Severe Dust Storm Events Validation

Transcription

1 Annex: Severe Dust Storm Events Validations Severe Dust Storm Events Validation The weather processes of severe dust storms affecting Asia since 2002 were selected to synoptically assess CMA CUACE/Dust in terms of forecasting performance, which shows a great strength that this Model boasts in this connection. Severe Dust Storm Events from 18th to 22nd Mar.2002 Severe dust storm events were observed at 24 meteorological stations in China, covering about 170 square kilometers and affecting most regions of North China and. One hundred and fifty million people fell victim to the events with nine lives lost in Inner Mongolia. Beijing was also attacked by sand blowing & surface dust weather. (Fig.7-1 and Fig. 7-2) Fig. 7-1 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 14:00 on 20 th Mar.2002 (BJT, 1

2 Fig.7-2 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 14:00 on 22 nd Mar (BJT, marked in purple) and CUACE Dust Concentration Forecast ( colour filling part) Severe Dust Storm Events from 26th to 28th Mar Severe dust events were observed at 11 stations in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Gansu province of China with 22 people missing in Sonid Left Banner of Inner Mongolia and more than 1200 flights delayed. Beijing also suffered from the severe dust weather (Fig.7-3 and Fig.7-4). Fig.7-3 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 14:00 on 27 th Mar (BJT, 2

3 Fig.7-4 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 14:00 on 28th Mar (BJT, Dust Storm Events from 9th to 12th Mar There was dust weather in most regions of Southern Mongolia Northwest China and North China. Some parts of these regions were assaulted by severe dust storms(fig.7-5). Fig.7-5 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 11:00 on 9 th Mar. 2006(BJT, marked in purple) and CUACE Dust Concentration Forecast (color filling part) 3

4 Sand and Dust Storm processes from 6th to 9th Apr There was sand and dust weather in most regions of Southern Mongolia, Northwest China and North China. Some parts of these regions were assaulted by severe dust storms. Due to dust upward transportation, South Korea and southern Japan were also attacked by surface dust weather. CUACE model forecasted the dust storm process accurately (Fig.7-6). Fig.7-6 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 14:00 on 8 th Apr ( BJT, marked in purple) and CUACE Dust Concentration Forecast (color filling part) Severe sand and Dust Storm processes from 30th Mar. to 2nd Apr The most severe dust storm weather process in 2007 was observed at 11 meteorological stations in China. More than 700 thousand square kilometers of land in North China was subject to sand hazard with 880 thousand hectares of cultivated land destroyed, which had a direct impact on 6.3 million Chinese people. And the situation was aggravated by the surface dust weather in the Yangtze River Delta region (Fig.7-7 and Fig.7-8). Fig.7-7 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 14:00 on 30 th Mar (BJT, 4

5 Fig.7-8 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 14:00 on 31 st Mar (BJT, Severe Dust Storm Events from 29th Feb. to 2nd Mar There was dust weather in West China. Some parts of the region were assaulted by severe dust storms. Due to dust upward transportation, North China and Huang-Huai area were also attacked by surface dust weather (Fig.7-9). Fig.7-9 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 11:00 on 1 st Mar (BJT, marked in purple) and CUACE Dust Concentration Forecast (color filling part) Severe Dust Strom Events from 13th Mar. to 16th Mar As the chart shows, CUACE/Dust Model forecasted the dust weather in Northwest China and Northeast China accurately (Fig.7-10). 5

6 Fig.7-10 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 11:00 on 14th Mar (BJT, marked in purple) and CUACE Dust Concentration Forecast (colour filling part) Severe Dust Storm Events from 19th Mar to 22nd Mar On19th March, a severe dust storm was reported in Northwest China. Then as the cold air moved southward, most regions of East China and Central China suffered from sand blowing & surface dust weather. As shown in the figures, the model forecasted the dust storm processes in West Inner Mongolia, East China and Central China accurately (Fig.7-11 and Fig.7-12). Fig.7-11 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 14:00 on 19th Mar (BJT, 6

7 Fig.7-12 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 08:00 on 20th Mar (BJT, marked in purple ) and CUACE Dust Concentration Forecast (color filling part) Severe Dust Storm Events from 8th to 11th Mar From 8th Mar to 11th Mar. 2013, dust storms appeared in Northwest China. And then caused by dust upward long-distance transportation, sand blowing & surface dust weather occurred in North China. All in all, CUACE model would have an accurate prediction of surface wind & dust and dust concentration (Fig.7-13). Fig.7-13 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 14:00 9th Mar. 2013(BJT, No.1 for blowing sand or floating dust, No.2 for dust storm, No 3 for sever dust storm) and CUACE Dust Concentration Forecast Valid time at 14:00 9th Mar from 08:00 7th Mar (BJT, color filling part) Severe Dust Storm Events from 23rd Apr to 24th Apr From 23rd Apr to 24th Apr. 2015, most regions of eastern Xinjiang and north-western Gansu province were blanketed by a severe dust storm with some areas suffering from zero visibility. CUACE 7

8 model had made an accurate prediction of dust concentration and scope (Fig.7-14 and Fig.7-15). Especially for 12 hours forecast of 08 on 23rd Apr., High concentration region forecasted by CUACE model coincided closely with the dust & severe dust region indicated by surface observation. Fig.7-14 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 20:00 9th Mar. 2013(BJT, No.1 for blowing sand or floating dust, No.2 for dust storm, No 3 for severe dust storm) and CUACE Dust Concentration Forecast Valid time at 20:00 23th Apr 2014 from 08:00 22th Apr. 2014(BJT, color filling part) Fig.7-15 Observations of SDS from the surface meteorological stations at 20:00 on 23rd Apr. 2014(BJT, No.1 for blowing sand or floating dust, No.2 for dust storm, No 3 for severe dust storm) and CUACE Dust Concentration Forecast Valid time at 20:00 23th Apr 2014 from 08:00 23th Apr (BJT, color filling part) 8