Explore temporal variability of the summer droughts in the SE US and its SST forcing
|
|
- Alexander Gibbs
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Explore temporal variability of the summer droughts in the SE US and its SST forcing Rong Fu, Wenhong Li 2, Lei Huang Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin 2 EAS/Georgia Tech In collaboration with Kingtse Mo at NCEP NOAA CPPA PI Meeting, September 29-October, 2008
2 Two droughts of the century since 2000: In Oct. 2007: there was less than 3 months of water left in the Atlanta city reservoir. (USA Today). Agriculture lost due to drought: $.3 billion in SE US during 2007 (National Drought Mitigation Center). Normalized May July mean precipitation anomalies (by σ) averaged over the Southeast United States (25N 36.5N, 76 9W)
3 Two measurements of drought in SE US used in this study: Early Summer Drought index: The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, 6-month) averaged for May- July season for the spatial domain of N, 76 9 W). SPI is influenced by integrated rainfall anomalies from winter to summer. Early Summer Precipitation Anomaly Index (PI): Mean precipitation anomalies in the SE US for May-July.
4 Droughts intensity and summer rainfall anomalies in the SE US appear to increase since late 970s: How do external SST changes and internal land surface feedback contribute to this increase in magnitude of summer rainfall anomalies and drought intensity in the SE US? SPI value summer mean SPI value CPC Summer 6 mon-spi (MJJ) year droughts Summer rainfall anomalies (MJJ) Data Source: CPC-Chen data
5 Previous works: Fewer studies on droughts in the SE US: Stahle & Cleaveland 992: decadelong spring rainfall extremes have been a prominent feature of SE US over the past 000 yrs. Mo & Schemn 2008: Seasonally varying SST forcing, e.g., La Nina leads to positive P in winter but negative P in summer the SE US; Seager et al. 2008: weak connection with SSTA, thus low predictability
6 However, We can learn from many works on droughts over the great plain: Tropical and extratropical Pacific influence: Namias 955,82; Chang and Wallace 987; Trenberth et al. 988; Mo et a. 997; Ting and Wang 997; Livezey and Smith 999; Barlow 200: Combined tropical Pacific and Atlantic influences, esp. for summer droughts: Hu & Feng 200a&b; Schubert et al. 2004a, b, 2007 Soil moisture feedbacks: Namias 99; Findell and Eltahir 997; Koster et al. 2000; Schubert et al. 2004, 07
7 Influence of Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SSTA as represented by the idealized SSTA runs by the US Drought Working Group: Linear Trend Pattern (LT) Pacific Pattern (Pac) Atlantic Pattern (Atl) Source: Schubert SSTA forcing based on leading EOFs of annual mean SST )
8 Modeled SSTA influence on summer drought in the SE US: Models disagree on the combination of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST forcings. GFDL and NSIPP: warmer Atlantic and/or warmer Pacific CAM3.0: Warmer Pacific and colder Atlantic GFDL AM2.: 0~- -~-2-2~-3-3~ NSIPP: 0~- -~-2-2~-3-3~-4 PcAw PwAc PwACLw UW mean Clim--- Clim--- cpca--- cpna--- cpw A--- npca--- cpca--- cpna--- cpwa--- npca--- npwa--- wpca--- wpna--- wpwa--- npwa--- wpca--- wpna--- wpwa--- nltcpwa nltwpca plt-exp nltcpwa Tw PcA plt-exp pltcpwa pltwpca unif-ex pl TcPwA pltwpca un if-e x ctpwtanlt-exp wtpcta- wtpwta- ctpwtanlt-exp wtpcta- wtpwta warm Pac cold Pac warm ATL cold ATL cntrl AMIP ave negative SPI ~- -~-2-2~-3-3~-4 wp wa runs npwa wpwa nltwpca plt-exp PnAn PcAc PcAn PcAw PnAc PnAw PwAc PwAn PwAw cwlc cwlw nnlc nnlw wclc wclw Uw AMIP PnAn PcAc PcAn PcAw PnAc PnAw PwAc PwAn PwAw cwlc cwlw nnlc nnlw wclc wclw Uw AMIP CAM3.0
9 Question: How well can global climate models simulate the variability of the early summer precipitation anomalies over the SE SU and its relationship with the SSTA of the Pacific and Atlantic?
