Operational Forecasting With Very-High-Resolution Models. Tom Warner

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1 Operational Forecasting With Very-High-Resolution Models Tom Warner

2 Background Since 1997 NCAR Has Been Developing Operational Mesoscale Forecasting Systems for General Meteorological Support at Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC) Test Ranges

3 Two Types of Modeling Support Fixed-location modeling systems at test ranges Globally relocatable, GUI-controlled system that can be deployed by nonmodeling experts

4 Army Test and Evaluation Command 4DWX Systems At Test Ranges Operational 4DWX Systems

5 Software Components of Operational System The mesogamma-scale model and data assimilation system MM5/WRF-based Graphical interface to data and model products webbased and conventional Coupled models sound propagation, transport and dispersion, parachute drop, ballistic trajectory Retrieval system for archived data and model products System viewer graphical display of hardware and software system health Alert tool for notifying forecaster or forecast user when pre-specified wx threshold has been met (e.g., wind speed, lightning in area) cell, pager, Decision-support systems go/no-go decisions

6 Hardware Components PC Clusters Debian Linux OS nodes, 2 proc per node, 3.2 GHz

7 Training: An Essential Part of the Technology Transfer Process Forecasting with fine-scale models Workshops On-line training Certification System administration Hardware service at user level

8 Modeling System Overview Based on the Penn State/NCAR MM5/WRF model Forecasts initialized from a parallel data assimilation system that ingests surface, satellite, radiosonde, profiler, mesonet, commercial-aircraft, and radar data Model run cycle typical: 24 h forecasts initiated every 1-3 hours Model horizontal resolution finest grid increment of km to resolve complex local forcing

9 Real-time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (RT-FDDA) ETA/ AVN MM5 OBS Cold start New forecast every N hours, taking in all new obs* FDDA t Analysis Forecast Forecast Data are from radiosondes, profilers, local mesonets, cloud-track winds, ACARS, etc

10 Paradigms for System Development Much detailed local forcing need high horizontal resolution Data-assimilation system must allow mesoscale circulations to exist in initial conditions

11 OSU LSM in the PSU/NCAR MM5 (Pan and Mahrt, 1987; Chen et al., 1997; Chen and Dudhia, 2000) Precipitation Transpiration Canopy Water Evaporation Turbulent Heat Flux to/from Snowpack/Soil/Plant Canopy Condensation on vegetation Direct Soil Evaporation Deposition/ Sublimation to/from snowpack Runoff Soil Moisture Flux on bare soil Evaporation from Open Water Snowmelt Ζ = 10 cm Ζ = 30 cm Soil Heat Flux Interflow Internal Soil Moisture Flux Ζ = 60 cm Internal Soil Heat Flux Ζ = 100 cm Gravitational Flow

12 Example 1 of Forecast Grids Dugway Proving Ground System

13 Example 2 of Forecast Grids Yuma Proving Ground System

14 An Example of the Need For High Horizontal Resolution

15 Typical Orography and Vegetation

16 Typical Diurnal Temperature Contrast Between Playa and Surroundings Playa Moist thermally conductive, large latent-heat flux Highly reflective

17 Observed 10-m Wind at 0300 LT

18 Observed 10-m Wind at 1300 LT Salt Breeze Salt Breeze Front

19 Lake Breeze Observed 10-m Wind at 1500 LT

20 Drainage Flows Dominate Observed 10-m Wind at 0300 LT

21 Salt Flat Observed and Predicted Daytime Salt Breeze and Front Front

22 Coupled Special-Application Models

23 Urban Wind Model and Transport and Dispersion Model UWM winds, 4 x 4 km area, 40 m DX, 26 vert. levels, up to 535 m) MM5 2 km domain provides Boundary conditions for UWM UWM met is coupled to SCIPUFF dispersion model

24 Noise-Propagation Model

25 Advantages of 4DWX System Relative to NWS Products Higher horizontal resolution Native data available for display Coupled special-applications models available, with link to met model Products customized to needs (including DSS s)

26 Global Meteorology on Demand (GMOD): GUI-based globally relocatable mesoscale modeling system (with ensemble-forecasting, and coupled-model options)

27 Sponsors ATEC DTRA NGIC (National Ground Intelligence Center) VPG (Virtual Proving Ground) DARPA

28 Applications of GMOD ATEC off-range test operations Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom SLC Olympics Athens Olympics Colorado and Arizona fires (summer 02)

29 Iraq Forecasts for National Ground Intelligence Center Baghdad urban area

30 GMOD elements Based on ATEC MM5 model SCIPUFF transport and dispersion model Input: ETA, GFS, ECMWF model grids; GTS obs, various mesonets, cloud-motion winds, ACARS, etc Multi-mode: full forecast model, running parallel on all nodes analyses only, single-node ensemble runs, one ensemble member per node Platform-independent UI laptop, PDA, etc. Multiple cluster addressable: one 32-node, and two 48-node systems, currently

31 GMOD Main Menu Platform selection and status Job ID s MM5 run status for a Job ID

32 Setup: Specifying the Grid

33 Geo-location: Regional and Street Maps

34 FDDA-Lite and Ensemble Forecasts Lite: short forecast on single node, e.g., 4 km res, 200 x 200 km inner grid, 2-hr fcst N-member ensemble: N FDDA Lites, with statistical combining, and optional coupled application

35 SCI 2 FDDA 3 SCI 3 SCI 4 Latitude FDDA 4 Latitude FDDA 2 Latitude SCI 1 Latitude FDDA 1 Latitude Latitude Server-Side Coupled-Modeling, and GMOD s Ensemble Operation EXP 01 EXP 07 EXP 02 EXP 08 EXP 03 EXP 09 EXP 04 EXP 10 EXP 05 EXP 11 EXP 06 EXP Longitude FDDA N SCI N Dosage (10x kg-sec m-3 ) Met ensemble output plume ensemble output Longitude

36 SCIPUFF Setup

37 Product output viewers

38 PDA version HP 5450 GPS option