17 Polar Program Evolution Historically POES DMSP MetOp Today DMSP DMSP FO Future MetOp JPSS POES DMSP 2 U.S. military DMSP 2 U.S. civilian POES DMSP: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program MetOp: Meteorological Operational Satellite Local Equatorial Crossing Time DMSP 2 U.S. military DMSP 1 U.S. civilian POES 1 European MetOp POES 1 U.S. civilian JPSS 1 U.S. military DMSP follow-on 1 European MetOp POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite JPSS: Joint Polar Satellite System (NOAA / NASA) For Official Use Only 17

18 For Official Use Only 18

19 Climate Sensor Studies This plan is based on studies conducted by NOAA to examine the feasibility, options, life cycle costs, and timing of sensor acquisition and launch schedules 2007 Aerospace Corporation sensor cost studies for climate sensor development 2008 Aerospace Corporation mission alternative studies on options for hosting climate sensors Re-manifested on NPOESS Free-flyer host, either single or multiple payloads Commercial rideshare (i.e., hosted on a Communications satellite already planned for launch) 2008/09 Technical feasibility and price of commercially available services, as either a data buy or hosted payload 10 studies awarded to 4 companies on all climate payloads Orbital Sciences Corp., Sierra Nevada Corp., Iridium Communications, Surrey Satellite Technology US 2009/10 Johns Hopkins University / Applied Physics Lab Independent Cost and Mission Analysis Studies For Official Use Only 19

20 Working Assumptions Glory mission will meet its goal design life of 5 years (3-year threshold) NPP launches in Sep/Oct 2011, 5-year mission life JPSS missions will use a smaller bus than NPOESS C-1 Primary bus can accommodate OMPS-Limb and CERES/ERBS TSIS will likely need to be accommodated through a rideshare or free-flyer mission within JPSS Program APS requires a determination of need for climate continuity, and will also need a different ride JPSS 1 launch readiness date Jan 2015, launches Oct 2016, 7-year duration JPSS 2 launch readiness date Jan 2018, launches Oct 2019, 7-year duration ERBS and TSIS will be procured in lots (first one with 2 follow-on options) OMPS-Limb will fly with OMPS-Nadir on JPSS 2 May also go on JPSS 1 if it can be delivered on an accelerated schedule For Official Use Only 20

21 For Official Use Only Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) Continuity Plan TSIS Sensor (LASP) For Official Use Only 21

22 Overview Mission Continuously monitors the sun's energy incident on Earth to address long-term climate change Helps to discriminate between natural and man-made causes of climate change Continues a 30-year climate data record Legacy Solar Irradiance records are maintained through multiple launches of Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) sensor Last ACRIM III was on ACRIMSAT, launched Dec 1999 The need for more precise measurement of the total and spectral components of solar radiation led to the development of TSIS, consisting of the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) and Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) SIM added irradiance measurements of different parts of the spectrum TIM increased the total solar accuracy of ACRIM Both launched by NASA on SORCE in 2003 Future TIM to be launched on Glory in 2010 TSIS-1 procurement from LASP ATP granted in 2009 for 2012 delivery TSIS may not fit on JPSS primary satellite, alternate flight options under study For Official Use Only 22

23 Continuity Requirements Climate data record continuity requires at least 1 TSIS on orbit at all times TIM on Glory mission is needed to provide continuity until TSIS 1 is launched TSIS can fly in almost any orbit TSIS 1 has a 5-year threshold lifetime, with 7-year goal Follow-on sensors require a 7-year lifetime Climate user community requires 1-year overlap between sensors TSIS is a stand alone sensor - does not require co-hosting with another sensor For Official Use Only 23

24 Calendar Year TSIS Planning Schedule For Official Use Only ACRIMSAT (ACRIM III) Launched December 20, 1999 SORCE (TIM & SIM) Requires extension to Oct 2016 to cover SIM gap Glory (TIM), Up to 6-yr life required to cover TIM gap TSIS-1 Begin Planning Authority to Proceed (May 2008) Sensor Delivery Because TSIS does not fit on JPSS-1, sensor delivery will be delayed from June 2012 to June 2013 to allow for instrument design and interface changes to accommodate selected platform (Geostationary or Low Earth Orbit) 15 mo I&T Free-Flyer or Rideshare Launch Ready NASA launch & sensor mission life Planning Sensor acquisition Satellite integration & test NOAA launch & sensor mission life Projected launch & Sensor mission life Satellite is operational beyond design life Key Events 24

25 Sensor Development Plan TSIS 1 Acquisition began in FY 2009 TSIS 2 Under development by LASP under contract to NASA, to deliver TSIS-1 by June 2012 Additional 12 months needed to allow for instrument design and interface changes to accommodate Geostationary or Low Earth Orbit platform JPSS Program will determine host mission, either geostationary or polar Acquisition of 2 additional sensors of the same design will be required for follow-on missions We are evaluating whether a competitive bid is the best approach Risks to Data Continuity There will be a SIM gap unless SORCE lasts to Oct 2016 There will be a TIM gap unless Glory lasts to Oct 2016 Glory mission has a 3-year threshold design life, 5-year goal Polar free-flyer or geostationary spacecraft risks are still unknown For Official Use Only 25

26 Calendar Year Climate Sensor Planning Schedule ACRIM III Jason-1 Aqua (CERES-4) For Official Use Only SORCE (TIM & SIM) OSTM (Jason-2) GLORY (TIM, APS-1) NPP (CERES-5, OMPS L-1) Jason JPSS Free-Flyer (TSIS-1) JPSS 1 (CERES-6) JPSS 2 (ERBS-1, OMPS L-2, TSIS-2) Jason-CS JPSS Free-Flyer (TSIS-2) NOAA launch & Sensor mission life NASA launch & Sensor mission life Launch Readiness Date Projected launch & Sensor mission life Satellite is operational beyond design life 26

27 CDR Project Functional Framework Management Board USGCRP Observations Management Structure Leveraging Resources / Collaboration Other Agencies GEOSS, CEOS Intl Data Programs Product Development Teams (CDRs, CIRs and Support) Experts in Instrument Characterization, Algorithms, Validation, Data Management, Observing System Performance Monitoring Applications, and Observing System Performance Monitoring Production of Near Real-time CDRs CDR Stewardship Processing of CDRs for Longterm Records Engaging User Community Climate Information Records Improved CDR and CIRs Design for Future Systems Modeling Monitoring Prediction Research 27

28 Thank You In the real world of science the greater challenge may be that of insuring the continuance of such a program John A. Eddy 28