10 Issue: The relative roles between the Pacific and Atlantic SSTA may vary on decadal scales: Hu & Peng 200a&b: Relative influence of the two completing factors, ENSO and southerly flow, on drought in the great plain varies at multi-decadal scales. Giannini et al. 200: NAO influences on the inter-decadal change of ENSO influences on Caribbean region. Approach: Wavelet and joint wavelet analysis (Torrence & Webster 999; Grinsted et al. 2004)
11 Model-data Comparison of the SPI ( ): CAM3.5 AMIP Models: CAM3.0 AMIP Observations: CPC-Chen -2yr NSIPP AMIP GFDL AM2. AMIP GPCP 3-5yr
12 Model-data Comparison of the summer PI ( ): Models: Observations: CAM3.5 AMIP CAM3.0 AMIP CPC-Chen -2yr NSIPP AMIP GFDL AM2. AMIP 3-5yr
13 What force the observed biannual variability? 5% against red noise SPI (6-8N, 20-60W) SE SU: N, 76-9W Both N. Atlantic SSTA and Nino 34 have significant bi-annual variations during late 980s and early 990s, coincide with spectrum peak of SPI and PI. What are the relative roles of biannual variations of Nino 34 and NAtl SSTA in determine the variabilities of SPI and PI? Ninn34:5S-5N, 70-20W N. Atl: 6-85N, 20-60W)
14 Coherence between PI-Nino, and PI-NAtl anomalies in models and observations-: GFDL AM2. AMIP: PI-Nino34: Observed PI-N. Atl: Too strong coherence on 3-5 yr scales, too weak biannual ENSO influences; Biannual Atlantic influence generally agree with observations. GFDL AM2., AMIP 0 o : in phase 90 o : Nino or NAtl Leads PI
15 Coherence between PI-Nino, and PI-NAtl anomalies in models and observations-2: NSIPP, AMIP: PI-Nino34: Observed PI-N. Atl: Better biannual ENSO influences, but missing biannual N. Atl. influence; Too strong coherence on 3-5 yr scales, NSIPP, AMIP 0 o : in phase 90 o : Nino or NAtl Leads PI
16 Coherence between PI-Nino, and PI-NAtl anomalies in models and observations-3: CAM3.5, AMIP PI-Nino34: Observed PI-N. Atl: Too strong biannual ENSO influences at wrong time, weaker biannual N. Atl. influence; Too strong coherence on 3-5 yr scales. CAM3.5, AMIP 0 o : in phase 90 o : Nino or NAtl Leads PI
17 Coherence between PI-Nino, and PI-NAtl anomalies in models and observations: PI-Nino34: Observed PI-N. Atl: CCM3.0, AMIP No biannual influence; Too strong coherence on 3-5 yr scales. CCM3.0, AMIP 0 o : in phase 90 o : Nino or NAtl Leads PI
18 Summary: For the 20-yr period of our analysis, droughts (SPI and PI) in SE US appear to be dominated by biannual variability, whereas droughts in the global climate model (we examined) are dominated by 4-yr variability. Biannual ENSO mode appears to contribute to the observed drought variability, whereas in models, 4-yr ENSO and perhaps N. tropical Atlantic modes appear to dominate the drought variability. Needs to exploring the dynamic configurations preferred by the biannual variability. Longer AMIP runs are needed for examine decadal variations of the drought!
