Earth s Climate: the role of satellites for monitor, understand and forecast

Transcription

1 We need to now go beyond understanding natural systems alone into understanding how natural systems connect with human systems, Dr. Tom Karl, director of NOAA s National Climatic Data Center. Earth s Climate: the role of satellites for monitor, understand and forecast Stella M L Melo Canadian Space Agency (Policy Analyst) University of Toronto (Adjunct Professor)

2 Earth s Climate: the role of satellites for monitor, understand and forecast Satellites: moving from curiosity to a necessity From meteorology to climate: a question of time scales Climate: a critical information for several sectors of our society Space: a critical component of the system with complexity level requiring international coordination A wealth of opportunities caring interesting challenges Towards an international Climate Observing Architecture

3 Satellites: moving from curiosity to a necessity History: The first weather satellite, Vanguard 2, was launched on February 17, It was designed to measure cloud cover and resistance, but a poor axis of rotation kept it from collecting a notable amount of useful data. TIROS-1, launched by NASA on April 1, 1960 open the weather satellite era. TIROS paved the way for the NASA Nimbus program. Alouette-1, the first Canadian scientific satellite launched on September 29, It was designed to study the ionosphere in the North region. The practical result was the realization that a satellite communications system would be the best way to provide a communications infrastructure for all of Canada, including the North.

4 Satellites: moving from curiosity to a necessity Space based component of WMO Global Observing System a snapshot in time note that this scenario change really fast! Could you imagine your life without satellites????

5 From meteorology to climate: a question of time scales WMO Wikipedia: The weather satellite is a type of satellite that is primarily used to monitor the weather and climate of the Earth.

6 Climate: a critical information for several sectors of our society An emerging theme from the World Climate Research Program Open Science Conference: The need for actionable science. Decision-makers including water providers, farmers, insurance companies, oil exploration companies and many more need climate and other scientific information to guide decisions. Future water availability in a region, for example, may guide crop selection one year, or siting decisions for a new water treatment plant that will be operational for decades. David Behar San Francisco Public Utilities Commission

7 Climate and Public Health Madeleine C. Thomson, IRI, USA WCRP Open Climate conference 2011 Meningitis in Africa: MERIT initiative

8 GEO, GCOS, GEOSS. GEO: The Group on Earth Observations is coordinating efforts to build a Global Earth Observation System of Systems, or GEOSS. GEO was launched in response to calls for action by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development and by the G8 (Group of Eight) leading industrialized countries. GCOS: The Global Climate Observing System is intended to be a long-term, user-driven operational system capable of providing the comprehensive observations required for : Monitoring the climate system, Detecting and attributing climate change, Assessing impacts of, and supporting adaptation to, climate variability and change, Application to national economic development, Research to improve understanding, modelling and prediction of the climate system. GCOS addresses the total climate system including physical, chemical and biological properties, and atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, hydrologic, and cryospheric components. GCOS is a joint undertaking of WMO, IOC, UNESCO, UNEP, ICSU. Its goal is to provide comprehensive information on the total climate system, involving a multidisciplinary range of physical, chemical and biological properties, and atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, cryospheric and terrestrial processes. It includes both in situ and remote sensing components, with its space based components coordinated by the CEOS and the Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS). GCOS is intended to meet the full range of national and international requirements for climate and climate-related observations. As a system of climate-relevant observing systems, it constitutes, in aggregate, the climate observing component of the GEOSS.

9 GCOS is also a component of the Global Framework (Prof. A. Simmons, GFCS II side event, Cg-XVI, 19 May 2011) Users: government, private and research sectors, covering agriculture, water, health, construction, disaster reduction, environment, tourism, transport, etc Services related to past and present climate User Interface Services related to future climate Climate Services Information System Observations and Monitoring Research, Modelling and Prediction April 2012 CAPACITY BUILDING Slide presented at the CEOS WGClimate, Asheville, NC, USA 9

10 GCOS: Continuous Improvement and Assessment Cycle April 2012 Slide presented at the CEOS WGClimate, Asheville, NC, USA 10

11 Essential Climate Variable GCOS concept The 50 GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) (2010) are required to support the work of the UNFCCC and the IPCC. All ECVs are technically and economically feasible for systematic observation. It is these variables for which international exchange is required for both current and historical observations. Additional variables required for research purposes are not included in this table. Domain Atmospheric (over land, sea and ice) GCOS Essential Climate Variables Surface: Air temperature, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Pressure, Precipitation, Surface radiation budget. Upper-air: Temperature, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties, Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance). Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, and other long-lived greenhouse gases, Ozone and Aerosol, supported by their precursors. Oceanic Surface: Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Surface current, Ocean colour, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Phytoplankton. Sub-surface: Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Oxygen, Tracers. Terrestrial River discharge, Water use, Groundwater, Lakes, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Ice sheets, Permafrost, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Above-ground biomass, Soil carbon, Fire disturbance, Soil moisture.

