INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION

Transcription

1 WAFSOPSG/6-REPORT SIXTH MEETING OF THE WORLD AREA FORECAST SYSTEM OPERATIONS GROUP (WAFSOPSG/6) Dakar, Senegal, 21 to 24 March 2011 INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION

2 The designation and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of ICAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

3 History of the Meeting i-1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of WAFSOPSG decisions... i-3 List of WAFSOPSG conclusions... i-4 Agenda Item 1: Opening of the meeting Place and duration Attendance Chairman and officers of the Secretariat Agenda Item 2: Organizational matters Adoption of working arrangements Adoption of the agenda Agenda Item 3: Follow-up of WAFSOPSG/5 conclusions Detailed follow-up Agenda Item 4: Review of ICAO provisions related to WAFS Review of the ANP/FASID procedures Draft Amendment 76 to Annex 3 related to WAFS Agenda Item 5: Operation of the WAFS WAFS management report ISCS broadcast Other issues related to the operation and implementation of the WAFS Agenda Item 6: Development of the WAFS Improved GRIB 2 forecasts for convective clouds, icing and turbulence Visualization of WAFS forecasts Migration plan to accommodate the NextGen/SESAR programmes

4 i-2 WAFSOPSG/6 Agenda Item 7: Long-term planning of the WAFS implementation Long-term planning of the WAFS implementation Agenda Item 8: Future work programme Future work programme Agenda Item 9: Any other business Date and venue of the WAFSOPSG/7 meeting Appendix A List of participants... A-1 Appendix B Draft regional procedures in the ANP/FASID... B-1 Appendix C Draft amendment to Annex 3... C-1 Appendix D Criteria for access to SADIS FTP/WIFS for the ASIA/PAC Region... D-1 Appendix E Proposed latitude and longitude to define the corner coordinates of SIGWX charts (WAFS forecasts in chart form)... E-1 Appendix F Prioritization of GRIB2 data... F-1 Appendix G WAFS long term plan for years G-1 Appendix H Terms of reference... H-1 Appendix I Deliverables of the WAFSOPSG... I-1

5 History of the Meeting i-3 LIST OF WAFSOPSG DECISIONS Decision 6/1 Follow-up of the WAFSOPSG/5 conclusions Decision 6/14 WAFS Gridded Icing Forecasts Decision 6/17 Visualization of the WAFS gridded data sets for icing, turbulence and CB clouds Decision 6/20 WAFS long-term plan Decision 6/21 Update of the work programme of the WAFSOPSG

6 i-4 WAFSOPSG/6 Conclusion 6/2 LIST OF WAFSOPSG CONCLUSIONS Amendment to WAFS-related regional procedures in the ANP/FASID Conclusion 6/3 Amendment to Annex 3 regarding WAFS Conclusion 6/4 Criteria for the access to the Internet based services (SADIS FTP/WIFS) for the Asia and Pacific (APAC) Region Conclusion 6/5 Implementation of enhanced WAFS performance indicators Conclusion 6/6 Conclusion 6/7 Amendment to Annex concerning the latitude and longitude coordinates for the corner WAFS forecasts in chart form Ad hoc working group to consider re-transmission protocols/policies for SIGWX and GRIB2 datasets Conclusion 6/8 Guidance for handling WAFS SIGWX correction messages Conclusion 6/9 Amendment to Annex Conclusion 6/10 Prioritization of GRIB2 data over GRIB1 WAFS data Conclusion 6/11 Conclusion 6/12 Conclusion 6/13 Proposed re-introduction of surface fronts as an element of WAFS SIGWX forecasts in Annex Guidance on the Interpretation of the New Gridded WAFS Forecasts for CB Clouds, Icing and Turbulence Training Requirements for the New Gridded WAFS Forecasts for CB Cloud, Icing and Turbulence Conclusion 6/15 Development and use of WAFS gridded forecasts Conclusion 6/16 Conclusion 6/18 Users requirements concerning WAFS forecasts for icing and turbulence Removal of trial forecast label from the WAFS gridded data sets for icing, turbulence and CB clouds Conclusion 6/19 Global ATM concept

7 Report on Agenda Item Agenda Item 1: Opening of the meeting 1.1 Place and duration The sixth meeting of the World Area Forecast System Operations Group (WAFSOPSG) was held in the Western and Central African Office (WACAF) Regional Office, Dakar, Senegal, 21 to 24 March The meeting was opened by Mr. Mam Sait Jallow, the ICAO Regional Director, at 1000 hours on 21 March The meeting was closed at 1530 hours on 24 March Attendance The list of participants is given in Appendix A. 1.3 Chairman and the officers of the Secretariat The Chairman of the group Mr. Dorinel Visoiu (Romania), presided over the meeting throughout its duration Mr. Raul Romero, Technical Officer, Meteorology from ICAO Headquarters, was the Secretary of the meeting, assisted by Mr. Akoa Okossi, Regional Officer, Meteorology, ICAO WACAF Regional Office, Dakar.

8 Report on Agenda Item Agenda Item 2: Organizational matters 2.1: Adoption of working arrangements The meeting adopted appropriate working arrangements.