19 How does Nino34 and N. Atlantic SSTA influence the circulation anomalies? Observations: N. Atlantic SSTA appears to project stronger influence on Z 200mb anomalies in the E. US and Caribbean Sea, whereas Nino 34 appears to project stronger influences on Z 200mb anomalies over the W. US. Regression δz 200mb -Nino 34 Regression δz 200mb -NAtl-SSTA NCEP,
20 How does Nino34 and N. Atlantic SSTA influence the circulation anomalies? Regression δz 200mb -Nino 34 δz 200mb -NAtl-SSTA Regression δz 200mb -Nino 34 δz 200mb -NAtl-SSTA NCEP GFDL AM2.0 CAM3.5
From El Nino to Atlantic Nino: pathways as seen in the QuikScat winds
From El Nino to Atlantic Nino: pathways as seen in the QuikScat winds Rong Fu 1, Lei Huang 1, Hui Wang 2 Presented by Nicole Smith-Downey 1 1 Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin
More informationEl Niño, South American Monsoon, and Atlantic Niño links as detected by a. TOPEX/Jason Observations
El Niño, South American Monsoon, and Atlantic Niño links as detected by a decade of QuikSCAT, TRMM and TOPEX/Jason Observations Rong Fu 1, Lei Huang 1, Hui Wang 2, Paola Arias 1 1 Jackson School of Geosciences,
More informationInvestigate the influence of the Amazon rainfall on westerly wind anomalies and the 2002 Atlantic Nino using QuikScat, Altimeter and TRMM data
Investigate the influence of the Amazon rainfall on westerly wind anomalies and the 2002 Atlantic Nino using QuikScat, Altimeter and TRMM data Rong Fu 1, Mike Young 1, Hui Wang 2, Weiqing Han 3 1 School
More informationThe Texas drought. Kingtse Mo Climate Prediction Center NWS/NCEP/NOAA
The 2011-2012 Texas drought Kingtse Mo Climate Prediction Center NWS/NCEP/NOAA 1 outline Evolution of the 2011-2012 Texas drought Climatology and historical perspective The 2011 drought Onset Feedback
More informationOverview on Climate Predictability and Prediction
Overview on Climate Predictability and Prediction CPPA Principal Investigator's Meeting Silver Spring, Maryland 29 Sep -1 Oct 2008 S. Schubert, H., H. Wang, M. Suarez, Randy Koster, Y. Chang, and many
More informationNorth American Droughts in the 20th Century: Role of SST Variability and Trend
Dust Bowl Drought,, Cimarron County, Oklahoma. (Arthur Rothstein, Farm Security Admin., April 1936.) North American Droughts in the 20th Century: Role of SST Variability and Trend Sumant Nigam, Bin Guan,
More informationDiagnosing the Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American Summer Climate with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)
Diagnosing the Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American Summer Climate with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) Christopher L. Castro and Roger A. Pielke, Sr. Department of
More informationWhy Has the Land Memory Changed?
3236 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 17 Why Has the Land Memory Changed? QI HU ANDSONG FENG Climate and Bio-Atmospheric Sciences Group, School of Natural Resource Sciences, University of Nebraska at Lincoln,
More informationUse of the Combined Pacific Variability Mode for Climate Prediction in North America
Use of the Combined Pacific Variability Mode for Climate Prediction in North America Christopher L. Castro,, Stephen Bieda III, and Francina Dominguez University of Arizona Regional Climate Forum for Northwest
More informationHow Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather. Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK
Teleconnections How Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK Teleconnections Connectedness of large-scale weather patterns across the world If you poke
More informationIAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications
WCRP Workshop on Seasonal Prediction 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications Zhaohui LIN Zhou Guangqing Chen Hong Qin Zhengkun Zeng Qingcun Institute
More informationChristopher L. Castro Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Arizona
Spatiotemporal Variability and Covariability of Temperature, Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation in North America for Regional Climate Model Applications Christopher L. Castro Department of Atmospheric
More informationTROPICAL-EXTRATROPICAL INTERACTIONS
Notes of the tutorial lectures for the Natural Sciences part by Alice Grimm Fourth lecture TROPICAL-EXTRATROPICAL INTERACTIONS Anomalous tropical SST Anomalous convection Anomalous latent heat source Anomalous
More informationMDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL
MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL GLOBAL GRAIN NORTH AMERICA 2014 Agenda Spring Recap North America Forecast El Niño Discussion
More informationAn ENSO-Neutral Winter
An ENSO-Neutral Winter This issue of the Blue Water Outlook newsletter is devoted towards my thoughts on the long range outlook for winter. You will see that I take a comprehensive approach to this outlook
More informationClimatic Role of North American Low-Level Jets on U.S. Regional Tornado Activity
Climatic Role of North American Low-Level Jets on U.S. Regional Tornado Activity Scott Weaver and Stephen Baxter NOAA/Climate Prediction Center 36 th CDPW Motivation The Spring 2011 Tornado outbreaks caused
More informationGreat Plains Drought in Simulations of the Twentieth Century
2178 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E VOLUME 23 Great Plains Drought in Simulations of the Twentieth Century RACHEL R. MCCRARY AND DAVID A. RANDALL Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado (Manuscript
More informationConference on Teleconnections in the Atmosphere and Oceans November Fall-to-winter changes in the El Nino teleconnection
1968-19 Conference on Teleconnections in the Atmosphere and Oceans 17-20 November 2008 Fall-to-winter changes in the El Nino teleconnection BLADE MENDOZA Ileana Universitat de Barcelona, Department D'Astronomia
More information2011 Atlantic Hurricane Activity and Outlooks A Climate/ Historical Perspective
2011 Atlantic Hurricane Activity and Outlooks A Climate/ Historical Perspective Gerry Bell NOAA Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster Climate Prediction Center/ NWS Related Publications: Bell and Chelliah
More informationSeasonal forecasting of climate anomalies for agriculture in Italy: the TEMPIO Project
Seasonal forecasting of climate anomalies for agriculture in Italy: the TEMPIO Project M. Baldi(*), S. Esposito(**), E. Di Giuseppe (**), M. Pasqui(*), G. Maracchi(*) and D. Vento (**) * CNR IBIMET **
More informationImpact of sea surface temperatures on African climate. Alessandra Giannini
Impact of sea surface temperatures on African climate Alessandra Giannini alesall@iri.columbia.edu Outline: Intro/Motivation: demand-driven science, use of seasonal climate prediction, adaptation to climate
More informationClimate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
More information2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response
2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2013 - RMS Cat Response Season Outlook At the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, seasonal forecasts
More informationNOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE. El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation Control of Climate in Puerto Rico
2713 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation Control of Climate in Puerto Rico BJÖRN A. MALMGREN Department of Earth Sciences, University of Göteborg, Goteborg,
More informationWhat We ve Learned from the AMOC Modeling Efforts about AMOC Processes and its Role in Weather and Climate
What We ve Learned from the AMOC Modeling Efforts about AMOC Processes and its Role in Weather and Climate Rong Zhang GFDL/NOAA POS/PSMI Joint Breakout Session 2017 US CLIVAR Summit Baltimore, August 9,
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic NiZo Index
More informationBehind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 2012 Outline Mission Extended Range Outlooks (6-10/8-14)
More information11/24/09 OCN/ATM/ESS The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. What is the PDO? Causes of PDO Skepticism Other variability associated with PDO
11/24/09 OCN/ATM/ESS 587.. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation What is the PDO? Causes of PDO Skepticism Other variability associated with PDO The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). (+) ( ) EOF 1 of SST (+)
More informationAssessment of strategies to project U.S. landfalling hurricanes. Judith Curry
Assessment of strategies to project U.S. landfalling hurricanes Judith Curry Overview Uncertainties in historical landfall data base Impact of modes of natural climate variability Impact of global warming
More informationSeasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections
Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections Doug Smith Walter Orr Roberts memorial lecture, 9 th June 2015 Contents Motivation Practical issues
More informationPage 1 of 5 Home research global climate enso effects Research Effects of El Niño on world weather Precipitation Temperature Tropical Cyclones El Niño affects the weather in large parts of the world. The
