Freight Facilities Impact on Land-Use A Temporal Analysis. Ben Zietlow Bradford Winkelman Mohamad Mzanar

Transcription

1 Freight Facilities Impact on Land-Use A Temporal Analysis Ben Zietlow Bradford Winkelman Mohamad Mzanar

2 Research Motivation and Objective MAP-21 Directive: Section 1203, Pg. 120 National Goals and Performance Management Measures Pg. 120, Section 1203 (amends Section 150 title 23) Pg. 121, Section (b)(5)-one of the national goals for the U.S. is to improve the national freight network, strengthen the ability of rural communities to access national and international trade markets, and support regional economic development. Objective: Identify the impact of freight facilities on freight generating land-use of surrounding areas using a spatiotemporal analysis approach Requirement: Free data, enabling independent replication of results 1

3 Research Challenges Lack of land-use data for Metropolitan Statistical Areas When available, often inconsistent definitions from one region to another Historical data unavailable Possible Alternatives: Focus on transportation/manufacturing employment changes instead of land-use changes Predict freight-generating land-use changes using widely available land cover change data 2

4 Data Sources Census Transportation Planning Package 2000: Tabulated from decennial census long-form sample : Tabulated from American Community Survey sample, collected continuously over a five-year period Available at the census tract level National Land Cover Database 16-class land cover classification scheme that has been applied consistently across the conterminous United States at a spatial resolution of 30 meters Look at change between 2001 and

5 Data Notes Census Transportation Planning Package All ACS estimates are period estimates and are interpreted as the average values over the full time period Five year estimates are shortest available for census tract data (privacy concerns) Sampling error Choropleth Map Problem Modifiable Areal Unit Problem 4

6 5 Data Notes

7 Case Study: Louisville, Kentucky UPS Worldport Expansion at Louisville International Airport April 1999: Three phase expansion begins September 2000: First phase opens Capacity increased by 30,000 packages per hour to 245,000 July 2001: Second phase opens Capacity increased by another 30,000 packages per hour to 275,000 September 2002: Third phase opens Capacity increased by another 29,000 packages per hour to 304,000 May 2006: A Second two phase expansion begins April 2010: Two phase expansion completes Capacity increased by 111,000 packages per hour to 415,000 Timing of expansion matches well with available data 6

8 Louisville Air Cargo Volumes Louisville International Airport (SDF) did not see the same sharp drop in air cargo volumes seen across the US during the Great Recession SDF also saw higher growth rates prior to the recession 7

9 Louisville Air Cargo Volumes SDF saw an increase from 21% to 35% of its share of MAFC cargo volumes between 2000 and 2012 The region also saw consolidation of cargo volumes into fewer airports 8

10 Louisville Location Quotients Transportation/warehousing/utilities and manufacturing jobs make up a larger portion of the job market in Louisville than at the national level 9

11 10 Louisville Transportation Infrastructure

12 11 Transportation Employment: 2000 vs

13 Transportation Employment: Sampling error results in many estimates that are not significantly different from zero. 12

14 13 Transportation Employment Change

15 14 Transportation Employment: Location Quotient

16 15 Transportation Employment: Location Quotient Change

17 16 Transportation Employment Change: Hotspot Analysis

18 17 Transportation Employment Change: Hotspot Analysis (No Airport)

19 18 Transportation Employment Location Quotient Change: Hotspot Analysis

20 Alternative Approach : Predict Land Use with NLCD Data Do changes in land cover coincide with changes in freight generating land use? For Louisville case, investigate relationships between changes in land cover and changes in transportation employment 19

21 20 Louisville Land Cover

22 21 Land Cover Change

23 Land Cover and Transportation Employment Each land cover change type was counted over each census tract Do high counts of any change type correlate with transportation employment changes? Initially, it seems there is a strong relationship 22

24 Land Cover and Transportation Employment A closer look, in which outliers are removed, indicates that the relationships are not very strong. 23

25 Land Cover and Transportation Employment There are lots of zeros or low values A better approach is to first try to classify a point as having employment change (+ or -) or not (zero) Use a subset of the predictors Used change codes that meet minimum variance requirement Focus on predictors best correlated with transportation employment change Defined an increase or decrease as having added or lost 30 or more jobs, respectively 24

26 Land Cover and Transportation Employment Tried a variety of classification methods: Support Vector Machine Performance (test dataset): Classifies most census tracts (accurately) as zero, but has difficulty predicting changes 25

27 Summary Land-use data not generally conducive for temporal analysis Spatiotemporal analysis indicates that the UPS Worldport expansion may have affected the location of transportation jobs No strong relationship between land cover changes and transportation employment at census tract level 26 Future Work: Create model to predict land use values (SEMCOG Data) Create Freight Use Index Land cover changes in less intense urban areas

28 Thank You