9 Report on Agenda Item Agenda Item 2: Organizational matters 2.2: Adoption of the agenda The following agenda was adopted: Agenda Item 1: Opening of the meeting Agenda Item 2: Organizational matters 2.1: Adoption of working arrangements 2.2: Adoption of the agenda Agenda Item 3: Follow-up of WAFSOPSG/5 conclusions Agenda Item 4: Review of ICAO provisions related to WAFS 4.1: Review of ANP/FASID procedures 4.2: Draft Amendment 76 to Annex 3 related to WAFS Agenda Item 5: Operation of the WAFS 5.1: WAFS management report 5.2: ISCS broadcast 5.3: Other issues related to the operation and implementation of the WAFS Agenda Item 6: Development of the WAFS 6.1: Improved GRIB 2 forecasts for convective clouds, icing and turbulence 6.2: Visualization of WAFS forecasts

10 2.2-2 Report on Agenda Item : Migration plan to accommodate the NextGen/SESAR programmes Agenda Item 7: Long-term planning of WAFS implementation Agenda Item 8: Future work programme Agenda Item 9: Any other business

11 Report on Agenda Item Agenda Item 3: Follow-up of WAFSOPSG/5 conclusions 3.1 The group recalled that the WAFSOPSG/5 Meeting had formulated twelve conclusions and eight decisions. No follow-up action was required on decisions; therefore, they were not addressed in this context. 3.2 The group noted that action was completed on all of the conclusions except for Conclusion 5/11 related to guidance on the intended use of gridded world area forecast system (WAFS) forecasts for cumulonimbus (CB) clouds, icing and turbulence in flight documentation. The group noted that, except for the icing forecast guidance produced in gridded format by the world area forecast centre (WAFC) for use in flight planning for extended range operations by twin-engined aeroplanes (ETOPS), action related to this task was outstanding due to a dependency on changes of the visualization which will be addressed in the future by States or commercial vendors since they are best suited as the developers and providers of visualized products derived from the WAFS gridded forecast data sets. 3.3 The group formulated the following decision: Decision 6/1 Follow-up of the WAFSOPSG/5 conclusions That, the follow-up action on the WAFSOPSG/5 conclusions be considered complete except for Conclusion 5/11.

12 Report on Agenda Item Agenda Item 4: Review of ICAO provisions related to WAFS 4.1: Review of ANP/FASID procedures The group recalled that it was tasked to review the world area forecast system (WAFS)-related procedures contained in the air navigation plan/facilities and services implementation document (ANP/FASID) at every meeting. In this regard, the group reviewed these procedures (Appendix B to this report refers). It was noted that it was necessary to make changes to clearly point out that the WAFS was responsible for making available the forecasts and to change FTP by Internet-based services to improve clarity wherever they were referred in the ANP FASID. Therefore, the group formulated the following conclusion: Conclusion 6/2 Amendment to the WAFS-related regional procedures in the ANP/FASID That, the Secretariat forward the WAFS-related regional procedures as shown in Appendix B to this report to the ICAO Regional Offices concerned for onward transmission to States for comment, as necessary, with a view to their prompt inclusion in the ANP/FASID.

13 Report on Agenda Item Agenda Item 4: Review of ICAO provisions related to WAFS 4.2: Draft Amendment 76 to Annex 3 related to WAFS The group recalled that, in view of the three-year amendment cycle of Annex 3- Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation, it was expected to review WAFS-related amendments thereto at every second World Area Forecast System Operations Group (WAFSOPSG) meeting. In this regard the Secretariat had prepared a draft amendment to Annex 3 based on the progress made by the group, which related to: a) the introduction of enabling clauses for the provision of concatenated route-specific wind/temperature forecasts (Conclusion 4/19 refers); b) the addition of wind and temperature data for flight level (FL) 410 (175 hpa) to the grid point forecasts prepared by the world area forecast centres (WAFC) (ANC, final review of Amendment 75 to Annex 3 refers); c) the addition of geopotential altitude data for FL 270 (350 hpa) and FL 410 (175 hpa) to the grid point forecasts prepared by the WAFCs; d) the removal of the note to Appendix 2 paragraph 1.2.2; and e) the revision of latitude and longitude coordinates for the corners of charts generated from the digital forecasts provided by the WAFCs, for fixed areas of coverage as shown in Appendix 8, Figures A8-1, A8-2 and A The group reviewed the draft amendment in Appendix B to this report and formulated the following conclusion: Conclusion 6/3 Amendment to Annex 3 Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation concerning WAFS related issues RSPP That, the proposal to amend Annex 3 Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation given in Appendix C to this report be included as part of Amendment 76 to Annex 3.

14 Agenda Item 5: Operation of the WAFS 5.1: WAFS management report Report on Agenda Item The group took note of the WAFS management report which had been prepared by the WAFC London and WAFC Washington Provider States in response to action called for by Conclusion 1/3. It was noted that the report contained an Executive Summary followed by a full management report including sections on Progress on the development of the WAFS and Developmental or operational difficulties with the WAFS. The group reviewed the management report, noted its content, discussed related issues and expressed satisfaction with the information provided.

