100 Million Years of Sea-level Change:! Should I Sell My Shore House?!
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1 100 Million Years of Sea-level Change:! Should I Sell My Shore House?! Kenneth G. Miller (and friends), Earth & Planetary Sciences Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey DOSECC Distinguished Lecturer geology.rutgers.edu/miller.shtml! Onshore Bass River, NJ! View of NY harbor from the JOIDES Resolution! in an ice-free world (73 m rise)! JOIDES Resolution!
2 Sea-level measurements! Satellite altimetry! Tide gauges! Coastal sediments!!< 20,000 yr! Reef terraces!!< 130,000 yr! Oxygen isotopes a proxy record!!increasing uncertainty 125,000-7,000,000+ yr! Sequence stratigraphy!!< 1,000,000,000+ yr! instruments / modern! First min.! rock record / ancient! Second part:! deep time!
3 Flooding of NYC: An Inconvenient Truth! If Greenland broke up and melted this is what would happen to Manhattan. They can measure this precisely, just as the scientists could predict precisely how much water would breach the levee in New Orleans the WTC memorial would be underwater.! Al Gore! NYC after 5 m (15 ft) sea-level rise! Screenshot from the movie!
4 How long to achieve Goreʼs 5 m rise?! = sea level 125,000 y ago:! IPCC 2001: years;! IPCC 2007: yr! New: Greenland surging, much sooner, but >>100 yr! Otto-Bleisner et al. (2006) simulation! 2266! 2364! AD! 125,000 y ago last interglacial! The future: IPCC (2007)!
5 Sea-level forecast: IPCC 2001 & 2007! 40 cm (1.25 ft) rise by 2100, 1 m (3.3 ft) by 2200 IPCC 2001 error estimate: cm! IPPC 2007 error: cm (does not include ice sheet melting)! 2001! 2007!
6 Global sea level is rising! 20th Century ~1.8 mm/yr tide gauges Church & White (2006)! 0.6 ft every 100 yr! Satellite data! 3.2±0.4 ʻ inches every 100 yr!
7 Why Is global sea level is rising today?! Thermal Expansion: ocean has gained heat! Warmer water less dense global 20th century warming ~0.6 C! 1.6 mm/yr sea-level rise! Melting Glaciers & Ice Caps:! Melting land ice adds to ocean volume, but not sea ice! Alpine! IPCC2001!
8 Why Is global sea level Is rising today?!.! Melting mountain glaciers/ice caps ( alpine and! continental ice sheets (Greenland & Antarctica):! Alpine glaciers 0.6 mm/yr! Greenland IPCC2001: near 0! Cazenave & Nerem (2004): >0.15 mm/yr! 0.6 mm/yr 2005 (Sterns & Hamilton 2007)!
9 We are tracking high end predictions! Not a Gorian 5 m, but not IPCC ±20 cm! Best estimate >80 cm global; Rahmsdorf et al. (2007)! max. 1 m? 2m?? MWP1a maximium mm/yr! Tide Gauges Rahmstorf, Cazenave, Church, Hansen, Keeling, Parker and Somerville (Science 2007)
10 Annual ice mass loss - Greenland! Gt/year Altimetry InSAR GRACE Mean trend ( ) ~0.4 mm/yr sea level rise Slide provided by A. Casenave!
11 New record of melting: Rignot et al. (2011)! Two independent techniques: 1) mass budget estimates; 2) GRACE! Left: Greenland! Right: Greenland & Antarctica! Left: Antarctica! Right: projection using Rignotʼs rates and IPCC steric + alpine contribution (Miller, unpublished)! Estimate ~1 m! cm above present!
12 Last 20 kyr (last glacial-now) Barbados Curve! Barbados lowstand! A. palmata (fossil sunshine) 120 m below present day at 18 ka (Fairbanks, 1989)! 120 m ± 5 m lowstand Last Glacial Maximum Rate up m/1000 yr! ( ka MWP1a)! New Barbados data: >40 mm/yr! Testing by Tahiti IODP Exp. 310! 47 mm/yr!!!
13 Sea-level rise past 5000 years! New Jersey, Delaware, So. New England = 1.8 mm/y; subsidence 1 mm/yr?! Natural global sea-level rise <0.75±0.25 mm/yr! North Carollna!
