JRODOS as an example for a model decision Support System for nuclear emergencies

Transcription

1 JRODOS as an example for a model decision Support System for nuclear emergencies Workshop Fukushima University, 19. March 2015 Wolfgang Raskob, Claudia Landman, Dmytro Trybushnyi Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Institute of Nuclear and Energy Technologies KIT University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Large-scale Research Center of the Helmholtz Association

2 Outlines Phases of a nuclear accident, from the emergency management's point of view What a decision support system can deliver to decision making teams in case of a severe nuclear accident JRodos as an example for a modern DSS Tasks, input data, output Basic model chain Models for special purposes JRodos users; an emergency centre with RODOS 2 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

3 Phases of a severe NPP accident During the event After the release Accident phase Recovery phase Threat phase Release phase Transition phase Long-term post-accident phase Hours / days / weeks Days / weeks / months Weeks / months/ years / decades Early measures Cancellation of early measures Preparation of long-term measures Rehabilitation of area for returning to normal living 3 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

4 Threat phase: Available information Alert message (not in Chernobyl) Status of NPP (not fully understood, partly unknown, unknown...) Inferred potential evolution of the accident First estimations of potential source term (uncertain: amount of and timing of release) Meteorological data and radiological data On-site measurements of weather; confirmation that a release is not already occurring Prognostic meteorological data (if available) Uncertain: Future development of weather, in particular when discrepancies between measurement and weather forecast Preparedness: Emergency plans and procedures, listings of teams and equipment etc. 4 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

5 Threat phase: Support provided by a DSS Collects all data in one place and provides information in a consistent way Performs dose assessments Provides results in terms of maps and time functions on activity concentrations, doses, dose rates Proposes area to initiate early countermeasures, simulates early countermeasures to estimate the performance of individual or combined measures 5 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

6 Release phase: Available information Status of NPP and potential evolution of the accident Source term knowledge (best) Release occurs exclusively via monitored escape route (some) Recordings from external monitors close to the building (some help) or farther away (considerable uncertainties) Little to none (disasters) Dose rates and other data from radiological monitoring On-site meteorological data and prognostic weather data Emergency management requires prognostic information Activity concentrations, doses and potential areas for decisions about early phase and early late phase (e.g. food) countermeasures in the environs (~100 km) of the accident location 6 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

7 Release phase: Support available from DSS As for the pre-release phase Data collection, simulation of activity concentrations and countermeasures (early) Two different types of information: Measurements and predictions Bringing both together is important, because: Measurements only represent a situation at one time at one given location ("on-site") Required are data representing larger time periods and areas Data assimilation can combine both monitoring and modelling so far not operational 7 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

8 On-site and prognostic weather data - Example 1 NWP wind direction [deg], 0 to 11 hours forecast Neckarwestheim, 58 m. Wind speed at 40 m > 3 m/s Wind speed at 40 m < 3 m/s Results for a NPP in hilly terrain in Germany Statistics of differences between numerical weather forecast and Neckarwestheim data for the first 11 hours of a 48 hour prognosis Statistical analysis period less than 3 months Measured wind direction [deg] 8 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

9 On-site and prognostic weather data - Example 2 Calculation with wind field derived with weather data from one station near Fukushima (with approved source term) Total Cs from monitoring Total Cs calculated from BfS with RODOS model ATSTEP 9 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

10 Same simulation with numerical weather Cs deposition from monitoring U.S. Department of Energy Cs-137 only calculated from BfS with RODOS model ATSTEP, using data from mesoscale meteorological Weather Research Forecast model WRF 10 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

11 Post-release phase: Available information Status of the NPP (release has stopped) Radiological monitoring (radiological situation is stable) Identify nuclide vector Identify hot spots Confirm footprint of the cloud Supervise doses in the population and in rescue teams Prognostic information is still needed Time evolution of activity concentrations, doses and potential areas to initiate late phase countermeasures (relocation, decontamination, food banning) wherever necessary 11 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

12 Post-release phase: Support from a DSS As for the other phases Data collection, simulation of activity concentrations and countermeasures (early and late) Support monitoring (in inhabited and agricultural areas) Data assimilation (in inhabited and agricultural areas) Simulation of recovery phase actions Evaluation of actions to identify the most effective ones 12 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

13 Use of a DSS in the preparedness phase Possible areas for application Support the preparation of countermeasure strategies in the various phases of an emergency and the recovery Check compliance with the new ICRP recommendations Support exercises Support the training of emergency staff Recalculation of historic events Support stakeholder engagement Development of scenarios for the discussion Use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools for structuring the problems 13 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

14 Key features of RODOS Real-time On-line Decision Support system Multi-user operation in national/regional emergency centres for off-site nuclear emergency management Provision of information for decision-making on local / national / regional / European scales, in the early and later phases of an accident, for all relevant emergency actions and countermeasures. Wide IT applicability - HP-UX and Linux (RODOS), Microsoft Windows, Linux and Mac OS (JRodos) 14 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

