Field Research Facility

Transcription

1 Field Research Facility Sea Level Rise Observations of Sea Level rise Forces driving change Predicting future Sea Level rise Response of land surface Storm inundation coupled with Sea Level Dr. Jesse McNinch Research Oceanographer

2 Politics of climate change -- political system ideal for management of problem (not defining it) People generally see what they look for, and hear what they listen for H. Lee Observations Forces Predicting Innovative solutions Response for a safer, better Storms world

3 Sea Level Rise -- it is really happening now (and has in the past) Sea-level high stand (~120 thousand years ago) Sea-level low stand : ~18,000 years ago) Good News! - Sea Level Rise is a slow process and can be planned for (like the sharks or a retirement account) Observations Forces Predicting Innovative solutions Response for a safer, better Storms world 3

4 Global (eustatic) Sea Level Rise Evidence tide guages satellite altimetry biota indicators old shorelines

5 Recent Sea Level Rise Holgate and Woodworth, tidal gauges from 13 regions, at least 38 years of data to use a station. From IPCC 2001 Observations Forces Predicting Innovative solutions Response for a safer, better Storms world

6 Total Sea Level Change Since 1993 BUT it s complicated -- sea level changes over time and space Observations Forces Predicting Innovative solutions Response for a safer, better Storms world

7 Relative Sea Level Change Atlantic City 3.98 mm yr Grand Isle 9.85 mm yr See mini-atlantic Ocean experiment -- movement of continent surface relative to ocean sea level rise Juneau Source: mm yr Observations Forces Predicting Innovative solutions Response for a safer, better Storms world

8 Forces Driving Relative Sea Level Change -- varying spatiotemporal signals tectonic spreading global temperature oceanic circulation sedimentation isostatic rebound subsidence glaciation water storage

9 Water Storage Largest Influence -- water storage Balance between: 1. water trapped on land (terrestrial glaciers, lakes, rivers, groundwater) 2. water stored in the atmosphere 3. water stored in the oceans Water trapped in ocean glaciers does not change the level of the oceans when it melts See mini-atlantic Ocean experiment -- floating glaciers vs. glaciers melting from land

10 Glaciation and Isostatic Rebound

11 Oceanic Circulation

12 Sedimentation and Subsidence Industrial Revolution Renaissance Dark Ages begin Rome founded > -10 sq. mi./yr. Pyramids Written language Mississippi River Delta

13 Thermal Expansion (steric effect) Krakatoa: Decreased the global temperature by 1-2 degrees until 1888.

14 Sea Level Measurements at Duck measured at the FRF (NOAA tide station) mean increase of ~4mm yr -1 mean Atlantic rise of ~ mm yr -1

15 Forecast Modeling of Sea Level Interpolation Extrapolation linear time future Empirical modeling Numerical modeling

16 Forecast Challenges IPCC 2013

17 Land Surface is Dynamic -- OBX not a porcelain bathtub Static landforms Dynamic landforms

18 Shoreline Change at Duck Pier Beach profiles

19 Sea Level Rise and Flooding: Currituck Sound measured at FRF Currituck Sound Flooding events rapid inundation of the Sound during storms are a big challenge!

20 Hurricane Irene Wind field: Delft3D

21 Observed & modeled inundation during Hurricane Irene & Super Irene Currituck Sound water level: 0 m, NAVD88 Hurricane Irene peak flooding elevation Currituck Sound water level: 1.62 m, NAVD88 Super Hurricane Irene (cat. 3) peak flooding elevation Currituck Sound water level: 2.62 m, NAVD88

22 Conclusion -- adaptive management for the long haul recent and past changes in sea level at Duck are well constrained (observed ) a range of future predictions are available (all show an increase) occurs slowly over engineering and management doable time frames pressing need is management strategy for storm inundation coupled with SL rise Mean sea level trends for U.S. tide stations computed by NOAA for 128 long-term water level stations using a minimum span of 30 years of observations at each location. See ends/sltrends.shtml for updated information.