More informationAMOC Impacts on Climate
AMOC Impacts on Climate Rong Zhang GFDL/NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA Paleo-AMOC Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA May 24, 2016 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Kuklbrodt et al. 2007 McManus et al.,
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University December 5, 2016 Well after an October that felt more like November, we just finished a November that
More informationPRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response
PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2014 - RMS Event Response 2014 SEASON OUTLOOK The 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season saw the fewest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin
More informationThe Correlation Between Fall and Winter Temperature Anomalies in the Midwest during ENSO Events
The Correlation Between Fall and Winter Temperature Anomalies in the Midwest during ENSO Events Morgan E. Brown Iowa State University Mentors: Ray Arritt and Alan Czarnetzki ABSTRACT According to the National
More informationAMO- and ENSO-Driven Summertime Circulation and Precipitation Variations in North America
University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Papers in Natural Resources Natural Resources, School of 10-1-2012 AMO- and ENSO-Driven Summertime Circulation and Precipitation
More informationChapter outline. Reference 12/13/2016
Chapter 2. observation CC EST 5103 Climate Change Science Rezaul Karim Environmental Science & Technology Jessore University of science & Technology Chapter outline Temperature in the instrumental record
More informationA Perspective On the Climatological Causes Of the Great American Dust Bowl During the Period of
A Perspective On the Climatological Causes Of the Great American Dust Bowl During the Period of 1932-1938 Jonathan Ariel Forest Byrne AMS, NSTA Rising Sun Consulting Boston, MA USA The Dust Bowl of the
More informationSeasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013)
Seasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013) Note: This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation with the Oregon Department
More informationSummer 2018 Southern Company Temperature/Precipitation Forecast
Scott A. Yuknis High impact weather forecasts, climate assessment and prediction. 14 Boatwright s Loop Plymouth, MA 02360 Phone/Fax 508.927.4610 Cell: 508.813.3499 ClimateImpact@comcast.net Climate Impact
More informationPercentage of normal rainfall for April 2018 Departure from average air temperature for April 2018
New Zealand Climate Update No 227, May 2018 Current climate April 2018 Overall, April 2018 was characterised by lower pressure than normal over and to the southeast of New Zealand. Unlike the first three
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University February 7, 2017 What a difference from last year at this time. Temperatures in January and February
More informationSt Lucia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles St Lucia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationWeather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX. Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio
Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Outline A Look Back At 2014 Spring 2015 So Far El Niño Update Climate Prediction
More informationGPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office
GPC Exeter forecast for winter 2015-2016 Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) ensemble prediction system the source for Met Office monthly and seasonal forecasts uses a coupled model (atmosphere
More informationAntigua and Barbuda. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Antigua and Barbuda C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
More informationP2.1 CAN U.S. WEST COAST CLIMATE BE FORCAST? Steve LaDochy*, Jeffrey N. Brown and Mattias Selke California State University, Los Angeles
P2.1 CAN U.S. WEST COAST CLIMATE BE FORCAST? Steve LaDochy*, Jeffrey N. Brown and Mattias Selke California State University, Los Angeles William C. Patzert, JPL NASA 1. Introduction The tropical Pacific
More informationImpacts of Climate on the Corn Belt
Impacts of Climate on the Corn Belt Great Lakes Crop Summit 2015 2015 Evelyn Browning Garriss Conclusions Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows. Recent polar volcano eruptions created a cool
More informationAnalysis of Fall Transition Season (Sept-Early Dec) Why has the weather been so violent?
