Hosgri Fault Location and Dip SSC TI Team Evaluation Hans AbramsonWard
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1 1 Hosgri Fault Location and Dip SSC TI Team Evaluation Hans AbramsonWard PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study
2 2 Key Data Sources PE Models: Johnson WS2 presentation Hardebeck WS2 presentation Watt WS2 presentation AbramsonWard WS2 presentation Other Published Data PG&E (2013) Seismic Stratigraphy report Johnson and Watt (2012) PG&E (2011) Shoreline Fault Report Willingham et al. (2013), publication of LTSP mapping and data Seafloor multibeam echo sounding (MBES) data (CSU Monterey Bay; R. Kvitek): - Unpublished Data Hardebeck (2014) relocated seismicity
3 3 Fault Map comparison Willingham et al. (2013) Publication of LTSP-era mapping Based on interpretation of high and low energy seismicreflection data from numerous surveys collected for different purposes from 1970s to 1980s. Faults are mapped as structural trends representing a combination of shallow and deep (~2 km) faults.
4 4 Fault Map comparison Johnson and Watt (in preparation) Faults from draft geologic map Based on interpretation of high-resolution Sparker seismic-reflection data (800m spacing) and bathymetry Small-scale version was published in Geosphere, 2012 paper
5 5 Fault Map comparison PG&E (2011) Shoreline Fault Zone report Based on interpretation of high-resolution Sparker seismic-reflection data (800m spacing) and bathymetry Only traces of Hosgri fault are shown here
6 6 Fault Map comparison Fault map from PG&E (2012 and 2013) and preliminary LESS interpretation Based on interpretation of high-resolution 3D and 2D seismic-reflection data (sparker and boomer) and bathymetry
7 Four studies agree: distributed zone near DCPP 7 Modeled as 3 traces: -aleatory uncertainty which will rupture
8 Evidence of Central and Western trace activity West trace Central trace 8 Eastern trace not observed on this line
9 9 Hosgri fault dip from first motion polarity Incompatible with composite firstmotion polarities. Compatible for mean and steeper dips. Dip=76-89 NE. Rake (from FM fit)=180 ±24. From Hardebeck, WS2 presentation
10 Projections through microseismicity 10 Hosgri fault DCPP km
11 Projections through microseismicity 11 Hosgri fault DCPP km
12 Projections through microseismicity 12 Hosgri fault DCPP km
13 Projections through microseismicity 13 Hosgri fault DCPP km
14 Projections through microseismicity 14 Hosgri fault DCPP km
15 15 Dip Assessment Potential field data Modeling of magnetic anomalies across the Hosgri and Shoreline faults suggests vertical to steeply NE-dipping faults in the shallow crust (<15 km depth) [From Watt, WS2 Presentation] 3 alternative models capture CBR of existing data, and are intended to capture possible improvements from future data: Additional data from OBS Improvements in velocity model Simplest interpretation of vertical fault is supported by seismicity data Composite focal mechanism supports a near-vertical fault Min dip is 75 degrees east (from central trace)
16 Hosgri Fault Models 16 Model 1 Central trace dips 85 E Other traces are splays from depth (5 km) Best fit to seismicity Test depth of branching with sensitivity? Model 2 Central trace dips 75 E. Other traces are shallow splays (3 km) Locates trace east of seismicity Represents limit of technical defensibility from hypocentral location uncertainty, possible systematic offset, and possible future data Model 3 3 traces are vertical to base of crust Important end member case Provides a reasonable fit to seismicity Outward Vergent SW Vergent NE Vergent
17 17 Parameter Values, Hosgri Fault Model: 1. Outward vergent 2. SW vergent 3. NE Vergent Weighted Weight 0.40 Weight 0.30 Weight 0.30 Range mean* Hosgri Center East West Center East West Center East West Summary Mean Dip Dip Direction E W E E E E N/A N/A N/A p[s] Style of faulting SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS Width (12 km depth) Width (15 km depth) Depth to top (Ztor) We are tracking ground motion parameters for interface with GMC team: Hanging wall effect, Rjb, Rrup, Rx, Ry
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