Comments on the slides. Disaster resilience and anticipation:data, methods, and models, and emerging adaptation strategies

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1 Comments on the slides Disaster resilience and anticipation:data, methods, and models, and emerging adaptation strategies Yoshihiro KIZAWA, Toshiyuki HASHIMOTO, JAPAN Meeting of Senior Officials of the Carnegie Group countries + WB & UN In Brussels, 6 December 2012 Slide1 Disaster resilience and anticipation:data, methods, and models, and emerging adaptation strategies Slide2 Disasters in Japan Prevention and mitigation of natural disaster is the national challenge. Japan has long suffered from natural disaster, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, floods, heavy snow and so on because of the feature and location of Japanese islands. That is to say, Japanese islands are consisted of 4 plates, having seismic and volcanic activities, situated in the area of Asian Monsoon, often having heavy rain during rainy season or typhoon. As a result, Japan has made efforts to prevent and mitigate various kinds of natural disaster for a long time. (The characteristic like this applies to the whole Asia region.) Slide3 Natural Disasters during in the world When we look to Asian countries including Japan, Asia occupies about 37% in number of disasters, about 59% in death toll, about 88% in the total number of affected people, and about 45% in economic damage for the 29years between 1977 and 2006 in the world. When we look at concrete natural disasters, we can recall, other than Great East Japan Earthquake, Great Sichuan Earthquake, China in 2008, Great Earthquake off Sumatra in 2004, catastrophic flood in Thailand last year. (According to a survey, out of top 10 biggest disasters of the world, Asia occupies 6 in death toll, 10 in total number of affected people, 6 in economic damage.) Slide4 Risk Index of Natural Disaster Slide5 Damage of Great East Japan EQ In particular, the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake caused unprecedented damage with nearly 16,000 killed and 3,000 missing people, 325 thousand evacuees, with total damage in stock of over 200 billion US$. To reconstruct, we need about 280 billion

2 US$ (for the first 5 years 230 billion US$), accounting for 4.5% of Japan s GDP. To provide 230 billion US$, the Japanese government decided 2.1% increase in income tax for the coming 25 years, took other measures. (the cut of expenditure and the disposal of its holding stocks. The accident of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, which was directly caused by tsunami and subsequent loss of electricity, has made reconstruction difficult. And it has seriously influenced the future energy policy in Japan. Slide6 Importance of Disaster Prevention and Reduction using Science & Technology As we acknowledge we can t stop natural disaster, the most important purpose in policy is prevention and mitigation against natural disaster. For this purpose, science & technology can contribute to the preparation and anticipation of disaster, early detection and transmission just after disaster, emergency action and urgent support, information sharing and so on. In the Japanese Science & Technology Basic Plan, the promotion of the research & development for the prevention & mitigation of disaster is indicated, including the prediction and estimation of natural disaster based on observation. But needless to say, natural phenomena often occur beyond prediction, so we have to make policy and research plan considering the limitation of science & technology. We have to take measures by education, cooperation with various fields of society, but especially education for disaster prevention is important. Relating this point, the analysis of evacuee s attitude from the case of the Great earthquake is the following illustration. Slide7 Casualty analysis of the dead people and lessons learned from it Group 1 is relied coastal Barrier or neglected warning. About case of neglected warning, when Chile earthquake occurred in 2010, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) announced Tsunami warning but actual Tsunami height is almost 1 meter. After that Newspaper reported that JMA announce is overestimation, so some person did not think seriously about JMA s announce on March 11. Group 2 is believed Quick Warning or believed pre-assessment. Unfortunately after the earthquake, they could not hear new information because of power outage. JMA s first announce that Tsunami height is almost 5 meter initially. But JAM s caution changed from 5 meter to over 10 meter. About case of believed pre-assessment, Fukushima (including Fukusima atomic power plant) case are categorized in this situation. Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) estimated that maximum height of