WEATHER TOPICS Analysis of Fall Transition Season (Sept-Early Dec) 2009 Why has the weather been so violent? As can be seen by the following forecast map, the Fall Transition and early Winter Season of
More informationGrenada. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationInvestigation of the Summer Climate of North America: A Regional Atmospheric Modeling Study
Los Mochis, Mexico. NAME Field Campaign. Summer 2004 Photo by Peter Rogers Investigation of the Summer Climate of North America: A Regional Atmospheric Modeling Study Christopher L. Castro Department of
More informationEl Niño / Southern Oscillation
El Niño / Southern Oscillation Student Packet 2 Use contents of this packet as you feel appropriate. You are free to copy and use any of the material in this lesson plan. Packet Contents Introduction on
More informationMultiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2
Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2 B. Huang 1,2, J. Zhu 1, L. Marx 1, J. L. Kinter 1,2 1 Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies 2 Department of Atmospheric,
More informationTrends in the Character of Hurricanes and their Impact on Heavy Rainfall across the Carolinas
Trends in the Character of Hurricanes and their Impact on Heavy Rainfall across the Carolinas Chip Konrad Carolina Integrated Science and Assessments (CISA) The Southeast Regional Climate Center Department
More informationInter ENSO variability and its influence over the South American monsoon system
Inter ENSO variability and its influence over the South American monsoon system A. R. M. Drumond, T. Ambrizzi To cite this version: A. R. M. Drumond, T. Ambrizzi. Inter ENSO variability and its influence
More informationThe Enhanced Drying Effect of Central-Pacific El Niño on US Winter
1 2 3 The Enhanced Drying Effect of Central-Pacific El Niño on US Winter 4 5 6 Jin-Yi Yu * and Yuhao Zou 7 8 9 Department of Earth System Science University of California, Irvine, CA 10 11 12 13 14 15
More informationThe Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) past, present and future
The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) past, present and future Chris Folland, Jeff Knight, Hans Linderholm, David Fereday, Sarah Ineson and Jim Hurrell CLIVAR C20C WORKSHOP, BEIJING, 25-28 OCT 2010
More informationThe 2009 Hurricane Season Overview
The 2009 Hurricane Season Overview Jae-Kyung Schemm Gerry Bell Climate Prediction Center NOAA/ NWS/ NCEP 1 Overview outline 1. Current status for the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Western Pacific basins
More informationIntensification of Summer Rainfall Variability in the Southeastern United States during Recent Decades
AUGUST 2010 W A N G E T A L. 1007 Intensification of Summer Rainfall Variability in the Southeastern United States during Recent Decades HUI WANG NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs,
More informationThe New Normal or Was It?
The New Normal or Was It? by Chuck Coffey The recent drought has caused many to reflect upon the past and wonder what is in store for the future. Just a couple of years ago, few agricultural producers
More informationThe Stratospheric Link Between the Sun and Climate
The Stratospheric Link Between the Sun and Climate The Stratospheric Link Between the Sun and Climate Mark P. Baldwin Northwest Research Associates, USA SORCE, 27 October 2004 Overview Climatology of the
More informationGlobal Climate Patterns and Their Impacts on North American Weather
Global Climate Patterns and Their Impacts on North American Weather By Julie Malmberg and Jessica Lowrey, Western Water Assessment Introduction This article provides a broad overview of various climate
More informationThe Formation of Precipitation Anomaly Patterns during the Developing and Decaying Phases of ENSO
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2010, VOL. 3, NO. 1, 25 30 The Formation of Precipitation Anomaly Patterns during the Developing and Decaying Phases of ENSO HU Kai-Ming and HUANG Gang State Key
More informationIASCLiP FORECAST FORUM (IFF)
IASCLiP FORECAST FORUM (IFF) August-September-October 2012 Disclaimer: The forecast and the discussions in this forum in no way reflect the opinion of the contributing personnel s institutions and organizations.
