Quantitative Analysis of Criminal Justice Data Summer 2009 OVERVIEW OF SEMINAR STRUCTURE

Transcription

1 Quantitative Analysis of Criminal Justice Data Summer 2009 James P. Lynch Seminar Leader OVERVIEW OF SEMINAR STRUCTURE Individual Projects: We have planned with each of you to arrive with a project in mind and a data set available to you. This project is crucial to integrating the discussions we will have in the seminar into a personally meaningful framework. Individual presentations on the project will be given at the beginning and end of the seminar. At the beginning, participants will describe the theoretical and/or policy rationale for the project and the plan for analysis. In the final days of the seminar, you will provide a summary of progress and findings. Seminar Meetings: The Seminar will meet each day from 12:30 to 2:30 p.m. in room G150A in the Perry Building. Additionally, several lunches may be scheduled with guest speakers between 11:15 and 12:30 p.m. When we have a lunch meeting, the seminar will usually end by 2:30 p.m., although it may run over in some cases. We will also attempt to schedule individual or small group consultations with speakers as appropriate. Discussions within the seminars will center on issues raised in the readings, by speakers and by the demands of your particular project. To provide some continuity as we move across data sets, I will highlight specific methodological (e.g. combining contextual and individual levels of analysis, accommodating measurement error) and substantive themes (e.g. establishing and interpreting disparity in CJS decision-making) that are common across data sets. Information to be Covered: The seminar will provide an introduction to the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (NCJDA) and a number of data sets available in the Archive. Emphasis will be given to Bureau of Justice Statistics data that describe the principal activities of the criminal justice system. These data describe 1) the incidence of crime (NCVS), 2) police response (UCR and NIBRS), and 3) the execution of sentences (NCRP, NSPI, SILJ). These data sets will be described briefly since most of the basic descriptive data will be in the readings. Participants will have the opportunity to manipulate these data in lab sessions. More complex issues pertaining to sampling error, measurement error and file structure issues will be described and methods for dealing with these issues will be presented. Our goal at the end of the Workshop is to have participants ready to use these data correctly to inform theoretical and methodological issues.

2 Readings: Recommended readings on the outline that follows acquaint participants with: (1) the design and uses of these data (2) methodological issues relevant to the use of the data sets; and 3) logistical problems that complicate the use of these data. These readings are available on the Z drive in the Lynch subdirectory SCHEDULE OF TOPICS AND SPEAKERS June 22 Introductory Session Introduction to the Archive Tim Bynum, Tom Zelenock Introduction to Computing at ICPSR Ed Czilli Computer Lab Presentation of Preliminary Plans for Research Projects June 23 National Criminal Victimization Survey and Kindred Data Sets--Jim Lynch Survey design and change overtime Information content Survey supplements File structures Helpful hints The "Ragu" effect Rennison, Callie Marie and Michael Rand, ok 2007 Introduction to the National Crime Victimization Survey. In James P. Lynch and Lynn Addington (eds.) Understanding Crime Incidence Statistics: Revisiting the Divergence of the NCVS and the UCR. New York, Cambridge University Press Biderman, A.D. and J.P. Lynch Understanding Crime Incidence Statistics: Why the UCR Diverges from the NCS. New York: Springer. (Chapter 1) Baum, Katrina, Shannon Catalono, and Michael Rand 2009 Stalking Victimization in the United States Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice. Statistics 0k June 24 Structuring and Using NCVS Data Files (Lab Session) Structuring Files Estimating Rates Producing person-level files

