Glacier Monitoring: WAPDA s Initiative in the Upper Indus Basin

Transcription

1 Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) Glacier Monitoring & Research Centre Glacier Monitoring: WAPDA s Initiative in the Upper Indus Basin Asim Rauf Khan, Project Director GMRC WAPDA February 2016 ICIMOD, Kathmandu

2 WAPDA s mission statement Manage the water resources of Pakistan for irrigation, energy and flood control. 2

3 Contribution of Snow and Ice Western River Stations Approximate Contribution of Snow and Ice Indus at Tarbela 85% Kabul at Nowshera 75% Jhelum at Mangla 65% Chenab at Marala 50% Western Rivers Average Inflows Total Western Rivers Snow and Ice Contribution Total Contribution of Snow and Ice in Western Rivers Period Annual Inflows (MAF) Ice and Snow Contrib. (MAF) MAF 95.0 MAF 73.1 % 3

4 Cryosphere Monitoring 1960s Installation of river gauging network and valley bottom weather stations in Upper Indus Basin Snow surveys were carried out in Kaghan valley WAPDA in collaboration with Canadian Universities carried out UIB snow and glacier field studies to develop flow forecasting system for UIB Rivers WAPDA established high-altitude ( m.a.s.l.) network in UIB comprising 20 weather stations. Record collect & transmit hourly weather data to Flow Forecasting Centre Lahore. High-altitude data and UBC Watershed Model are being used for forecasting flows on seasonal (Rabi and Kharif) and short-term (10- Daily) since 2003 for water management in Indus River System. 4

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6 WAPDA DCP Station (4750 m.a.s.l.) at Khunjerab SENSORS INSTALLED Temperature Precipitation Relative Humidity Solar Radiation Snow Water Equivalent Wind (Speed; Direction) 6

7 Flow Forecasting using UBC Watershed Model Seasonal Kharif (April-September) Rabi (October-March) Ten-daily Indus Tarbela Kabul Nowshehra Jhelum Mangla 7

8 Glacier Field Activities during 2015 Studying the melt behaviour of glacier Pasu Glacier Miar-Sumiyarbar-Barpur System Biafo Glacier Stakes, weather data recording, discharge observations Snout surveys for glaciers in the Hunza River Basin Pasu Barpu Hoper Yazghill Malungutti Khurdopin & Yushkin Gardan Virjerab 8

9 Melt Rates for Biafo Glacier Jul-Sep (2015) Sr. No. Profiles Month Net Ablation Rates (cm/day) 1 July (11-31) Mango Profile August Sep. (1-9) 3.2 El m 4 July (11-31) Baintha Profile August Sep. (1-9) 4.1 El m 9

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11 Maximum Daily Discharge in Cusecs Maximum Daily Temperature ( o C Nagar Valley: Temperature & Glacial Melt (July 2015) 35.0 Temperature (Hoper) July AWS Nagar River Discharge July 2015 ARL Catchment of Nagar River

12 Glacier Snout Surveys (November 2015) 12

13 Pasu Glacier (initial work during in collaboration with ICIMOD) 13

14 Field Activities Plan for 2016 Glacier Field Investigations Hispar Glacier (Karakoram Range) Biafo Glacier (Karakoram Range) Rakhiot Glacier (Himalayan Range) Glacier Snout Surveys Hispar, Biafo, Rakhiot, Yashkuk Yaz, Batura, Gulkin, Gulmit, Hussaini, Bualter Discharge Measurements Nagar River Hispar River Shimshall River Rakhiot stream 14

15 Joint Field Work with ITP-CAS during 2016 Program under discussion Glacier melt-behaviour studies GPR survey Isotope analysis Water quality monitoring 15

16 Inflows (maf) 160 Post Treaty Western Rivers Inflow Trend Falling Trend Man-Kendall Trend Significance Level = 69% Annual Average ( ) = MAF 90 16

17 Inflow Volumes (MAF) 75 Kharif Flows FallingTrend at Tarbela During

18 Inflow Volumes (MAF) 11.0 Tarbela Rabi Flows Rising Trend During

19 Monthly Trends of Western Rivers During Trend Method: Mann Kendall Indus at Tarbela Kabul at Nowshera Jhelum at Mangla Chenab at Marala Months First Year Last Year n Avg. Q maf Trend Sig. Lvl. Avg. Q maf Trend Sig. Lvl. Avg. Q maf Trend Sig. Lvl. Avg. Q maf Trend Sig. Lvl. Jan Rising 95% Rising 88% Rising 61% Rising 82% Feb Rising 100% Rising 98% Rising 95% Rising 69% Mar Rising 99% Rising 84% Rising 91% Rising 15% Apr Rising 24% Falling 58% Rising 29% Falling 35% May Rising 100% Falling 40% Falling 1% Rising 61% Jun Falling 85% Falling 96% Falling 96% Falling 84% Jul Falling 92% Falling 91% Falling 92% Falling 92% Aug Falling 92% Falling 88% Falling 84% Falling 93% Sep Rising 13% Rising 14% Rising 50% Rising 1% Oct Rising 96% Rising 84% Falling 24% Rising 70% Nov Rising 100% Rising 1% Falling 6% Rising 69% Dec Rising 99% Falling 58% Rising 32% Rising 33% Annual Falling 52% Falling 65% Falling 22% Falling 53% Note: The Falling Trend in Summer UIB Flows is attributed to falling summer temperatures in UIB.

20 Thank You 20