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16 Agenda Item 5: Operation of the WAFS 5.2: ISCS broadcast Report on Agenda Item The group discussed ongoing issues concerning the global relationship between the Internet-based WAFS Internet File Service (WIFS), the satellite distribution system for information relating to air navigation (SADIS) file transfer protocol (FTP) and secure SADIS FTP WAFS data delivery mechanisms. In this regard, the group noted that the termination of the satellite broadcast by the international satellite communications system (ISCS) Provider State in June 2012 and the operation of its replacement service (WIFS). The focus over the next year would be the transition of ISCS users from the satellite-based service to the new Internet-based service. The group also noted that the SADIS Provider State would continue to provide WAFS data via satellite broadcast over SADIS 2G until at least 2015, as well as continuing to provide the SADIS FTP service until November 2011 after running it in parallel for at least one year with its replacement service - Secure SADIS FTP. The Secure SADIS FTP service currently has no planned end date. Since these systems (WIFS and Secure SADIS FTP Service) do not use identical access protocols, nor do they have identical folder structures, the group reviewed the differences in the Internet-based services. Regarding the backup options available, it was consider essential that users have pre-arranged appropriate service accounts directly with the contingent Service Provider. Regarding the planning and operation of the SADIS and ISCS/WIFS, some controls were proposed which should be based on pre-existing arrangements described in the Regional Air Navigation Plans (ANP). Finally, the group reviewed the criteria for the access to the Internet-based services (SADIS FTP/WIFS/ Secure SADIS FTP Service) for the Asia and Pacific (APAC) Region due to its unique geographical position (i.e. within the satellite footprints of SADIS and ISCS). The group noted that authorized access considerations were already reflected in the Regional Air Navigation Plans of all ICAO Regions. However, the group felt that the criteria for the access to the Internet-based services (SADIS FTP/WIFS/Secure SADIS FTP Service) for the APAC Region, especially for those States on the border of the ISCS and SADIS satellite footprints, deserved further assessment and tasked the Secretariat, in coordination with the WAFCs, to undertake such assessment. Therefore the group formulated the following conclusion: Conclusion 6 /4 Criteria for the access to the Internet based services (SADIS FTP/WIFS) for the Asia and Pacific (APAC) Region That, the ASIA/PAC Basic ANP and FASID, Volumes I and II be amended by the Secretariat in coordination with the WAFC Provider States to clearly specify the criteria for the access to the Internet-based services (SADIS FTP/WIFS/ Secure SADIS FTP), in light of the global coverage of the public Internet. Note. The intent is that the operational access to OPMET data (including WAFS) should be through the primary system as defined in Appendix D to this report On a related issue, the group noted that, at the twenty-first meeting of APANPIRG (APANPIRG/21), Conclusion 21/48 called for the update of the SADIS and ISCS User Guides by aligning them with meteorological watch office (MWO) requirements (regional FASID tables). In this regard, the group was pleased to note that ICAO was working on the development of a global database of flight information regions (FIRs) based on regional requirements included in FASID Table MET 1B.

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18 Report on Agenda Item Agenda Item 5: Operation of the WAFS 5.3: Other issues related to the operation and implementation of the WAFS Implementation of enhanced WAFS performance indicators The group noted an update provided by the WAFC Provider States, regarding the work being done for the provision of enhanced WAFS performance indicators, as a follow-up of WAFSOPSG Conclusion 5/7. In this regard, the group recalled that the additional performance indicators proposed at the WAFSOPSG/5 were as follows: a) mean and root-mean-square (RMS) vector wind error; mean and RMS temperature error; b) error against model analysis; c) at eleven flight levels: 050, 100, 180, 240, 300, 320, 340, 360, 390, 450 and 530; d) for the 00 UTC and 12 UTC model runs combined; e) at T+24 only (option for additional time steps); f) as global, colour-contoured charts with a zoom-in facility; g) as a database of values on a 1.25 x 1.25 grid as per WAFS GRIB2 grid; and h) as a 12-month running mean with the first data covering the period January to December The group was pleased to note that attributes a) to d) had been fully implemented by both WAFCs on their respective websites. However, it was noted that the implementation of the attributes f), g) and h) pertaining to colour contoured charts, gridded values and 12-month running means required further evaluation and a full-cost appraisal. In consideration of Conclusion 5/7 e) to h), the group considered that, in light of further coordination with users, and taking note of the advice from the WAFC Provider States that the effort to provide the information was likely to be considerable, the benefit of developing performance indicators in the form of a database and colour charts for multiple time steps and levels was limited. However, the group considered that information on the timeliness and completeness of the BUFR and GRIB datasets would be a highly useful measure of the performance of the WAFS. Therefore, the group formulated the following conclusion:

19 5.3-2 Report on Agenda Item 5.3 Conclusion 6/5 Implementation of enhanced WAFS performance indicators That, in time for WAFSOPSG/7 meeting, the WAFC Provider States study the feasibility of providing the following WAFS performance indicators to the WAFSOPSG; a) the number of times a complete set of SIGWX BUFR messages were not issued by the standard issue time; b) the number of times a complete set of SIGWX BUFR messages were not issued by the validity time of the data; c) the number of invalid or incomplete sets of SIGWX BUFR messages transmitted; d) the number of times a complete set of GRIB messages was not issued by the standard issue time, including the time at which each complete GRIB dataset was made available; and e) the number of SIGWX correction messages transmitted In addition, the group noted that there remained an outstanding action from WAFSOPSG/4, Conclusion 4/11, related to the potential development of user-oriented WAFS output performance indicators. Australia and IATA reported that airlines were currently satisfied with the performance statistics provided for wind and temperature parameters, and therefore Conclusion 4/11 could be considered completed. Fixed areas of WAFS forecasts in chart form Recalling discussions under Agenda Item 4.2, the group reviewed a proposal for new definitions to the latitude and longitude corner points of fixed area of coverage charts. In this regard, the group noted that, while adhering to quality management principles, the two WAFCs had been working to align various WAFS products and services. The two WAFCs had been coordinating to improve the alignment of significant weather (SIGWX) charts. Through this alignment and coordination process, the WAFCs had identified instances where the latitude and longitude coordinates used for the corner points of SIGWX charts were different to those published in Annex 3 Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation, and, on some charts, different between the WAFCs. These discrepancies did not appear to be impacting the day-to-day use of SIGWX charts in both binary universal form for the representation of meteorological data (BUFR) and portable network graphic (PNG) formats, but could be noticed during back-up operations when one WAFC was producing the other s charts. The group reviewed the reasons for such discrepancies and noted the WAFC Provider States position regarding the impact to user