14 Background vs. human effects! Is sea-level rise today part of natural cycle?! Prior to 1850:!! mm/yr! 20th Century: 1.8 mm/yr! Today: 3.3 mm/yr! Therefore, the natural background rise only 15-25% of modern, rest due to human influence! North Carolina Kemp et al. (2011)!
15 Global, regional, and local effects! Modified after Psuty and Collins (1986)! NY/NJ/DE region! higher sea-level rise! Processes:! Global (eustatic) rise! 1.8 mm/yr! Regional subsidence!glacial Isostatic Adjustment!!1 mm/yr! Local subsidence!!due to water withdrawal!!& compaction!! 1 mm/yr!
16 Un-Vailing eustasy: An ad-haq hypothesis?! 1977! 1987!
17 Jersey outcrop sequence boundary! Campanian/Maastrichtian unconformity! Matawan, NJ Sequence: stratigraphic unit of relatively conformable, genetically related strata bounded by unconformities and correlative surfaces associated with baselevel lowering (tectonic & eustatic)!
18 NJ/MAT sea-level transect! 3 seismic grids, onshore & offshore coreholes! 3 seismic grids x-shelf (Ew9009), OCS/slope (Oc270), nearshore (CH0698)!
19 Top: Island Beach, NJ; bottom: Atlantic City! Top: Cape May, NJ; bottom: JOIDES Resolution!
20 Sequence boundaries witha sea-level falls! Offshore prograding Miocene sequences! Sequence boundaries subdivide onshore record! 14 Miocene, 8 Oligocene, 12 Eocene, 7 Paleocene Late K!
21 Identifying marine sequence boundaries in cores! Physical evidence Sharp unconformable contacts Lag gravels, phosphorites Shell beds/hash Rip-up clasts Extensive burrowing and bioturbation Geophysical log characteristics Overstepping of lithofacies successions Facies succession (model dependent) Dramatic paleodepth changes Must show geographic distribution (not local surface) Mid-! Miocene! (M4)! Ma)! Oligocene! (~ 26.6 Ma)! Temporal Hiatuses Sr-isotopic stratigraphy Biostratigraphy (e.g., planktonic foraminiferal zones)
22 Onshore: Predictable facies!
23 Onshore! sequences! Example lo. Miocene onshore sequences,! Cape May,NJ! Characteristic! erosional boundaries! shoaling upwards, paleodepth from lithoand biofacies! each ends near shore! ages Sr-isotopic dating & biostrat. ± Ma! ~1.5 Ma duration!
24 Shelf sequence boundaries dated on the slope! Island Beach 35 km Two-way travel time (s) 0 Ew9009 Line K/T m5 o1 m1 m2 m3 p6 p km 2 3
25 Glacioeustasy controls icehouse sequence boundaries! Onshore Hiatuses = Offshore seismic sequence boundaries! = baselevel lowerings! Sequence boundaries = global δ 18 O increases! Ice-volume (glacioeustasy) controls Icehouse (33-0 Ma) sequence boundaries! Miller et al. Science! (1996)!
26 Backstripping provides eustatic estimate! T.S. = tectonic subsidence, or the subsidence of the basin floor in water without any sediment load. Φ = the basement response function to loading S* = the decompacted sediment thickness ρ = density a = asthenosphere w = water SL = change in eustatic (global) sea-level WD = paleo-water depth of the sediments Backstripping onshore NJ! 1-D backstripping accounts for! compaction! loading (Airy)! thermal subsidence fit!mckenzie stretching!exponential curve! 2-D (Oligocene) accounts for!flexural loading!!(kominz & Pekar)! Residual R2 eustatic estimate!
27 Backstripping provides eustatic estimate! Van Sickel et al. (2004) and Miller et al. (2005):! 6 onshore sites (only 2 Cretaceous)!
28 New Sites! 2008 New sites! Leg 174AX onshore! 5 Cretaceous sites! 10 Cenozoic sites! Kominz et al. (2008)! Browning et al. (2008)!
29 Continental flooding & backstripped estimates! Müller! Late Cretaceous estimates! NJ: m (now 100 m)! Exxon: 250 m! Müller (2008): 175 m! Kominz Ridge: m (230 m)! Scotian backstrip: 120 m! Continental flooding:!!harrison (1990): 150 m! Bond (1979): ~140 (80-200) m! QED: 150±50! Consistent with small changes!!in spreading rates! Miller et al. (2011) Oceanography, 24, 40-53, doi: /oceanog , 2011.! Posted at
30 No such thing as a stable continent! 3 recent studies NJ sat high in Cretaceous due to subducting Farallon plate (Müller et al., Science, 2008; Moucha et al., EPSL, 2008; Spasojevic et a., GRL, 2008) estimate of 150±50 m for Late Cretaceous peak
31 δ 18 O and sea level yr scale! Late Cretaceous-Eocene: Ephemeral Antarctic ice m sea-level changes! Oligocene-early Pliocene: large, variable Antarctic ice! m sea-level changes! late Pliocene-Recent: Antarctic and large, variable Northern Hemisphere ice m sea-level!
