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1 Northeast River Forecast Center s Apr 13 th Spring Outlook Brought to you by: Edward Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist Overview to Include: Potential flood outlook convective/synoptic conditions Stream flow-groundwater-soil moisture Snowpack Conditions --- Ice Jams Antecedent Current Future precipitation forecasts Short and Medium Range Met Forecasts (significant events) Flood or Drought Outlook (Near term & Longer term) State of ENSO Seasonal Teleconnections
2 Main Features Outlook: Below Normal Temps Active Pattern Colder than Normal Late March into mid-april Normal or drier than normal the last 2 weeks Normal to above normal snowfall NAO and AO trend more towards neutral Weak La Nina to Neutral ENSO Active Pacific Jet Normal to above normal precipitation expected Much of the ice is out except northern NH/ME Event 16/17 looks like significant QPF.with PTYPE issues northern Basins Teleconnections watching the NAO Negative phase and any blocking
3 90-day Precipitation 90-day Precipitation Normal to Above Normal but Eastern NY into Central New England some below normal
4 30-Day (NERCC) Temperature Departures Precipitation % Temperature Departures Last 30 Days Many below normal locations Cold Precipitation -- % of Normal Last 30 Days Mainly below normal Dry
5 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) March 31st (left) vs April 13 th (right) Current
6 Snow States April 13th 6
7 USGS Streamflow Conditions Daily Average Streamflow
8 USGS Groundwater Conditions
9 Soil Moisture Current Conditions Departures and Percentiles
10 Water Supply/Lake Levels Near and Above Normal MAINE Reservoirs Rangley -- Normal Mooselookmeguntic -- >Normal Richardson -- Normal Aziscohos Errol..Normal Flagstaff - > Normal Moosehead NORMAL Brassau - > Normal
11 Precipitation Forecast 2-Day and 7-Day
12 NERFC 72-Hr River Forecast Minor Riverine Flooding Forecast
13 Short-range Ensemble River Forecasts
14 Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast - HEFS
15 Teleconnections Affect Precip/Temp Can Have Implications on River Flow El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki El Nino (EMI) Nino 3.4 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Arctic Oscillation (AO) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) Pacific North American Index (PNA) SST Anomalies (SSTA) Pacific/Atlantic Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Stratospheric Trends and Temp Anomalies Solar Trends geomagnetic activity, solar flux, sunspots Pattern Persistence Analog Years 15
16 Teleconnection Patterns AO--NAO--PNA
17 MJO Madden-Julian Oscillation Forecast for Phases 2 and 3 MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average.
18 CPC Outlooks 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 6 to 10 day outlooks 8 to 14 day outlooks
19 Closed system to SW April 16th
20 Surface Prognosis Late April Several Storms 4/23 and 4/27
21 ENSO Conditions Weak La Nina to Neutral (La Nada)
22 NERFC Winter Outlook April 13th Flood Potential -- Valid until April 26th A N A N
23 Northeast River Forecast Center s Next Outlook: Friday April 27 th 2018 Ed Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist NOAA/NWS/Northeast River Forecast Center
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