20 Report on Agenda Item display software and hardware systems that would occur if it was decided to strictly adhere to the published Annex 3 coordinates. Therefore, the group formulated the following conclusion: Conclusion 6/6 Amendment to Annex 3 Meteorological Service for Air Navigation concerning the latitude and longitude coordinates for the corner WAFS forecasts in chart form RSPP That, the latitude and longitude coordinates for the corners of WAFS forecasts in chart form, for fixed areas of coverage as shown in Appendix 8, Figures A8-1, A8-2 and A8-3 of Annex 3 Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation be amended to those contained in Appendix E to this report. Note. WAFC Provider States are expected to implement changes by 30 August 2011 in order to harmonise the areas of chart coverage. The precise date of the implementation of the changes will be posted on the WAFS Change Notification Board on the web page of the WAFSOPSG, which was expected to be determined no later than 31 May Need for retransmission of SIGWX BUFR/PNG and GRIB1/GRIB2 bulletins The group recalled that at the WAFSOPSG/5 Meeting, WAFC administration/correction messages were introduced (Conclusion 5/4 refers) to inform users of detected errors in SIGWX BUFR/PNG forecasts. However, some users had expressed a need for further guidance on what to do with such messages on receipt. In this regard, the group reviewed the current policy with regard to re-transmitting SIGWX BUFR/PNG and GRIB1/GRIB2 bulletins. The group also considered that, as part of the quality management system (QMS) requirements of Amendment 75 to Annex 3, consideration be given to implementing re-transmission policies for these data types. The group reviewed the practical aspects, such as bandwidth availability for re-transmission, existence of common mechanism/policy for workstations to receive and correctly process re-transmitted data and the consideration of other factors, including timescale, which would trigger a re-transmission of data, to consider when assessing whether or not SIGWX BUFR/PNG and/or GRIB1/GRIB2 datasets should be re-transmitted. In reviewing the suggested options for implementing a re-transmission policy, the group considered issues such as SIGWX BUFR/PNG volumes; establishment of common policy for re-transmission protocols; the assurance from workstation vendors that their systems would process the re-transmitted data; the definition of a policy defining what would (and what would not) trigger a re-transmission; consideration of the sole use of the Internet provision of WAFS data and the routine availability of in-flight updates of information. In light of the review of such practical aspects and the suggested options for implementing a re-transmission policy intended to address concerns raised by some users to meet the spirit of QMS, and to generally improve the service and resilience of the WAFS dataset, the group agreed that there was a need for further discussion to identify solutions, and agreed a way forward. In this regard, the group formulated the following conclusion:

21 5.3-4 Report on Agenda Item 5.3 Conclusion 6/7 Ad hoc working group to consider re-transmission protocols/policies for WAFS SIGWX and GRIB2 datasets That, a) an ad hoc working group be established, comprising representatives from the WAFC Provider States (WAFC London Rapporteur), workstation vendors, IATA, IFALPA, France, Australia and China, to determine the need for, and if appropriate the subsequent protocols/policies necessary to implement re-transmissions of WAFS SIGWX and GRIB2 datasets; and b) prepare a report for presentation at WAFSOPSG/7 with a view for implementation if endorsed by the group in Amendment 76 to Annex 3 (November 2013). Note. Given that GRIB1 is tentatively scheduled for withdrawal in November 2013, it is considered that only re-transmission of GRIB2 datasets be considered. Follow up of APANPIRG Conclusion 21/ In a related issue, the group noted that APANPIRG/21 had called for the possibility that the WAFC Provider States inform users in advance about forthcoming changes to the content of WAFS forecasts (APANPIRG Conclusion 21/46 a) refers). In addition, APANPIRG/21 had requested for the provision of further guidance regarding specific actions to be undertaken by meteorological service providers and WAFS end users upon reception of administrative messages (APANPIRG Conclusion 21/46 b) refers). In response to the APANPIRG Conclusion 21/46 a), the WAFCs referred to the existing mechanism for informing users of impending changes to the content of WAFS forecasts via the WAFS Change Implementation Notice Board (Conclusion 2/4 refers). Whilst it was not appropriate to inform users of each and every change to underlying NWP processes via this mechanism, it would be used to inform users of changes where there was expected to be impacts upon users and users' systems. The group recalled that SADIS Administrative messages (AHL: NOUK10 EGRR) were issued by the SADIS Provider under such circumstances. Concerning more detail regarding data, it seemed more appropriate to maintain documentation on the WAFSOPSG web pages, and there were already several documents that provided such information (WAFC London WAFS Upper Air Forecast GRIB2 Dataset Guide and Representing WAFS SIGWX Data in BUFR - V4.2 as examples). Therefore, the group formulated the following conclusion:

22 Report on Agenda Item Conclusion 6/8 Guidance for handling WAFS SIGWX correction messages That, the Secretary, in coordination with IATA, IFALPA and the WAFC Provider States, provide guidance on requirement to onward-forward WAFS SIGWX forecast correction messages to users and report back to WAFSOPSG/7 Meeting. Additional geopotential flight level data provided by the WAFCs and update to Annex The group noted that Annex 3 lists, in section of Appendix 2, the requirements for the WAFS GRIB2 datasets, as provided by the WAFCs. In this regard, it was noted that the WAFCs were providing geopotential height data for an additional flight level (FL270) to those levels currently listed in Amendment 75 to Annex 3. In this regard, the group agreed that the omission was not a safety issue, and that the WAFCs were exceeding the requirements of Annex 3. Therefore the group concurred that the missing level should be included in draft Amendment 76 to Annex 3 (Appendix C of this report). Addition of wind, temperature and geopotential level to the grid point forecasts prepared by a WAFC and inclusion of terrain-induced turbulence in clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasts On a related issue, the group noted that the Air Navigation Commission (ANC), when performing the final review of Amendment 75 to Annex 3, at its 8th and 9th meetings of the 182nd Session, had agreed that the WAFSOPSG should study the desirability, from an operational and cost point of view, of the WAFCs issuing gridded forecasts for an additional level FL 410 (175 hpa) and for terrain-induced turbulence. In this regard, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the International Federation of Air Line Pilots Associations (IFALPA), after consultation with the Secretariat, had confirmed the support from the operational point of view to the issuance of the additional information described above. Regarding the cost impact, the WAFCs informed the group that: a) the provision of data for an additional level could be done at little or no additional cost; and b) the WAFCs were working together to include terrain-induced turbulence in clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasts; however, if a separate field was required, it would require a more precise definition and would incur an additional development effort Based on the above information, the group discussed the convenience of adding FL 410 (175 hpa) to draft Amendment 76 to Annex 3, Appendix 2, paragraph With regard to terrain induced turbulence, the group was informed that this feature will be included in the WAFC gridded CAT forecasts from April 2011 and therefore the WAFCs consider that the ANC requirement would be addressed by this means. Therefore, taking into account the discussion under and the group formulated the following conclusion:

23 5.3-6 Report on Agenda Item 5.3 RSPP Conclusion 6/9 Amendment to Annex 3 Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation That, sub-items a) and i) of section in Appendix 2 of Annex 3 Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation be updated to include flight level (FL) 270 (350 hpa) and FL 410 (175hpa) at an appropriate point in the list sequence, and that the update be included in Amendment 76 to Annex 3. Prioritization of GRIB2 WAFS Aviation Forecasts against the GRIB1 WAFS Aviation Forecasts The group recalled that operational GRIB2 WAFS forecasts were provided via public Internet-based services (SADIS FTP, WIFS) and by satellites services SADIS 2G and ISCS G2. In this regard it was noted that the parameters for CB clouds, icing and turbulence were available in clearly marked trial and evaluation folders via the Internet services (only until the forecasts were endorsed as operationally acceptable by the WAFSOPSG). GRIB2 data was made available via the public Internet services in March 2010, and was made available over the satellite broadcasts (excluding the parameters for CB, icing and turbulence) on 18 November 2010, in accordance with Amendment 75 to Annex 3. The group noted that Annex 3 also specified that the GRIB (1 or 2) datasets were made available to users as soon as technically feasible, but not later than 6 hours after standard time of observation. It was highlighted that due to technical constraints on satellite bandwidth (SADIS 2G), and in order to prevent any possible delay in other data forms, GRIB1 and GRIB2 should not be transmitted simultaneously. Accordingly, at the present time, GRIB1 datasets are transmitted ahead of the GRIB2 datasets. The group noted that, as GRIB2 is taken up by the user community in the coming months, there would come a point where, in order to: a) meet the needs of those users who have updated to GRIB2; and b) to encourage others to establish GRIB2 compatible systems, GRIB2 datasets should be transmitted before GRIB1 datasets. Therefore, to encourage the user community, the group agreed with the prioritization of GRIB2 data over GRIB1 and formulated the following conclusion: Conclusion 6/10 Prioritization of GRIB2 data over GRIB1 WAFS data That, with effect from the 1200 UTC data time on 5 July 2012, the WAFC Provider States ensure that GRIB2 WAFS datasets be made available before GRIB1 WAFS datasets. Note. GRIB2 data will be made available in the timeslots currently used by GRIB1, and GRIB1 data will subsequently be made available in the timeslots currently used by GRIB2 in accordance to Appendix F to this report.

