Should I Sell My Shore House? NJ As a Natural Laboratory for Sea-level Change Ken Miller, Chair of Geological Sciences (FAS)
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1 Should I Sell My Shore House? NJ As a Natural Laboratory for Sea-level Change Ken Miller, Chair of Geological Sciences (FAS) Hurricane Isabelle, Avalon, NJ 9/18/2003 December Nor easter, LBI, 12/1993 Ash Wed. Nor easter, H. Cedars, 1962 Storms: Extreme Sea-level Events J. Church (IPCC) December Nor easter, LBI, 12/1992
2 Flooding of NYC: An Inconvenient Truth If Greenland broke up and melted this is what would happen to Manhattan. They can measure this precisely, just as the scientists could predict precisely how much water would breach the levee in New Orleans the WTC memorial would be underwater. Al Gore NYC after 5 m (15 ft) sea-level rise Screenshot from the movie
3 Should I Sell My Shore House? J. Hansen: Waretown, NJ 9/13/2006 Greenland melting puts NYC underwater
4 Sea-Level Measurements Satellite altimetry back to 1993 Tide gauges back to 1850 instruments / modern Coastal sediments Pre-anthropogenic back to 20,000 years ago Reef terraces rock record / ancient back to 130,000 years ago Sequence stratigraphy back to 1,000,000,000+ years ago Geology needed to evaluate natural, pre-anthropogenic sea-level
5 Sea Level Was Very High in Past: Ice Free World & Tectonics An Ice-Free World: eastern U.S. Shoreline assuming 73 m higher sea level
6 NJ/MAT Transect: Seismic Grids (3) & Boreholes Natural laboratory for sea-level change on many time scales
7 Top: Island Beach, NJ; bottom: Atlantic City Top: Cape May, NJ; bottom: JOIDES Resolution
8 A New Record of Sea-Level Change Miller et al. (2005) Sea level synthesis in Science m sea level rises and falls Even in supposedly ice-free Cretaceous Greenhouse Radical ideas: ephemeral ice sheets during the Greenhouse World Sea level on 100 m higher 80 million years ago (thought 250 m)
9 IODP Ex. 313: NJ/Mid-Atlantic Transect Quic ktime and a TIFF (Unc ompres sed) decompress or are needed to see this pic ture. Summer 2007 Integrated Ocean Drilling Program
10 Depth (m) 18 ) C Age Younger Dryas Chronozone after Fairbanks (1990) Age (ka) Th/U Age Barbados Curve Barbados lowstand A. palmata (fossil sunshine) 120 m below present day 18 ka (Fairbanks, 1989) 120 m ± 5 m lowstand Last Glacial Maximum Rate up to 20 m/1000 yr (2 14 ka MWP1a)
11 NJ Sea Level Rise past 5000 years TIFF (LZW) decompressor
12 Sea-Level Rise past 5000 y New Jersey = 1.8 mm/y regional rise; global 1 mm/y
13 Global Sea Level Is Rising ~1.8 mm/yr tide gauge data inches/ 10 yr ~2.8±0.4 mm/yr satellite data inches/ 10 yr Causes Thermal expansion: global warming ~0.6 C since 1900 = 1.1 mm/yr sea-level rise Ice melting? 0.6 mm/yr from alpine glaciers 0.15 mm/yr from Greenland (Cazenave & Nerem, 2004) IPCC
14 Global Warming Sea level CO 2 40 cm 0 cm
15 Sea-Level Forecast Global warming: water expands = rising sea level Rising sea level: 40 cm (1.25 ft) rise next 100 yr 1 m (3.3 ft) in next 200 yr
16 Global, Regional, and Local Effects NY/NJ/DE region higher sea-level rise Processes: Global (eustatic) rise 1.8 mm/yr Regional subsidence flexural unloading Laurentide removal 1 mm/yr Psuty and Collins (1986) Local subsidence due to water withdrawal & compaction 1 mm/yr
17 Effects of Sea-Level Rise: Coastal Flooding Coastal marshes cannot retreat as they must to survive sea-level rise Increased effects of storm surges 10:30:03 AM Wed, October 12, Ammerman & McClennen 2000
18 Effects of Sea-Level Rise: Land Loss Function of rise and gradient (1:1000) Sea level rise by 2100 ~40 cm (1.2 ft) IPCC?Worst case scenario by 2100 ~1 m (3 ft) Would result in a natural movement beach ft Fight back with replenishment ($ and often does not work) Estimated land area susceptible to inundation at case study area, Cape May Point, New Jersey. After Cooper et al. (2005)
19 Effects of Global Warming: Storms (Extreme Sea-level Events) Have storms increased? 1) Storm frequency: debatable 1) Hurricane intensity: Yes Storms: NJ most damage from Nor easters Hurricanes (cat. 1 or >) hits Ammerman & McClennen 2000
20 Should I Sell My Shore House? Do not sell your shore house: insure! Best estimate 40 cm (1.2 ft) by 2100 Though Time may be right, worry?worst case 1 m (3 ft) by 2100 Increased storm intensity More erosion More cost to replenish Loss of marshland Lose beaches View of NY harbor from JOIDES Resolution in an ice-free world (73 m rise)
21 Should I Sell My Shore House? Do not sell your shore house: insure! Best estimate 40 cm (1.2 ft) by 2100 Though Time may be right, worry?worst case 1 m (3 ft) by 2100 IPCC (2001)
22 Global Rise Fairbanks (1989) summary of Lighty Caribbean reefs 1.1 mm/y ybp Global rise 5000 ka to ~1800: 1 mm/yr
23 1.5 m Sea-level Rise Impacts U.S. Coast 1.5 m (5 ft) rise causes beach to migrate 1500 m 1:1000 gradient Titus and Richman, Climate Research, CR 18: (2001)
24 Lessons from the Southern Louisianna Top: land loss in yellow mm/year subsidence vs. NJ 2-3 mm/year But the real effect is storms! Dauphin Is. After Ivan After Katrina
25 YUV420 codec decompressor
26 Venice: Poster Child for Sea-level Rise Piazza San Marco acqua alta Ammerman & McClennen 2000
27 Effects of Global Warming on the Jersey Shore Increased storm intensity More erosion More cost to replenish Loss of marshland Lose beaches View of NY harbor from the JOIDES Resolution in an ice-free world (73 m rise)
28 Should I Sell My Shore House? Do not sell your shore house: insure! Best estimate 40 cm (1.2 ft) by 2100 Though Time may be right, worry Worst case 1 m (3 ft) by 2100 Gore World IPCC (2001)
29 Especially New Jersey?Worst case scenario by 2100 ~1 m (3 ft)
30 Effects of Global Warming on the Jersey Shore Increased storm intensity More erosion More cost to replenish Loss of marshland Lose beaches View of NY harbor from the JOIDES Resolution in an ice-free world (73 m rise)
31 Effects of Sea-Level Rise: Coastal Flooding Increased effects of storm surges After Cooper et al. (2005) derived from Psuty Ammerman & McClennen 2000
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