3 Producing household-level files aggregating up person-level information Most of the crucial information on these topics can be found in the Resource Guide assembled by NACJD staff June 25 NCVS: Substantive Issues and Measurement Errors--Jim Lynch Measurement errors in the NCS Implications of measurement errors for substantive research Longitudinal aspects of NCVS Cantor, David and James P. Lynch Self-report Surveys as Measures of Crime and Criminal Victimization. Criminal Justice 2000: Volume 4: Measurement and Analysis of Crime and Justice, Washington, D.C. National Institute of Justice. Ok Cantor, David and James P. Lynch ok 2005 Exploring the Effects of Changes in Design on the Analytical uses of the NCVS Data. Journal of Quantitative Criminology. Vol.30, No23 Andromachi Tseloni and Ken Pease * 2004 Repeat Personal Victimization: Random Effects, Event Dependence and Unexplained Heterogeneity. The British Journal of Criminology 44: Xie, Min, Gregory Pegarsky, James Lynch and David Mc Dowall Prior Police Service and the 2006 Decision to Call the Police. Justice Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 4, pp ok Dugan, Laura "The Effects of Criminal Victimization on a Household s Moving Decision Second Research Paper. H.J. Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management. Carnegie Mellon University Ybarra, Lynn and Sharon Lohr 2002 "Estimates of Repeat Victimization Using the National Crime Victimization Survey." Journal of Quantitative Criminology, vol.18, No.1 pp.1-21.ok June 26 BJS Overview and Preview of Recidivism Data Base Guest Speakers Howard Snyder and Ramona Rantala, BJS June 29 Complex Samples and Complex Standard Error Calculation Simple and Complex Samples Standard Error Computation in Complex Surveys Linearization Balanced Group Methods

4 Lohr, Sharon Replicates General Variance Functions Categorical Data Analysis with Complex Surveys Regression with Complex Surveys Using Various Software Packages for Estimating Variances in the NCVS Sampling Design and Analysis. Boston, Duxbury Press. Chapters 9, ,11 June 30 The Uniform Crime Reporting Program Outline data collections in UCR Emphasis on Return A Organization of data system Estimation issues Linkage to other Census systems Error Structure Barnett-Ryan, Cynthia 2007 Introduction to the Uniform Crime Reporting System in James P. Lynch and Lynn Addington (eds.) Understanding Crime Incidence Statistics: Revisiting the divergence of the UCR and the NCVS Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime Reporting Handbook. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, The Federal Bureau of Investigation. Maltz, Michael 1999 Bridging Gaps in Police Crime Data. Washington, D.C. Bureau of Justice Statistics ok and Targonski, J A note on the use of county-level crime data. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 18: Measurement and Other Errors in County-Level UCR Data: A Reply to Lott and Whitley. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 19: Ok July 1 The Uniform Crime Reports Supplementary Homicide Reports Colin Loftin System Design and change over time Information content and change Strengths and weaknesses as research tool The missing data problem

5 Helpful hints Cantor, David, and Lawrence E. Cohen.Comparing measures of homicide trends: 1980 Methodological and substantive differences in the Vital Statistics and Uniform Crime Report time series ( ). Social Science Research, 9: Fox, James Alan. Missing Data Problems in the SHR: Imputing Offender and Relationship 2004 Characteristics. Homicide Studies, 8: Land, Kenneth C., Patricia L. McCall, and Lawrence E. Cohen. Structural covariates of 1990 homicide rates. American Journal of Sociology, 95: Parker, Karen and Pruitt, Matthew V. How the West was one: Explaining the similarities in 2000 race-specific homicide rates in the West and South. Social Forces, 78: Rokaw, William M., James Mercy, and Jack Smith. Comparing dath certificate data with FBI 1990 crime reporting statistics on U.S. Public Health Reports, 105: Wiersema, Brian, Colin Loftin, and David McDowall. A Comparison of SHR and Vital 2000 Statistics Homicide Estimates for U.S. Counties. Homicide Studies, 4: July 2 July 3 July 6 Al Blumstein Holiday (no class) Law Enforcement Administrative and Management Statistics and Kindred Data on the Police History of data on the police industry Structure of the sample Instrumentation and data collection procedures Substantive issues that can be addressed Linkage and other issues Error Structure Hickman, Matthew. Citizen Complaints about Police Use of Force. Washington, 2006 D.C. Bureau of Justice Statistics and Brian Reaves. Local Police Departments, Washington, 2006 Bureau of Justice Statistics Reaves, Brian. State and Local Law Enforcement Training Academies, Washington, 2009 Bureau of Justice Statistics