12 WMO Global Observing System - The coordinated system of methods and facilities for making meteorological and other environmental observations on a global scale in support of all WMO Programmes; - The system is comprised of operationally reliable surface-based and space-based subsystems. - The GOS comprises observing facilities on land, at sea, in the air and in outer space. These facilities are owned and operated by the Member countries of WMO each of which undertakes to meet certain responsibilities in the agreed global scheme so that all countries can benefit from the consolidated efforts.

13 Space: a critical component of the system with complexity level requiring international coordination Climate: several Coordination bodies, International Programs, International initiatives, etc exists; Space infra-structure is expensive, takes long to develop, last a relatively short time, and requires highly specialized knowledge to build, maintain and update; No Country (or Union of Countries) can do it alone.

14 Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Focus on the satellite component CEOS was established in September 1984 in response to a recommendation from a Panel of Experts on Remote Sensing from Space that was set up under the aegis of the G7 Economic Summit of Industrial Nations Working Group on Growth, Technology and Employment. Participating in the first meeting were representatives of eight space agencies: CCRS, CNES, ESA, INPE, ISRO, NASA, NASDA and NOAA. Its initial scope was technical coordination and harmonization of Earth observations to make it easier for the user community to access and utilize data. As such, it focused on such work as interoperability, common data formats, inter-calibration of instruments, and common validation and intercomparison of products. The three original, primary objectives of CEOS were: 1) To optimize benefits of space-borne Earth observations through cooperation of its Members in mission planning and in development of compatible data products, formats, services, applications and policies; 2) To serve as a focal point for international coordination of space-related Earth observation activities; 3) To exchange policy and technical information to encourage complementarity and compatibility of observation and data exchange systems.

15 WMO s SCOPE-CM Initiative Coordinated international network to produce Climate Data Records (CDRs) from multi-agency mission data in operational environment addressing GCOS requirements; Current Participants of the SCOPE-CM Network; Operational Satellite operators: NOAA, JMA, (CMA), EUMETSAT Stakeholder: WMO Space Programme, GCOS, CEOS, CGMS/GSICS, WCRP/GEWEX, ESA (observer) Established structure: Executive Panel and 5 pilot projects

16 WMO View for next generation of a Global Observing System Still need to transform climate data into climate informati on! SCOPE-CM: Conceptual View of End-to-End Provision of ECV CDRs

17 A wealth of opportunities caring interesting challenges (1/2) For the space-based GOS, the new vision (2025) calls upon enhancements and additions in comparison with the current baseline. It includes, as operational components: High-resolution multispectral Vis/IR imagery on operational geostationary satellites IR hyperspectral sensors on operational geostationary satellites Lightning detection from operational geostationary satellites High-resolution multispectral Vis/IR imagery on mid-am, pm and early morning orbit MW sounding on mid-am, pm and early morning orbit Hyperspectral IR sounding on mid-am, pm and early morning orbit Operational radio occultation sounding constellation Ocean altimetry missions providing accurate reference measurements and global coverage Ocean surface wind missions with scatterometry and microwave imagery Global precipitation measurement by active (radars) and passive (MW imagers) sensors Earth radiation budget measurements including total solar irradiance Atmospheric composition including UV sounding from geostationary and am/pm LEO Specific imagery for ocean colour and vegetation monitoring Dual-angle view imagery High-resolution IR/VIS land surface imaging Synthetic Aperture Radar observation Space Weather monitoring from geostationary and LEO

18 A wealth of opportunities caring interesting challenges (2/2) In addition, the WMO GOS Vision (2025) calls upon Operational pathfinders and technology demonstrators e.g.: Visible/Infrared Imagery in Highly Elliptical Orbit(HEO) for Polar Regions Doppler wind lidar, Low-frequency microwave missions Geostationary microwave Geostationary high-resolution narrow-band imagers Gravimetric sensors Implementing the Vision also requires: Enhanced data sharing, interoperability and integration Data homogeneity and traceability Enhanced cooperation and coordination on global long-term planning Transition of relevant R&D missions to an operational status to ensure long-term sustained observation of Essential Climate Variables.

19 Towards an international Climate Observing Architecture Use of satellite data: moving from Research AND operation to Research TO operation; Clear need for a Global Observing System beyond the weather Several initiatives are in planning or early implementation phase. Coordination is desired but remains challenging Climate observation systems requires ambitious resources; Needs of each Country are different; Importance of climate is different at different political agendas; Users needs still can not be fulfilled at the desired level: Society needs climate information and we are still at the data collection phase Climate models carry large degree of uncertainty,

20 We need to now go beyond understanding natural systems alone into understanding how natural systems connect with human systems, Dr. Tom Karl, director of NOAA s National Climatic Data Center. Although there may be a gap today between data needs and data availability, that gap is rich with opportunity. There s a business case to be made here. On the one side are the people who create and 'own' the data, who may be government scientists, and on the other side are users... In between there s the chance for private companies to take the data and use it to deliver more detailed, relevant information to decision-makers who need it. Dr. Sharon Hays, Vice President of CSC s Office of Science and Engineering.

21 TRF Corrections Now Applied by ACRIM Team...

22 ... And PREMOS Data Are Recently Available