More informationJ13.7 ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTABILITY OF SEASONAL CLIMATE MEANS: SENSITIVITY TO ANNUAL CYCLE AND ENSO VARIATIONS
J.7 ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTABILITY OF SEASONAL CLIMATE MEANS: SENSITIVITY TO ANNUAL CYCLE AND ENSO VARIATIONS Cheng-Ta Chen and Chun-Hsien Wu National Taiwan Normal University, Dept. of Earth Sciences, Taipei,
More informationNorth Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Last updated: September 2008
North Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Nicholas.Bond@noaa.gov Last updated: September 2008 Summary. The North Pacific atmosphere-ocean system from fall 2007
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer into Harvest 2016
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer into Harvest 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University September 3, 2016 With school and football season starting a hint of fall is right on time
More informationAMIP-type horizontal resolution experiments with NorESM. Øyvind Seland, Trond Iversen, Ivar Seierstad
AMWG meeting 10th-12th February 2014 AMIP-type horizontal resolution experiments with NorESM Øyvind Seland, Trond Iversen, Ivar Seierstad Motivation: For given a computer resource, ESMs need to balance
More informationRainfall variability over the Indochina peninsula during the Boreal Winter, Part I: Preliminary data analysis
Rainfall variability over the Indochina peninsula during the Boreal Winter, Part I: Preliminary data analysis Sirapong Sooktawee*, sirapong@deqp.go.th; Atsamon Limsakul, atsamon@deqp.go.th, Environmental
More informationFirst-Order Draft Chapter 3 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report
0 Figure... Estimates of linear trends in significant wave height (cm decade - ) for the regions along the major ship routes for the global ocean for the period 0 00. Trends are shown only for the locations
More informationClimate modeling: 1) Why? 2) How? 3) What?
Climate modeling: 1) Why? 2) How? 3) What? Matthew Widlansky mwidlans@hawaii.edu 1) Why model the climate? Hawaii Fiji Sachs and Myhrvold: A Shifting Band of Rain 1 Evidence of Past Climate Change? Mean
More informationClimate Variability and El Niño
Climate Variability and El Niño David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University UF IFAS Extenstion IST January 17, 2017 The El
More informationImpacts of Recent El Niño Modoki on Extreme Climate Conditions In East Asia and the United States during Boreal Summer
Impacts of Recent El Niño Modoki on Extreme Climate Conditions In East Asia and the United States during Boreal Summer Hengyi Weng 1, Karumuri Ashok 1, Swadhin Behera 1, Suryachandra A. Rao 1 and Toshio
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationClimate Impacts to Southwest Water Sector. Dr. Dave DuBois New Mexico State Climatologist
Climate Impacts to Southwest Water Sector Dr. Dave DuBois New Mexico State Climatologist Presented at EPA Extreme Events and Climate Adaptation Planning Workshop June 3, 2015 Water Year Precip. % of Average
More informationA Multidecadal Variation in Summer Season Diurnal Rainfall in the Central United States*
174 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 16 A Multidecadal Variation in Summer Season Diurnal Rainfall in the Central United States* QI HU Climate and Bio-Atmospheric Sciences Group, School of Natural Resource Sciences,
More informationFunding Realities at NOAA Climate Program. NOAA Climate Goal
Funding Realities at NOAA Climate Program Jin Huang NOAA Climate Program Office June 2, 2009 NOAA Climate Goal Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society s Ability to Plan and Respond
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: NOVEMBER 16, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: NOVEMBER 16, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales sroot@weatherbank.com OCTOBER 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy Today s Outline Feature of the month: Southeast Drought Update Climate Forecast Basics
More informationHindcasts of tropical Atlantic SST gradient and South American precipitation: the influences of the ENSO forcing and the Atlantic preconditioning
Hindcasts of tropical Atlantic SST gradient and South American precipitation: the influences of the ENSO forcing and the Atlantic preconditioning Huei-Ping Huang 1, Andrew W. Robertson 2, Yochanan Kushnir
More informationENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency
ENSO Outlook by JMA Hiroyuki Sugimoto El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Outline 1. ENSO impacts on the climate 2. Current Conditions 3. Prediction by JMA/MRI-CGCM 4. Summary
More informationClimate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
More informationOcean-Atmosphere Interactions and El Niño Lisa Goddard
Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions and El Niño Lisa Goddard Advanced Training Institute on Climatic Variability and Food Security 2002 July 9, 2002 Coupled Behavior in tropical Pacific SST Winds Upper Ocean
More informationMidwest/Great Plains Climate-Drought Outlook September 20, 2018
Midwest/Great Plains Climate-Drought Outlook September 20, 2018 Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln School of Natural Resources September 20, 2018 General Information
More informationCuba. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Cuba C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationHindcasts of tropical Atlantic SST gradient and South American precipitation: the influences of the ENSO forcing and the Atlantic preconditioning
Hindcasts of tropical Atlantic SST gradient and South American precipitation: the influences of the ENSO forcing and the Atlantic preconditioning Huei-Ping Huang 1,*, Andrew W. Robertson 2, Yochanan Kushnir
More informationVariability of rainfall in Suriname and the relation with ENSO-SST and TA-SST
Advances in Geosciences, 6, 77 82, 2006 SRef-ID: 1680-7359/adgeo/2006-6-77 European Geosciences Union 2006 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Advances in Geosciences Variability
More informationCharacteristics of Global Precipitable Water Revealed by COSMIC Measurements
Characteristics of Global Precipitable Water Revealed by COSMIC Measurements Ching-Yuang Huang 1,2, Wen-Hsin Teng 1, Shu-Peng Ho 3, Ying-Hwa Kuo 3, and Xin-Jia Zhou 3 1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences,
More informationDynamical Statistical Seasonal Prediction of Atlantic Hurricane Activity at NCEP
Dynamical Statistical Seasonal Prediction of Atlantic Hurricane Activity at NCEP Hui Wang, Arun Kumar, Jae Kyung E. Schemm, and Lindsey Long NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center Fifth Session of North
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today Feature of the month: West Pacific Typhoons Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review
More informationNortheast River Forecast Center s
Northeast River Forecast Center s Apr 13 th Spring Outlook Brought to you by: Edward Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist Overview to Include: Potential flood outlook convective/synoptic conditions
More informationOceanic origin of the interannual and interdecadal variability of the summertime western Pacific subtropical high
Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L13701, doi:10.1029/2008gl034584, 2008 Oceanic origin of the interannual and interdecadal variability of the summertime western Pacific
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. December 15, 2014 Rick Thoman NWS Alaska Region ESSD Climate Services
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING December 15, 2014 Rick Thoman NWS Alaska Region ESSD Climate Services Today Climate Forecast Basics Review of recent climate forecasts and conditions CPC Forecasts
More informationWeakening relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO after mid-1970s
Article Progress of Projects Supported by NSFC Atmospheric Science doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5285-x Weakening relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO after mid-1970s WANG HuiJun 1,2* & HE
More informationAnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season : August 12, 2018 by Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice) Director (Ag), Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service (ABMS) The *AnuMS (Antigua Met Service) is
More informationThe Changing Impact of El Niño on US Winter Temperatures
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 The Changing Impact of El Niño on US Winter Temperatures Jin-Yi Yu *1, Yuhao Zou
More informationPredictability and prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Predictability and prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada Acknowledgements: Gilbert Brunet, Jacques Derome ECMWF Seminar 2010 September
More informationMonsoon Activities in China Tianjun ZHOU
Monsoon Activities in China Tianjun ZHOU Email: zhoutj@lasg.iap.ac.cn CLIVAR AAMP10, Busan,, Korea 18-19 19 June 2010 Outline Variability of EASM -- Interdecadal variability -- Interannual variability
More informationTHE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE TELECONNECTIONS ON WINTER TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEW YORK INTRODUCTION
Middle States Geographer, 2014, 47: 60-67 THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE TELECONNECTIONS ON WINTER TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEW YORK Frederick J. Bloom and Stephen J. Vermette Department of Geography and Planning
More information