3 Tsunami is almost 6 meter along Fukushima coastal area. But actual Tsunami is higher than 15 meter. Group 3 is behaved safety-first Many person who can survive from Tsunami disaster scented danger of Tsunami when 3.11 earthquake occurred. They felt that this earthquake is different from ordinary case and they evacuated voluntarily before announce of JMA s caution. Kamaishi miracle case applies to this group. Almost students voluntarily changed evacuation point and escape more safety and higher land from preliminary evacuation area Slide8 Limitations of Infrastructures Prior to disaster, as for the action based on science and technology side, it s important to enhance the social infrastructure such as earthquake resistance of buildings, embankments prepared for tsunami and to improve the precision of anticipation of disaster. As for enhancing the infrastructure, for Example, along the Pacific Ocean side in Japan, 812km, 15 % of the embankment is lower than the predicted height of tsunami, 2,002km, 36% of the embankment is not recognized resistant to such earthquake like the Hyogo Great earthquake. Regarding the super bank plan which makes the embankment as to withstand one of the conceivable biggest tsunami in coming 200 years, and makes the width of the embankments as 30 times as its height, which will be 200m to 400m width, Japanese government reviewed the plan and made the scale much smaller, considering that it would take huge amount of money, over 150 billion US$ and long time, 400 years to accomplish. Japanese government revised the building law at 1981 and prescribed to design buildings resistant to such a big earthquake like the Hanshin great earthquake. Now we aim to improve the rate of earthquake resistance of building up to 90% by 2015 fiscal year, but now only 60 % of the buildings such as government offices, universities, medical institutes are resistant. Of course one of main reason of this is limited resources. (40 % of the medical instruction, and 15% of the municipal schools, where local inhabitants will take refuge from disaster are not resistant.) Slide9 Reconstruction to earthquake resistance building - E-Defense On the other hand, it is very important to research and develop the improvement of technology for earthquake resistance as effective as possible. National Research Institute of Earth Science and Disaster Prevention has been

4 utilizing E-Defense, the 3-D Full-Scale Earthquake testing facility, largest shaking table in the world, and earthquake motions are input to test structures to investigate their failure process and mechanisms during after earthquakes. Based on data obtained from the tests, more advanced technologies are established and verified in order to mitigate earthquake damage to structures. Slide10 Example of an experiment Slide11 Liquefaction Countermeasure Liquefaction occurred at the reclaimed land in the Great East Japan earthquake like this picture, water and wastewater pipes were broken due to soil displacement. To reconstruct resilient infrastructure, earthquake-resistant joints are used. Joint can move within the allowable clearance. Slide12 UrEDAS (Urgent Earthquake Detection & Alarm System) As for the technology of railway safety, we introduce Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System, we call it UrEDAS for short, abbreviation of the name, which means starting to quake in Japanese. Just after 2:46p.m. when the Great East Japan earthquake occurred, UrEDAS detected P-wave, then one second after the alarm was sent, the system started operating and Tohoku-Sinkansen was stopped to transmit electricity, started the emergency brake to slow down and stopped automatically. Thanks to the system, the Tohoku-Sinkansen didn t run off the tracks and overturn even in spite of its operating time. Slide13 Seismic and volcanic observation networks (Hi-net, F-net, K-NET, KiK-net, and V-net) To improve the precision of the prediction for natural disaster, we need to understand the mechanism of the natural phenomena based on observation. To carry out this, we need to upgrade observation technologies and also need to both maintain sustained observations and to further expand the organization. But it will be difficult for this to reach an immediate realistic point. Slide14 Ocean bottom cabled network along Japan trench The precise tsunami alarm could not announced because of lack of data by inadequate ocean bottom cabled network. The net work at approximately 150 locations along Japan trench is urgently under construction. It is expected to contribute to give warning after

