Estimation of Short Term Shelter Needs FEMA Earthquake HAZUS Model
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1 July 2017 ESRI International Users Conference Estimation of Short Term Shelter Needs FEMA Earthquake HAZUS Model Techniques & Results Douglas Schenk / Sampa Patra GIS Group / Information Services Division County of Santa Clara
2 Planning for Estimated Shelter Needs Social Services Agency request for assistance. Required to plan for shelter capacity. Future earthquake location and severity is not certain. The need to plan capacity is certain.
3 HAZUS PARAMETERS HAZUS contains DEFAULT parameters which can be used in a standardized methodology to determine the estimated short term shelter needs. HAZUS model has pre-defined groundmotion estimates that can be used or you can add refined scenarios from the USGS. No adjustment of parameters was made for our study.
4 SCENARIOS Historic Epicenter Event Source event Arbitrary event Probabilistic Hazard User-supplied Hazards USGS Shake Map Historic Epicenter Event Arbitrary event USGS Shake Map
5 SCENARIOS USGS ShakeMap Scenario Category Magnitude Scenario USGS1 7.1 N. San Andreas; Santa Cruz Mountain USGS1 7.2 N. San Andreas Peninsula USGS1 6.9 Hayward-Rodgers Creek; Hayward S USGS1 6.9 Calaveras North USGS1 7 Hayward-Rodgers Creek; Hayward N + S USGS2 7.9 N. San Andreas; Offshore + North Coast + Peninsula + Santa Cruz Mountain USGS2 7.5 N. San Andreas; Peninsula + Santa Cruz Mountain USGS3 7.3 HRC+HS+HN+RC USGS3 7.8 SAF+SAP+SAN+SAO USGS3 7.9 SAF+SAS+SAP+SAN+SAO We choose many scenarios to do the sensitivity analysis and could compare with different results. Historical- Hazus Scenario Category Magnitude Scenario Historical - HAZUS 6.89 N. San Andreas; Santa Cruz Mountain Historical - HAZUS 7.8 N. San Andreas Peninsula Historical - HAZUS 6.89 Hayward-Rodgers Creek; Hayward S Historical - HAZUS 7.8 Calaveras North Random Scenario Category Magnitude Scenario Random 8 Hayward Fault Random 6.8 N. San Andreas; Santa Cruz Mountain Random 7.8 San Andreas Fault - Middle Random 7.5 San Andreas Fault - South Random 7.2 Calaveras Fault Random 7.4 Calaveras Fault Random 7.8 Calaveras Fault South Random 6 Sargent Fault
6 SCENARIOS
7 SCENARIOS / RESULTS Category Magnitude Name Latitude Longitude Depth Shelter Needs Comment Reference 1 Top Five 7.1 N. San Andreas; Santa Cruz Mountain km 73 (1) 2 Top Five 7.2 N. San Andreas Peninsula km 202 (1) 3 Top Five 6.9 Hayward-Rodgers Creek; Hayward S Km 142 (1) 4 Top Five 6.9 Calaveras North Km 100 (1) 5 Top Five 7 Hayward-Rodgers Creek; Hayward N + S Km 173 (1) 6 Other Five 6.4 Calaveras Central km 31 (1) 7 Other Five 6.5 Calaveras Central + South km 51 (1) 8 Other Five 6.5 Monte Vista-Shannon km 456 (1) 9 Other Five 7 Zayante-Vergeles km 16 (1) 10 Other Five 7 Greenville km 3 (1) 11 Historical - HAZUS 6.89 Lomaprieta1989_historic Km 2,607 (2) 12 Historical - HAZUS 7.8 CA1906_historic Km 709 (3) 13 Historical -USGS 6.89 Lomaprieta1989_shakemap ,711 (2) 14 Historical - USGS 7.8 CA1906_shakemap ,128 (3) 15 Random 8 Hayward Fault Km 15, Random 6.8 San Andreas Fault - North Km 2, Random 7.8 San Andreas Fault - Middle Km 16, Random 7.5 San Andreas Fault - South Km Random 7.2 Calaveras Fault Km 4, Random 7.4 Calaveras Fault Km 1, Random 7.8 Calaveras Fault South Km 1, Random 6 Sargent Fault Km 123
8 Majority of the scenarios are for 0 to 2000 shelter need RESULTS Shelter Need Calculated by Hazus Magnitude Shelter Need USGS1 USGS2 USGS3 Historical - HAZUS Historical -USGS Random Three Clusters (0 to 2000, 8000 to & 14,000 to 16,000 population)
9 Model Adjustments Contractor Parameter Adjustments & Results They updated the Hazus default general building stock data with the County s tax assessor data. They added NEHRP soils and liquefaction susceptibility data to the analysis. Scenario 100-Year Shaking from Earthquakes Number of Persons Requiring Short- Term Shelter 9, Year Shaking from Earthquakes San Andreas ShakeMap Scenario 34,220 3,742 Calaveras ShakeMap Scenario 805 Hayward ShakeMap Scenario 4,403
10 Compare Contractor Parameter Adjustments & Results with county s default parameter Scenario 100-Year Shaking from Earthquakes For 100 & 500 probabilistic hazard Number of Persons scenario Requiring Short- Term Shelter (by Tetra Tech) Number of Persons Requiring Short- Term Shelter (by SCC employee) Difference 9,185 5,480 3,705 (67.60%) 500-Year Shaking from Earthquakes 34,220 20,316 13,904 (68.43%)
11 MODEL VALIDATION No known location where estimated short-term shelter outputs are compared to actual shelter needs. Literature review and inquiries of Red Cross identified the following two U.S. events: Northridge 1994 Napa 2014 Are there other data points available? Has FEMA published empirical comparisons?
12 MODEL VALIDATION 1994 Northridge Earthquake Sheltering organizations had opened 23 congregate shelters by 9:00am on January 18 with 3,600 evacuees provided support in one night and 6,000 meals served. By the end of the second night, peak demand for shelter space was over 20,000 people and exceeded shelter capacity by approximately 13,000. On January 20, demand for shelter space still exceeded capacity by about 4,000. It was not until January 21 that shelter capacity exceeded the demand. Estimated Shelter Demand HAZUS data Deterministic: Historical Epicenter 5672 Non-Traditional Shelter Case Studies, American Red Cross, December 31, 2011 accessed on December 22, 2014 at: Estimated Shelter Demand USGS shaking intensity NorthRidge Experienced Shelter Demand American Red Cross 12,983 16,906 20,000+
13 MODEL VALIDATION 2014 Napa Six mobile homes at Napa Valley Mobile Home Park burned to the ground, officials said. Thirty-three buildings in the city of Napa were red-tagged as of 5 p.m., and numerous others were yellow-tagged, which means people were being granted only limited access. Los Angeles Times August 24, 2014 accessed at: on 4/7/2017 Estimated Shelter Demand HAZUS data Estimated Shelter Demand USGS shaking intensity Shakemap nc Experienced Shelter Demand American Red Cross Per Red Cross utilization database N/A
14 CONCLUSION / LIMITATIONS Can HAZUS be used without modification to estimate Short-Term Shelter Needs? Is there more work to do to catalog estimated versus actual needs? What are required modifications, if any, to HAZUS model inputs?
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