Adapting to Sea Level Rise: Halifax Harbour,, Nova Scotia
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1 Adapting to Sea Level Rise: Halifax Harbour,, Nova Scotia Roger Wells Regional and Community Planning Halifax Regional Municipality Contributors: Donald Forbes, NRCAN Chris Hopkinson, NSCC John Charles, HRM NS Dept. of Energy Halifax Port Authority Dalhousie University D.L. Forbes GSC 2 Oct 2003
2 Outline Halifax Harbour Plan Science Input LiDAR Mapping Sea Level Rise Modelling Municipal Policy and Regulation
3 Halifax Harbour Plan Component of Regional Plan Harbour Plan: - marine industrial - transportation - recreation - residential - environment Challenge: Finite harbour frontage/ Competing interests Deliverable: Find the Balance
4 The Wake-Up Call! Hurricane Juan, Charlottetown LiDAR & HRM s ClimateSmart Initiative The Mission: - Status quo Not an option - Science/Data is Essential - Secure Allies - Sell the Product
5 Airborne LiDAR: a tool for building high-resolution DEMs Point Pleasant Park, Halifax, December 1998
6 The Science: Key IPCC AR4 findings on coasts Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades Impacts of climate change on coasts are exacerbated by increasing human pressures Adaptation costs for vulnerable coasts are much less than the costs of inaction.
7 Components of Relative Sea Level Nova Scotia land mass is sinking Ocean level is rising Relative sea-level change combines the two relative rise eustatic rise sea level isostatic subsidence
8 1.1 1 Halifax 490 Halifax NS mean annual water level WL (m CD) Relative sea level at the Halifax tide gauge came up 25 cm from 1920 to 2000 (>31 cm/century) YEAR
9 Past, Present and Future Global Sea Level IPCC AR4 2007
10 Ongoing Subsidence Nova Scotia land mass sinking at the rate of 1.7mm/year (17mm/century)
11 Sea-level Rise Scenario Sea level rise of 0.59 m + subsidence of 0.17 m = 0.76 m relative sea level rise Likely an underestimate AR4 estimates do not take account of accelerated outflow from major ice sheets Observed global sea level appears to be well above model projections observed projected Rahmstorf et al., 2007, Science (316)
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15 High Tide After 100 Years of Sea Level Rise
16 Science to Policy We have the Science: LiDAR & SLR modelling Steps to Policy: 1. Political acceptance of SLR scenario - conservative/doomsday/best guess 2. Determine Vulnerability - land use/infrastructure Scientific discussion at Shediac Town Hall [May 2003]
17 Science to Policy 3. Develop Range of Tools - avoidance -elevation - ground floor uses - floodproofing measures (site/building) Scientific discussion at Shediac Town Hall [May 2003]
18 Science to Policy 4. Implementation: Advisory vs.regulatory - community/stakeholder engagement - public lands (advisory?) HRM DND Halifax Port Authority Waterfront Development Corp. - private lands (regulatory?) - implement at development/redevelopment application stage Scientific discussion at Shediac Town Hall [May 2003]
19 Science to Policy 5. Adoption of Policies/Regs. by Council 6. Regular monitoring & updating Conclusion: Cooperation and Collaboration key - science - financial/in-kind assistance - political influence Thank you. Scientific discussion at Shediac Town Hall [May 2003]
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