5 occurrence of tsunami. Slide15 30-year possibility of offshore and inland earthquakes Hanshin-Awaji Great Earthquake occurred in 1995 in Japan, our experiences in this earthquake were not used for the Great East Japan earthquake in a good way. The research of Earthquake in Japan is highly appreciated internationally, but the Japanese scientists on earthquakes have seriously reflected on the basic idea of understanding mechanism of earthquake. They were trying to understand the mechanism of earthquake generation along plate boundaries of Japan on a specific asperity model in spite of the complexity of the natural phenomena and were not able to recognize the potential of a giant seismic event by assuming that the Pacific plate was only weakly coupled to the continental plate near the trench axis and sliding constantly. Slide16 Difficulties and Limitations of Prediction of Disasters So scientists have admitted it is difficult to foresee when, where and what size of earthquake would occur on the present state of science and technology before its occurrence. From now on, it is essential to integrate knowledge from a variety of disciplines, including sociology, archaeology, history and other fields of human and social sciences to help mitigate future disaster. And also it is essential to incorporate opinions of overseas experts and expand the breadth of research potential by including contributions from geology and electromagnetics. If I may show the importance of geology, for example, based on the surveys of tsunami deposits in coastal areas, the damages by the Giant tsunami occurred in late 9th century -we call it Jyogan no tsunami- was found almost equivalent to tsunami hitting Japan last year and the risk of tsunami to Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant was indicated but no measure prepared for it was taken. On the other hand, at the Onagawa nuclear power plant located north of Fukushima, damages from tsunami was avoided because important facilities were moved to high ground. Slide17 Forecasting of Extreme Weather As for weather, development of sensor and radar, collection and analysis of data obtained from observation, improvement of super computer are contributing to improving the precision of the prediction. It is also important to anticipate the frequency and scale of disaster based on the knowledge of statistics. Advanced technology and use of X-band multi-parameter radar (MP radar) is making it possible to forecast extreme weather phenomena. MP radar can detect clouds

6 configuration which brings down heavy localized rainfall, tornado associated with global warming. So X-band MP radar is expected to be utilized for the anticipation and preparation for floods. Slide /08/05 Local Heavy Rainfall Case Left is JMA [Japan Meteorological Agency] s information. Right is MP radar s information. The resolution of MP radar is quite high as you can see. Slide19 Frame Work of International Co-researches of Climate Change International cooperative research projects for climate change, such as IPCC, are important. Another example of international cooperative research project, GEOSS is shown here. GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) is beneficial as it might have been mentioned at Carnegie Group meeting This is the comprehensive earth observation system consisting of systems integrating satellites, ground and ocean earth observation and information systems. GEOSS aims to contribute to 9 fields that will benefit society; such as 1disaster, 2climate, 3water, 4energy. Currently 87 countries, EC and 61 international organizations participate. Japan has proactively been involved in GEOSS. As part of the measures, Japan is developing and operating DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System). More specifically, Japan is developing and operating important tools that connect observation data to benefits of mankind. Slide20 Providing Damage Observation Data of the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster Left is taken on March 14 and Right is February 23 by JAXA satellite "DAICHI" This is Northern area of Fukushima, and blue area of left photo is inundation area by Tsunami. Slide21 Importance of Education for Disaster Prevention One example is shown that the education for disaster prevention achieve a successful outcome though this is the territory apart from science and technology. Kamaishi city, which was devastated by the high tsunami with over 1,000 killed or missing, had been making efforts on education for disaster prevention eagerly because the city is located at the coastal area of Miyagi prefecture and had been hit by tsunamis several times in history.

7 In this education there are three principles,1firstly Don t be caught by assumption2 secondly Do as much as you can 3thirdly Take the lead in evacuation. As a result, most of about 3,000 students of elementary and junior high schools decided with a will of their own to ran away to the safety ground higher than the preliminary evacuation area. On their way to evacuate, they helped lower grade students, infants and elderly persons. This case is called miracle of Kamaishi because the mortality rate was only 0.2% although 5 students absent from schools at the day were killed unfortunately. Slide22 Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) Partnering with developing countries for innovation A program called SATREPS (Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development) is shown as an example of the international collaborative research. Global issues like global warming are not only the issues of specific countries or region but also issues of all countries and the positive commitment from scientific community such as development of new technologies and acquisition of new knowledge is essential to solve them. Especially in the developing countries vulnerable to global issues, research and development based on local needs is required. Then Japan has set up this program to aim at the enhancement of cooperative research including fostering talented persons between Japan and developing countries to contribute to sustainable development of human society. JST (Japan S&T Agency) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) are jointly implementing this program to aim at, Enhancing cooperation in science & technology between Japan & developing countries. Development and application of new technology, acquisition of new knowledge for improving the standard of science & technology, in order to solve global issues. Capacity development Since 2008, 66 projects in 34 countries including Asia, Africa and middle or southern American countries are implemented. Support budget; approx. 100 mil yen on average with ODA. Support period; 3~5 years. 11 projects are implemented in the area of disaster prevention.