24 Report on Agenda Item Comparison of ISCS and WIFS The group noted information regarding a comparison made by China of data received from ISCS and WIFS during selected time periods. In this regard, the group noted observations regarding the availability and content of OPMET (METAR/TAF/SIGMET) data, GRIB and BUFR data availability and automatic data retrieval from WIFS, which emanated from the referred comparison. In view of the analysis provided by China, the group discussed some apparent inconsistencies highlighted. The group also reviewed information provided by WAFC London regarding to the concerns raised relating to WAFC London GRIB1 and GRIB2. The group discussed the possibility of drafting a conclusion requesting that the WAFC Provider States conduct systematic comparisons between GRIB1 and GRIB2. The group was pleased to note that this was unnecessary since WAFC London made comparisons between its GRIB1 and GRIB2 forecast data in January/February 2010 as part of its internal operational acceptance processes. All differences between GRIB1 and GRIB2 were expected, and fully explainable for technical reasons, and none of the differences brought to the attention of the group by China indicated any unusual behaviour of the GRIB2 dataset with regard to the standard parameters. It was noted that since WAFC London generated its GRIB2 data directly from the underlying NWP model (currently 25 KM grid length and 70 vertical levels) the increasing east-west resolution of GRIB2 at higher latitudes benefited from the full capabilities of the underlying NWP fields. The group agreed that, there was no reason to unnecessarily delay the cessation of GRIB1 data, particularly since it was inferior to the GRIB2 product from temporal and spatial resolution perspectives, and generating both GRIB1 and GRIB2 incurred costs. Therefore, the group recommended that the industry should migrate to GRIB2 as soon as realistically feasible. Improvements to the distribution of SIGMETs and advisories The group recalled that according to Amendment 75 to Annex 3 (paragraph e) and f), and paragraph refers), SIGMET and advisories relevant for the whole route shall be provided in flight documentation. The group noted that the aeronautical fixed telecommunication network (AFTN) was the method of communication prescribed in Annex 3, for the exchange of time-critical elements. The group concurred that it was necessary to address this issue; however, it was clearly out of the terms of reference of the WAFSOPSG and would therefore have to be raised at an appropriate ICAO body, i.e. the Meteorological Warnings Study Group (METWSG). Replacement of WAFS satellite broadcasts Regarding the envisaged transition from the WAFS satellite broadcast (SADIS and ISCS) to the public Internet-based services (SADIS FTP/Secure SADIS FTP and WIFS), the group reviewed the authorized access to the WAFS satellite broadcast. In this regard, the Guidelines for Authorized Access to the World Area Forecast System (WAFS) Satellite Broadcast (Doc 8896, Appendix 1 refers) stated that: it is at the discretion of each Contracting State to determine, on advice from its Meteorological Authority, whether any of the following users will be provided with authorized access to the satellite broadcast: operators; air traffic services units; search and rescue services units; aeronautical information services units; volcanic ash and tropical cyclone advisory centres; and other aeronautical users. It was noted therefore, that before any user can obtain access to the WAFS satellite broadcast concerned, each Contracting State needed to notify ICAO and the Provider State of the satellite broadcast concerned regarding the users in that State it had authorized to access the satellite broadcast. In this regard, it was noted that currently the SADIS Provider State and ISCS Provider State undertook authorizing user access to the Internet-based services in same way as if the prospective user was wishing access to the satellite broadcast i.e.

25 5.3-8 Report on Agenda Item 5.3 the Contracting State would determine, based on advice from the MET Authority, which users would be permitted access. This consent would then be communicated to ICAO and the Provider States, whereupon login credentials would be issued to the user The group noted that one option was that the Guidelines for Authorized Access to the World Area Forecast System (WAFS) Satellite Broadcast be changed to satellite broadcast and/or Internet-based services. The further text would then need to show...with authorized access to the satellite broadcast and/or Internet-based services: operators,. Another simpler solution was to simply delete the word Satellite, therefore it would simply read Guidelines for Authorized Access to the World Area Forecast System (WAFS). This could be taken as either satellite, Internet-based services, or both. The group concurred that this issue needed to be properly addressed to ensure that each Contracting State would continue to possess the discretion to determine the authorized access of users in that State to the WAFS data and that the authorized access could be effectively controlled and managed. The group noted the importance of proper control over access to WAFS data by States. It was noted that this is achieved in current practice by WAFC Provider State consultation with States prior to granting access by entities within the State to WAFS data. It was decided by the group to continue this practice for all WAFC Internetbased services going forward. Depiction of frontal systems on SIGWX charts The group reviewed a proposal by the International Federation of Air Line Pilots Associations (IFALPA) to reinstate the depiction of frontal systems on SIGWX charts. In this regard, the group noted that IFALPA believed that the elimination of surface fronts, convergence zones and clouds other than CB from the high- and medium-level SIGWX forecasts as part of Amendment 74 to Annex 3 had been detrimental to safety and situational awareness of flight operations. Therefore, IFALPA considered that surface fronts, convergence zones and clouds other than CB on the high- and medium-level SIGWX forecasts needed to be depicted in chart form and made available to flight crews. IFALPA noted that alternative tools were being developed for imparting weather information to flight crews, but the current situation showed that these tools were not yet available, and in many cases the flight crews had not been given the training required to adapt their previous knowledge to the new proposed displays. The group realised that before reinstating surface fronts on the SIGWX forecast, harmonization between the two WAFCs, impact on the work of the WAFCs and associated costs and consistency with the WAFS long-term plan should be assessed. The group agreed that the addition of these elements deserved further consideration by an ad hoc group tasked to consider these issues. Therefore, the group formulated the following conclusion:

26 Report on Agenda Item Conclusion 6/11 Proposed re-introduction of surface fronts as an element of WAFS SIGWX forecasts in Annex 3 That, an ad hoc working group consisting of WMO (rapporteur), IATA, IFALPA, ASECNA, the WAFC Provider States, Australia, Canada and France consider the issues surrounding the reinstatement of the requirement for surface fronts as an element to be included in WAFS SIGWX forecasts, taking into account the rationale, harmonisation issues between the WAFCs, impact, cost and consistency with the WAFS long-term plan. The group should provide a progress report by 31 October 2011 and report back to WAFSOPSG/7. Inclusion of radioactive symbol in SIGWX charts Following a devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan on 11 March 2011, and the consequential damage to the Fukushima nuclear power plant, the group was informed of problems that occurred on some WAFC user workstations in use in France when the WAFCs had included a radioactive symbol in SIGWX BUFR data - due to no previous data containing the radioactive data in BUFR being available on which to test. As a response, WAFC London indicated that the testing of end users systems data fell outside the terms of reference of the group but that through the Satellite Distribution System Operations Group (SADISOPSG) there was an endorsed SADIS evaluation process that SADIS workstation vendors could make use of. It was also noted that enhanced evaluation criteria were being proposed to SADISOSPG/16 (May 2011) and that such enhancements may assist in identifying issues such as that experienced by some SADIS workstations with regard to the radioactive symbol. Inclusion of OCNL CB and non-convective moderate/severe icing/turbulence in SIGWX High and Medium Level Forecasts The group was informed by the WAFCs that following a review of Annex 3 - Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation, it had been identified that OCNL CB (as distinct from and in addition to OCNL EMBD CB) was required in SIGWX high level (SWH) in addition to medium level forecasts (SWM), and that the requirement had been introduced by Amendment 74 to Annex 3 (November 2007). In a similar fashion, although a rare occurrence, the inclusion of non-convective cloud associated with moderate/severe ice and turbulence was also required in SWH in addition to SWM forecasts. The WAFCs informed the group that in order to meet the requirements of Annex 3, the WAFCs would introduce these features as of 27July Having informed the group, and noting no objection, the WAFCs would place an appropriate notification on the WAFC Change Implementation Notice Board.

27 Report on Agenda Item 5.3 Improving the CB forecasting over the Africa region The WAFSOPSG considered a verbal request by the member for Benin to form an ad-hoc group to consider methods of improving the CB forecasting over the Africa region. Since the group had not been presented with a working paper that could have allowed a deep analysis of the issue, it was not possible to form an ad hoc group at the meeting. In order to advance this request, the group suggested that ASECNA and other States in the AFT Region should monitor the expected improvements to CB forecasting after implementation of the inclusion of OCNL CB by WAFCs (as discussed above), use the feedback mechanism in place to report perceived inaccuracies to the WAFCs and provide a working paper to WAFSOPSG/7, reporting on the items above and proposing future actions as felt necessary.

28 Report on Agenda Item Agenda Item 6: Development of the WAFS 6.1: Improved GRIB 2 forecasts for convective clouds, icing and turbulence Training for States and WAFS users on the intended use of the new gridded WAFS forecasts for CB clouds, icing and turbulence The group recalled that the fifth meeting of the World Area Forecast System Operations Group (WAFSOPSG/5) had formulated Conclusion 5/12 related to the development of an outline of computer-based training products for distribution to States and a web-based training package, to foster the future implementation of the gridded WAFS forecasts for CB clouds, icing and turbulence for use in flight planning. In this regard, the group reviewed and discussed the issues included in the progress report presented by the world area forecast centre (WAFC) Provider States, in coordination with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) The group noted that, without a definition of how the CB clouds, icing and turbulence would be visualized, and without an associated user requirement and a clear methodology for dissemination (other than as raw, binary data) it had not been possible to design a training package for such forecasts. The group agreed that in view of the lack of visualization standards for the gridded forecasts of CB clouds, icing and turbulence work on developing training for States and WAFS users on the intended use of the new gridded WAFS forecasts should be deferred until visualization standards for these products had been finalized and timescales for their operational implementation had been determined. However, to support the operational use of the new gridded forecasts, further guidance on the interpretation of the forecasts was required for the users. In this regard, the group formulated the following conclusions: Conclusion 6/12 Guidance on the interpretation of the new gridded WAFS forecasts for CB clouds, icing and turbulence That, to support the operational use of the new gridded WAFS forecasts for CB clouds, icing and turbulence, the WAFC Provider States develop guidance on the interpretation of the forecasts for presentation to WAFSOPSG/7. Conclusion 6/13 Training Requirements for the New Gridded WAFS Forecasts for CB Cloud, Icing and Turbulence That, the WAFC Provider States, in time for the WAFSOPSG/7 Meeting, review the training requirements for the new gridded WAFS forecasts for CB, icing and turbulence in light of the development of updated guidance on the interpretation of the forecasts.