6 Mumola, Christopher. Arrest Related Deaths in the United States, Washington, 2007 Bureau of Justice Statistics July 7 National Incident Based Reporting System--Guest Speaker Cindy Barnett, Federal Bureau of Investigation Introducing NIBRS How is NIBRS different from the UCR? What can NIBRS be used for and what shouldn t it be used for? How should it be used? Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime Reporting National Incident-Based Reporting System: Data Collection Guidelines. Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation. Rantala, Ramona 2000 Effects of NIBRS on Crime Statistics.. Washington, D.C. Bureau of Justice Statistics Maxfield, Michael 1999 The National Incident Based Reporting System: Research and Policy Applications. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Vol. 15,pp ok Chilton, Roland and John Jarvis 2000 Victims and Offenders in Two Crime Statistics Programs: A comparison of NIBRS and NCVS.. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Vol. 15, pp July 8 Using NIBRS What can be investigated with NIBRS, Limitations, File Structuring. Lynn Addington, Tom Zelenock and Jim Lynch Building analysis files Addressing coverage and missing data problems Innovative uses of NIBRS data Review the resource guide on NIBRS. Eitle, David, Lisa Stolzenberg and Stewart D Alessio 2003 Police Organizational Factors, the Racial Composition of the Police and the Probability of Arrest. Justice Quarterly12: Addington, Lynn 2008 Assessing the Extent of Non-Response Bias on NIBRS Estimates of Violent Crime. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice,

7 July 9 State Court Processing Statistics and Federal Justice Statistics and Research Program Browse the website-- The Urban Institute Federal Criminal Case Processing 2002 with Trends from with Reconciled Data. Washington, D.C. Bureau of Justice Statistics. Motivans, Mark 2008 Federal Justice Statistics, Washington, D.C. Bureau of Justice Statistics ok and Tracey Kyckelhahn Federal Prosecution of Human Trafficking, Washington, D.C. Bureau of Justice Statistics. Ok Kyckelhahn, Tracey and Thomas Cohen Felony Defendants in Large Urban Counties, Washington, D.C. Bureau of Justice Statistics. Ok Perry, Steven W Prosecutors in State Courts, Washington, D.C. Bureau of Justice Statistics. Ok July 10 Correctional Statistics--NCRP, SILJ, SISCF William Sabol, Bureau of Justice Statistics Describing individual data collections Strengths and weaknesses of each Substantive uses--describing criminal careers describing attributes of criminal events conditions of confinement distribution and effects of imprisonment in society Methodological issues problems with modeling dynamic populations Missing data Small denominators and extreme values Blumstein, Alfred and Alan Beck 1999 Factors Contributing to the Growth in U.S. Prison Populations. in Michael

8 Tonry (ed.) Crime and Justice: A Review of Research. Chicago, University of Chicago Lynch, James P. and William J. Sabol 2003 Assessing the Longer-run Consequences of Incarceration. in Darnell Hawkins, Samuel Myers and Randolph Stone (eds.) Crime Control and Social Justice: The Delicate Balance. Westport, CT Greenwood Press Prisoner Re-entry in Perspective. Crime Policy Report, Washington, DC The Urban Institute, Vol.3, September Levitt, Stephen 1997 The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Legislation. Quarterly Journal of Economics (May 1996): Sevigny, Eric Excessive Uniformity in Federal Drug Sentencing. Journal of Quantitative Criminology. Vol.25. No. 2, p July 11 July 14 July 15 July 16 PREA and Other Things Guest Speaker- Allen Beck Presentation of Progress on Individual Projects Presentation of Progress on Individual Projects Presentation of Progress on Individual Projects