32 Cretaceous-Eocene: An ice-free greenhouse?! Large (>25 m), rapid (<1 myr) sea-level changes only explained by glacioeustasy, yet high latitudes were warm! An Ice-Free World:! eastern U.S.! Shoreline assuming 64 m higher sea level!
33 Greenhouse ice sheets restricted to Antarctic interior! Antarctic Ice Sheet! ~15 Ma = modern! ~33 Ma, e. Oligocene, m! ~70 Ma, largest Cretaceous, 40 m! ~92 & 96 Ma, big Cretaceous, 25 m! ~93 Ma, typical Cretaceous, 15 m! Maps from models Deconto & Pollard (2002) Sea-level from Kominz et al. (2008) update!
34 Heartbeat of the Greenhouse-Icehouse transition! Animation courtesy of D. Pollard after DeConto and Pollard (2002)! Beginning illustrates Greenhouse ice growth and decay (~3x CO 2 )! End illustrates Oligocene Icehouse (<2.8 CO 2 )!
35 Comparison with EPR estimates! Timing falls ± correct! long-term 100 vs. 250 m! myr scale amplitudes m, not 100+ m! Sahagian Russian platform backstripping overlaps & extends ours to E. Jurassic! It has been said that ours is the worst form of sea-level curves except all the others that have been tried. Churchill, 1947
36 Future work! Test Eustatic Estimates! Pose Thorny Problem! ODP Leg 194 drilled! NE Australian margin estimated eustatic lowering 85±30 m! ca. 11 Ma late middle Miocene! i.e., double NJ but 1/2 of Haq! Then reduced to 33±12 m! story of flexural vs. Airy! John et al.! 55±15 m! NJ 40±15 m (but we miss Miocene lowstands onshore)!
37 δ 18 O and sea level yr scale! Scale δ 18 O to sea-level! Late Miocene ice volume similar to today, δ 18 O 0.5 lower due to 2 C cooling! 0.1 /10 m calibration! Miller et al. (2011) update using Lisiecki and Raymo stack and 67:33 ice:temperature attribution!
38 Integration atoll, margin, deep-sea records! Pliocene ca. 3 Ma peak sea level 20 m CO 2 ~400 ppm,! global T = 1-2 C warmer (Miller et al., Geology, in review)! Enewetak Atoll! Eyreville, VA! Site 1308 N. Atlantic! Wanganui Basin! New Zealand! likely (68%) peak sea-levels m higher than modern extremely likely (95%) was m higher!
39 IODP Ex. 313: NJ/Mid-Atlantic Transect! Focus on lower Miocene sequences! Integrated Ocean Drilling Program!
40 Conclusions! 10 7 yr scale! No such thing as a stable continent, but! Long-term sea level 150±50 m Ma! Fell ~100 m from 50 to 0 Ma! Consistent with small changes spreading rate!
41 Conclusions! yr scale! Late Cretaceous-Eocene ( Ma): Ephemeral Antarctic ice sheets ~30 m sea-level changes! Oligocene-early Pliocene ( Ma): Large, variable Antarctic ice sheets m sea-level changes! Late Pliocene-Recent (2.5-0 Ma): Antarctic and large, variable Northern Hemisphere ice sheets m sea-level changes! 10 4 yr scale! Natural sea level globally rising since 5 ka, 0.75±0.25 mm/yr! 20th century, 1.8 mm/yr! Today, 3.2 mm/yr, anthropogenic!
42 Should I sell my shore house?! Donʼt sell: insure!! global >80 cm (2.4 ft) by 2100! NJ >-100 cm (>3 ft)! Global 1.2±0.6 m by 2100! More beach erosion, rollback! More cost to replenish! Loss of marshland! Increased storm intensity?! What about those coming behind?! Carteret Is.! Tuvalu! Vanuatu! View of NY harbor in an ice-free world (73 m rise)!
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