29 6.1-2 Report on Agenda Item 6.1 Guidance on the intended use of new gridded WAFS forecasts for CB clouds, icing and turbulence for use in flight documentation On a related issue, the group reviewed a proposal for guidance on icing forecasts produced in gridded format by the WAFS for use in flight planning for extended range operations by turbine-engine aeroplanes (ETOPS). In this regard, the group noted that European and United States ETOPS regulations defined alternatives to the use of relative humidity and temperature for icing forecasts. In-flight icing on a global scale could be obtained or derived in two ways using WAFS computer-generated grids. The first was not an actual icing forecast; rather icing was inferred by using humidity and temperature forecasts. The second was the new WAFS gridded icing forecasts. The WAFS gridded icing forecasts were currently distributed through the public Internet-based services (SADIS FTP/Secure SADIS FTP and WIFS) and were labelled as trial forecasts. These trial forecasts were the first-generation of WAFS gridded icing forecasts and did not provide icing type or severity. However, these first-generation icing forecasts did provide icing potential. The group noted that icing potential demonstrated the confidence that any given atmospheric location, represented by a three-dimensional model grid box, would contain supercooled liquid water that is likely to form ice on an aircraft. WAFS first-generation gridded icing forecasts also provided a yes/no icing forecast which was in accordance with the regulations for ETOPS It was noted that there were two types of first-generation WAFS gridded icing forecasts. One was an average, or mean, icing potential over the grid (1.25 latitude by 1.25 longitude), while the other was the maximum potential within the grid. The maximum icing forecast provided the highest icing potential, in per cent units, for the three-dimensional grid which is 1.25 latitude by 1.25 longitude. Neither the maximum nor mean icing potential had any relationship to severity or intensity. It was the opinion of the WAFC Provider States that the maximum icing potential was a dataset more appropriate for ETOPS flight planning as it provided a more conservative forecast. In this regard, the group agreed that WAFS gridded icing forecasts should be considered as operationally acceptable for use in ETOPS, and formulated the following decision: Decision 6/14 WAFS Gridded Icing Forecasts That, the WAFS gridded icing forecast be endorsed as operationally acceptable for use in extended range operations by twin-engined aeroplanes (ETOPS) flight planning. Verification of WAFS CAT potential products The group reviewed the results of an evaluation which had been conducted for clear air turbulence (CAT) potential products using eddy dissipation rate (EDR) calculated from flight data in East and Southeast Asia between October 2008 and September In this regard, the results of the verification and the feedback from an aviation user liaison meeting held in Hong Kong, China, in October 2010 suggested that the WAFS trial gridded CAT potential products still had room for improvement before they could be considered for operational use (notably for tropical and subtropical regions in East and Southeast Asia). It was also proposed as essential that the verification of the WAFS products using extensive datasets for areas other than North America and Europe be considered, and further harmonization of the products from the two WAFCs be undertaken. Therefore the group formulated the following conclusion:

30 Report on Agenda Item Conclusion 6/15 Development and use of WAFS gridded forecasts That, WAFC Provider States be invited to: a) pursue further improvement and harmonization of the WAFS gridded forecasts for turbulence, icing and CB cloud; and b) conduct routine verification of the WAFS gridded forecasts using extensive datasets to establish to the extent possible the quality of the products in different parts of the world and report back to WAFSOPSG/7.

31 Report on Agenda Item Agenda Item 6: Development of the WAFS 6.2 : Visualization of WAFS forecasts The group recalled that it formulated Conclusion 5/14 calling for the development of a proposal for the visualization of the elements contained in significant weather (SIGWX) forecasts, making increased use of automated forecast data (e.g. new gridded forecasts), in a form similar to the SIGWX charts. In this regard, the group reviewed a progress report developed by the WAFC Provider States in coordination with the WAFSOPSG Members of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the International Federation of Air Line Pilots Associations (IFALPA). The group noted that WAFS upper-air gridded data sets had different element criteria when compared with the WAFS SIGWX charts The group agreed that since the upper-air gridded forecasts were designed to be integrated into flight planning systems, the provision of these data for flight planning systems should be the priority of the WAFC Provider States. It was also agreed that States and/or commercial vendors were best suited to be the developers and providers of visualized products derived from the WAFS gridded forecast data sets, including concatenated charts or time-height flight profiles for individual flights It was noted that the upper-air gridded forecasts of CB clouds, icing and turbulence should be considered a first-generation forecasts which were Annex 3 compliant and were suited for integration into flight planning systems. The group also noted that the WAFS SIGWX charts were not the same as the WAFS upper-air gridded forecasts. Visualization of the first-generation of WAFS upper-air gridded forecasts could not be expected to duplicate or align with the current SIGWX forecasts since one was human-produced and the other was computerproduced. It was noted that any attempts by the WAFC Provider States to replicate the SIGWX using the first-generation gridded data would result in a complex forecast map for flight documentation that contained visualized forecasts of CB clouds, icing and turbulence that did not meet the requirements and technical specifications for SIGWX forecasts It was also noted that the requirement for SIGWX forecasts in their current format was reiterated by IFALPA at an IATA MET Workshop held in Montréal in April At this workshop, IATA had stated future requirements for SIGWX charts and WAFS gridded forecasts calling for a single visualized product to be developed with the current requirements (i.e. depiction of forecasts of SIGWX as objects) with an agreed added capability such as the likelihood of occurrence for the given validity of severe turbulence and severe icing. The group expressed a desire to have an icing severity index that would be aircraft-independent (similar to the index that already exists for turbulence). However, it was noted that such an index would be a challenge and would take considerable time and effort to develop. Noting the difficulties for the WAFC Provider States to meet such a requirement as currently stated, the group formulated the following conclusion: