Experiential and Visual Impacts of Energy on the Pennsylvania Landscape

Transcription

1 Lacey Goldberg (Pennsylvania State University) Timothy Murtha, PhD (Pennsylvania State University) Experiential and Visual Impacts of Energy on the Pennsylvania Landscape Research Supported by The Hamer Center for Community Penn State University

2 OUTLINE: I. Marcellus Shale and the Eastern United States II. Visual and Experiential Impacts III. State Parks and Natural Areas IV. Crowdsourced Scenic/Visual Amenity V. Predictive Models

3 I. Marcellus Shale and the Eastern United States II. Visual and Experiential Impacts III. State Parks and Natural Areas IV. Crowdsourced Scenic/Visual Amenity V. Predictive Models

4 MARCELLUS SHALE

5 P I T T S B U R G H p i t t s b u r g h P e n n s y l v a n i a f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g s h a l e g a s d e v e l o p m e n t a n d i m p a c t s : 1) Largely rural and depopulated 2) Marcellus region watersheds are 91% Forest and Agriculture Landcover (2011 USGS LUCL) 3) Marcellus regional watersheds average 77% forested hectares, while non Marcellus basins average just 48%. 4) There are 3 times as many dirt roads in the Marcellus basins. 5) 400% more developed high intensity residential outside of the Marcellus Region M A R C E L L U S R E G I O N m a r c e l l u s r e g i o n SULLIVAN COUNTY, PA RURAL SHALE GAS EXPLORATION 6,428 people, 15/square mile Projected gas wells in Sullivan County 6,000 Lifetime estimated royalty per well $1.6m $1.6m x 6,000/6428 = $1.5m/person

6 2009

7 2010

8 2011

9 2012

10 2013

11 2014

12 2015

13 I. Marcellus Shale and the Eastern United States II. Visual and Experiential Impacts III. State Parks and Natural Areas IV. Crowdsourced Scenic/Visual Amenity V. Predictive Models

14 Well Flaring

15 Nighttime Working Lights and Light Pollution

16 Traffic and Roads Rock trucks, tankers, oversized vehicles

17 Roads

18 Roads

19 Pipeline clearing

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21 During installation and after re-vegetation

22 STATE PARKS & NATURAL AREAS I. Marcellus Shale and the Eastern United States II. Visual and Experiential Impacts III. State Parks and Natural Areas IV. Crowdsourced Scenic/Visual Amenity V. Predictive Models

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29 PA Nature Conservancy 2006

30 12.14 Hectares PA Nature Conservancy 2006

31 STATE PARKS & NATURAL AREAS

32 STATE PARKS & NATURAL AREAS

33 STATE PARKS & NATURAL AREAS 5% Land Use 47% 48% Forest Farmland Other

34 Hectares

35 I. Marcellus Shale and the Eastern United States II. Visual and Experiential Impacts III. State Parks and Natural Areas IV. Crowdsourced Scenic/Visual Amenity V. Predictive Models

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37 Devil s Elbow

38 Bark Cabin

39 Miller Run

40 East Branch Swamp

41 Pine Creek Gorge Natural Area

42 Mt. Pigsah

43 Bucktail State Park

44 Well Pad Visibility

45 Well Pad Visibility

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51 I. Marcellus Shale and the Eastern United States II. Visual and Experiential Impacts III. State Parks and Natural Areas IV. Crowdsourced Scenic/Visual Amenity V. Predictive Models

52 M A X I M U M E N T R O P Y + M A X E N T We are interested in devising a model of a species environmental requirements from a set of occurrence localities, together with a set of environmental variables that describe some of the factors that likely influence the suitability of the environment for the species. Phillips et al. 2006: 232 A niche-based model represents an approximation of a species ecological niche in the examined environmental dimensions [and] thus represents an approximation of the species realized niche (i.e., smaller than it s fundamental niche). software and articles:

53 M O D E L I N P U T S : 2009permits 2010permits 2011permits 2012permits 2013permits 2014permits allpermits depth.asc disttopipe.asc disttoroads.asc landuse.asc naturalarea.asc slope.asc thickness.asc water.asc marcellusprobability ALL MODELS WERE CROSSVALIDATED

54 HIGH PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT: SUMMARIZED BY BASIN (SUB-WATERSHED)

55 HIGH PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT: SUMMARIZED BY BASIN (SUB-WATERSHED)

56 L E A S T C O S T S U R FA C E M O D E L S :

57 dirt and gravel roads forested area probability streams and water bodies + = wetlands a new shape of pennsylvania? agriculture and pasture

58 T H A N K Y O U Research Supported by The Hamer Center for Community Penn State University Lacey Goldberg (Pennsylvania State University) Timothy Murtha, PhD (Pennsylvania State University)