15 JRodos: Tasks, input data, output Radiological Monitoring Data Meteorological and Release Data Ranked List of Feasible Strategies of Long- Term Countermeasures (MAVT) evaluation of countermeasure strategies simulation of radiological situation data base simulation of countermeasures and consequences Areas, Organ Doses, People affected by Countermeasures, Health Effects, Effort, Costs Environmental Contamination of Air, Ground, and Food, Potential Doses 15 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

16 Assessment of radiological situation - JRodos models 16 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

17 (Basic models) Near-range model chain: Meteorological Pre-Processor 3-dimensional mass-consistent wind vector-field with vertical profile; PG-stability, mixing height, Monin-Obuchov Length, friction velocity, precipitation fields, atmospheric resistances (Demokritos, Athens) 1. Data node (Met. tower or NWP - Data grid point) 2. Data node (Met. tower or NWP - Data grid point) 17 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

18 (Basic models) Near-range ADM models Several models for atmospheric dispersion and deposition in the near range (historical): Gauß-"puff"-models ATSTEP (KIT, Karlsruhe) and RIMPUFF (Risø, Roskilde) For complex Terrain: Particle model DIPCOT (Demokritos, Athens) For powerful servers: Lagrange Particle Model LASAT (with licence) ATSTEP t 4 RIMPUFF DIPCOT t 1 t 2 t 3 TIC 18 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

19 (Basic models) Early countermeasure simulation model EmerSim (sheltering, evacuation, iodine tablets) Example Area potentially affected by sheltering, INEX1P2 scenario, German criteria Data base for national dose criteria and intervention levels Limited simulation of early health effects and economic consequences 19 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

20 (Special models) Later phase models ADM (near / far range) Monitoring data Data assimilation FDMT Areas where any of the European Commissions maximum permitted levels of radioactive contamination for marketed food are exceeded AgriCP Countermeasures in agricultural areas ERMIN European model for inhabited areas (decontamination, relocation) 20 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

21 ERMIN and AgriCP - Main characteristics Contain dynamic activity transport models as an integral part; this enables a flexibility in the simulation of the effects of late-phase actions on contamination and dose levels and the associated waste and costs that was previously not possible Cover practically any combination of measures described in the EURANOS Inhabited Area Handbook and EURANOS Handbook for Assisting the Management of Contaminated Food Production Systems 21 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

22 (Special models) Hydrological model chain HDM HDM Watershed runoff/pollution wash-off RETRACE JRODOS ADM 2D - Model Water and sediment transport in rivers Compartment model Radionuclide transport in water and fish RIVTOX POSEIDON HDM Data Base 2D - Model Radionuclide transport in in shallow reservoirs, lakes, coastal waters COASTOX 3D - Model Radionuclide transport in complex water bodies THREETOX Aquatic food chains FDMA 22 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

23 Evaluation of measures outside RODOS Evaluation and ranking of optional countermeasure strategies Elucidation of problem structure by hierarchically modelling of decision criteria, and Balancing of benefits and disadvantages by accounting for constraints (feasibility, public acceptability...), preferences of decision makers, and socio-psychological and political aspects overall objective sub-objectives attributes alternatives collective dose saved dose strategy x individual dose saved overall goal strategy y waste logistics strategy z work effort 23 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

24 JRodos software structure 24 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

25 JRodos users world wide (2014) RODOS installation RODOS user - planned RODOS local users 2013 Agreement signed with National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia 25 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

26 German Central Rodos Installation NL SH 17 Nuclear power plants 8 Near boarder NPPs NI 4 Research reactors NW BE 3 Nuclear facilities RODOS Center F HE DWD BW BY KFÜ Data transfer: realised in preparation Numerical weather prognoses data RZ CH A 26 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

27 RODOS users and user access types in Germany NL BMU NW HE SH NI TH ST MV BB BE SN A-Users: Can carry out authorized RODOScalculations (ISDN/Internet) B-Users: Can carry out private RODOS-calculations (Internet) DWD BW BY ZdB C-Users: Access to public RODOS-results (Internet) RODOS Zentrale 27 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

28 Future development Improvement of the atmospheric and aquatic dispersion models within the European project PREPARE Support of source term reconstruction via the usage of atmospheric dispersion models and dose monitors around the NPP Identification of research topics in the frame of the NERIS Platform and RODOS Users Group (RUG) Strategic research agenda with topics such as uncertainty and usage of a DSS Requests of users via the RUG 28 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

29 Conclusions JRODOS is applicable in all phases of an emergency It contains models for the atmospheric and aquatic pathways It can be installed centrally and used remotely from as many users as necessary dependent on the power of the servers in the RODOS centre Customisation is possible to national conditions applying national criteria for evacuation, sheltering and iodine distribution Customisation of the foodchain model to Chinese conditions will start 2015 System is freely available and KIT offers support contracts 29 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)

30 Thank you very much for your attention Questions? 30 Fukushima, JRodos team IKET(KIT)